Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.99 · now $33.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OUST has typically landed between $21.68 and $54.66 — a range of −36.2% to +60.8% from the issuance price $33.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OUST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.39 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.55–$40.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.68–$54.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,469 windows spanning 2020-10-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-23 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | −58.8% | −61.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-24 | −58.5% | −58.5% | +7.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-21 | +139.6% | +0.0% | +139.6% |
| 2025-05-27 | +136.6% | +0.0% | +136.6% |
| 2025-05-22 | +130.1% | −1.2% | +130.1% |
1,469 overlapping windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−5.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
−4.5%
n=6
Mar
50%
+3.0%
n=6
Apr
50%
−2.0%
n=6
May
83%
+37.6%
n=6
Jun
50%
+12.7%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.0%
n=6
Aug
17%
−11.4%
n=6
Sep
0%
−12.8%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.7%
n=5
Nov
67%
+9.9%
n=6
Dec
50%
+9.1%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Pacala Charles Angus | director | Sale | 30,385 @ $33.96 | $1.0M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,041,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 18,778 @ $33.96 | $638K | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 318,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 15,686 @ $33.96 | $533K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 245,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | SPENCER DARIEN | officer | Sale | 12,808 @ $33.96 | $435K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 286,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chung Megan | officer | Sale | 11,484 @ $33.96 | $390K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 189,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Jacquemet Cyrille | officer | Sale | 8,896 @ $33.96 | $302K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 17,927 @ $44.65 | $800K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 283,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 13,364 @ $45.52 | $608K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 269,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 8,201 @ $46.40 | $381K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 261,522 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 508 @ $47.09 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 261,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 3,614 @ $45.18 | $163K | −5.6% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 1,386 @ $46.48 | $64K | −2.1% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | SPENCER DARIEN | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $45.00 | $1.4M | −9.1% of holding | −26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Tewksbury Ted L III | director | Sale | 1,695 @ $47.00 | $80K | −1.3% of holding | −18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 54,337 @ $38.82 | $2.1M | −15.3% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Pacala Charles Angus | director | Sale | 29,797 @ $38.82 | $1.2M | −2.7% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,072,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 18,414 @ $38.82 | $715K | −6.2% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,510 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | SPENCER DARIEN | officer | Sale | 12,559 @ $38.82 | $488K | −3.7% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 329,807 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Chung Megan | officer | Sale | 11,261 @ $38.82 | $437K | −5.3% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,859 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Jacquemet Cyrille | officer | Sale | 8,723 @ $38.82 | $339K | −7.1% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 76,582 @ $39.94 | $3.1M | −13.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 70,558 @ $40.90 | $2.9M | −13.9% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 436,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 48,191 @ $41.99 | $2.0M | −11.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 388,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $44.00 | $2.0M | −13.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $43.00 | $1.9M | −11.6% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | SPENCER DARIEN | officer | Sale | 30,001 @ $45.00 | $1.4M | −8.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 19,669 @ $39.16 | $770K | −3.3% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 583,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Jacquemet Cyrille | officer | Sale | 9,433 @ $40.00 | $377K | −7.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 3,742 @ $45.00 | $168K | −1.3% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 294,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $37.16 | $1.5M | −6.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,666 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 35,684 @ $36.39 | $1.3M | −5.3% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 643,666 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Heystee Susan | director | Sale | 9,316 @ $34.80 | $324K | −21.0% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 4,316 @ $36.00 | $155K | −0.7% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $35.00 | $1.4M | −6.0% of holding | +28.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Jacquemet Cyrille | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $35.00 | $350K | −7.0% of holding | +28.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,591 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $32.00 | $1.1M | −4.9% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 677,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 32,500 @ $33.00 | $1.1M | −4.8% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 31,434 @ $31.09 | $977K | −4.2% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 21,341 @ $34.00 | $726K | −2.9% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 13,659 @ $34.00 | $464K | −2.1% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $33.00 | $83K | −0.4% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 674,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Boulet Virginia | director | Purchase | 1,050 @ $25.16 | $26K | +0.5% of holding | +45.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Boulet Virginia | director | Purchase | 608 @ $25.35 | $15K | +0.3% of holding | +45.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 13,451 @ $30.00 | $404K | −1.9% of holding | +60.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $30.00 | $150K | −7.5% of holding | +60.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 21,149 @ $30.13 | $637K | −2.9% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 400 @ $30.00 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $29.02 | $871K | −4.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $28.11 | $843K | −3.9% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 742,297 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $28.00 | $140K | −7.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $27.08 | $812K | −4.0% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $26.08 | $783K | −3.9% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 742,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.15 | $754K | −4.0% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Chung Megan | officer | Sale | 5,837 @ $24.70 | $144K | −2.7% of holding | +38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.00 | $480K | −2.7% of holding | +35.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $22.76 | $910K | −5.3% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $20.94 | $838K | −5.9% of holding | +30.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 636,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Tewksbury Ted L III | director | Sale | 1,695 @ $20.00 | $34K | −1.4% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,969 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Pacala Charles Angus | director | Sale | 24,657 @ $23.43 | $578K | −2.5% of holding | −6.3% | +41.2% | 960,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Sale | 15,689 @ $23.43 | $368K | −2.4% of holding | −6.3% | +41.2% | 636,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Chung Megan | officer | Gift | 2,084 | 200,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Gift | 38,745 | 337,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 376,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 100,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Heystee Susan | director | Award / grant | 660 | 40,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Heystee Susan | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 39,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Correia Christina | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 76,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Eyler Phillip | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 20,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 66,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Tewksbury Ted L III | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 126,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | MADDOCK ERNEST E | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 88,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 50,063 | 679,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 50,063 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 4,316 | 632,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 4,316 | 50,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 668,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 54,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 21,341 | 733,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 31,434 | 743,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 21,341 | 94,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 31,434 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 13,451 | 725,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 13,451 | 31,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 21,149 | 733,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 21,149 | 44,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 712,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 66,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 772,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 66,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 772,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 126,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 742,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 186,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 732,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 216,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 752,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 236,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Pacala Charles Angus | director | Award / grant | 138,376 | 1,099,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Award / grant | 55,351 | 355,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Frichtl Mark | officer | Award / grant | 75,415 | 712,297 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.