OUT · TickerCove

OUTOutfront Media Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.18 · now $28.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OUT has typically landed between $23.49 and $32.78 — a range of −16.6% to +16.3% from the issuance price $28.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,115 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.18 · 67% of range

$16.52 low$33.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.0%

typical move · IQR 14.2%

−16.6%worst (p90)+16.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OUT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.18 (+0.0%)
typical $28.73 (+2.0%)
middle 50% $26.72–$30.74
90% range $23.49–$32.78

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,115 windows spanning 2014-03-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−73.6%	−73.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−72.2%	−73.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−70.3%	−70.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06	+51.0%	−11.4%	+51.0%
2020-03-20	+50.9%	+0.0%	+79.0%
2020-03-18	+47.3%	−11.7%	+58.0%

3,115 overlapping windows · 2014-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+3.2%

n=12

Feb

58%

+1.8%

n=12

Mar

58%

−2.6%

n=12

Apr

62%

+1.9%

n=13

May

46%

−2.7%

n=13

Jun

77%

+1.1%

n=13

Jul

54%

+2.9%

n=13

Aug

46%

−1.8%

n=13

Sep

46%

−1.5%

n=13

Oct

25%

−1.7%

n=12

Nov

83%

+12.6%

n=12

Dec

58%

+0.8%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Sale	3,385 @ $29.82	$101K	−24.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,420	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	MARTIN PATRICK	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $30.10	$301K	−27.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	26,405	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $32.08	$160K	−8.1% of holding	−1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	56,947	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	3,720 @ $31.36	$117K	−5.6% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	63,227	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	1,280 @ $32.08	$41K	−2.0% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	61,947	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $31.13	$156K	−6.9% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	66,947	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $31.05	$155K	−6.5% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	71,947	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-17	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $31.36	$157K	−6.1% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	76,947	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $31.08	$155K	−5.8% of holding	+7.0%	not yet — horizon still open	81,947	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $31.35	$157K	−5.4% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	86,947	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Norton James Michael	officer	Purchase	4,130 @ $30.81	$127K	ownership Δ n/a	+6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	4,130	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22	Mathes Peter	director	Sale	10,000 @ $33.54	$335K	−19.5% of holding	−2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	41,398	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-31	SIEGEL MATTHEW	officer	Sale	50,000 @ $25.79	$1.3M	−14.7% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	289,925	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Sale	11,271 @ $26.93	$304K	−23.7% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	36,244	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Sale	11,271 @ $24.49	$276K	−19.2% of holding	+2.5%	+20.0%	47,515	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24	Mathes Peter	director	Sale	20,000 @ $22.88	$458K	−28.0% of holding	+3.6%	+32.7%	51,398	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Sale	11,270 @ $22.18	$250K	−16.1% of holding	+1.2%	+31.4%	58,786	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-03	PEP VIII GP LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	8,400,000 @ $18.06	$151.7M	−48.5% of holding	−4.6%	+55.0%	8,913,813	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03	PEP VIII GP LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	8,400,000 @ $18.06	$151.7M	−48.5% of holding	−4.6%	+55.0%	8,913,813	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Sale	4,126 @ $19.38	$80K	−49.7% of holding	−3.5%	+34.4%	4,170	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-16	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	20,109 @ $15.88	$319K	−22.1% of holding	+10.4%	+37.7%	70,836	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13	Sauer Richard H.	officer	Sale	29,891 @ $15.79	$472K	−24.7% of holding	+11.2%	+39.7%	90,945	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Option exercise	10,593	14,723	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Option exercise	10,593	10,593	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Award / grant	426	15,149	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-08-21	Norton James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,464	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	13,805	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Award / grant	164	15,490	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Option exercise	4,507	4,507	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bonanni Mark Emilio	officer	Option exercise	4,507	15,326	Form 4
2026-06-11	Carleton Mark D	director	Option exercise	8,663	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Carleton Mark D	director	Award / grant	339	9,002	Form 4
2026-06-11	Carleton Mark D	director	Option exercise	8,663	8,663	Form 4
2026-06-03	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Option exercise	8,636	44,880	Form 4
2026-06-03	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Award / grant	331	45,211	Form 4
2026-06-03	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Diaz Manuel A.	director	Option exercise	8,636	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Mathes Peter	director	Option exercise	8,636	50,034	Form 4
2026-06-03	Mathes Peter	director	Award / grant	331	50,365	Form 4
2026-06-03	Mathes Peter	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Mathes Peter	director	Option exercise	8,636	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Tolson Susan	director	Option exercise	8,636	77,516	Form 4
2026-06-03	Tolson Susan	director	Award / grant	331	77,847	Form 4
2026-06-03	Carleton Mark D	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Tolson Susan	director	Option exercise	8,636	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Pangis Nicolle Deanna	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	BARRETT MICHAEL G.	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Dominguez Michael J	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Dominguez Michael J	director	Option exercise	8,636	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Dominguez Michael J	director	Award / grant	331	50,166	Form 4
2026-06-03	Dominguez Michael J	director	Option exercise	8,636	49,835	Form 4
2026-06-03	Tolson Susan	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Courtin Angela	director	Option exercise	8,636	76,282	Form 4
2026-06-03	Courtin Angela	director	Award / grant	331	76,613	Form 4
2026-06-03	Courtin Angela	director	Award / grant	5,918	5,918	Form 4
2026-06-03	Courtin Angela	director	Option exercise	8,636	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i