OTTROtter Tail CorporationIndustrials · Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.03 · now $89.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OTTR has typically landed between $80.26 and $100.51 — a range of −9.9% to +12.9% from the issuance price $89.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OTTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$80.26worst · -9.9%$100.51best · +12.9%
  • now $89.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.18 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $86.55–$93.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $80.26–$100.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−46.6%−46.6%+2.8%
2008-09-11−43.5%−46.7%+2.5%
2008-09-16−42.5%−44.5%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+50.3%+0.0%+53.9%
2009-03-05+48.2%+0.0%+48.2%
2008-11-19+43.9%−6.5%+43.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
80%
+4.3%
n=20
Apr
55%
−0.1%
n=20
May
40%
−1.3%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+2.4%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.6%
n=20
Oct
75%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
65%
+0.6%
n=20
Dec
70%
+3.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$94$742026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $45K — KNUTSON PAUL L2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $23K — KNUTSON PAUL L2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $326K — KNUTSON PAUL L2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $394K↑ buys↓ salesofficer KNUTSON PAUL L — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KNUTSON PAUL L — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KNUTSON PAUL L — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11KNUTSON PAUL LofficerSale475 @ $94.63$45K−100.0% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10KNUTSON PAUL LofficerSale250 @ $92.84$23K−100.0% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07KNUTSON PAUL LofficerSale3,500 @ $93.11$326K−14.0% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open21,495Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

158 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07KNUTSON PAUL LofficerGift72520,770Form 4
2026-08-07KNUTSON PAUL LofficerGift250250Form 4
2026-08-07KNUTSON PAUL LofficerGift475475Form 4
2026-04-13Nelson Tyler JofficerAward / grant800800Form 4
2026-04-13Smestad Jennifer O.officerAward / grant5,8005,800Form 4
2026-04-13ROGELSTAD TIMOTHY JofficerAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-04-13Wahlund Todd RofficerAward / grant300300Form 4
2026-04-13Johnson Kathryn OdirectorAward / grant1,50029,453Form 4
2026-04-13WEBB THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant1,50017,600Form 4
2026-04-13ERICKSON JOHN DdirectorAward / grant1,5003,133Form 4
2026-04-13Rasche Steven PdirectorAward / grant1,9002,000Form 4
2026-04-13LeBeau Michael EdirectorAward / grant1,5009,300Form 4
2026-04-13Ludford Mary EdirectorAward / grant1,5007,071Form 4
2026-04-13ERICKSON JOHN DdirectorAward / grant1,5003,133Form 4
2026-04-13Clark Christopher BdirectorAward / grant1,9001,900Form 4
2026-04-13LeBeau Michael EdirectorAward / grant1,5009,300Form 4
2026-04-13WEBB THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant1,50017,600Form 4
2026-04-13PARTAIN NATHAN IdirectorAward / grant2,00010,969Form 4
2026-04-13Crain Jeanne HdirectorAward / grant1,5007,071Form 4
2026-04-13Ludford Mary EdirectorAward / grant1,5007,071Form 4
2026-04-13Rasche Steven PdirectorAward / grant1,9002,000Form 4
2026-04-13Johnson Kathryn OdirectorAward / grant1,50029,453Form 4
2026-04-13PARTAIN NATHAN IdirectorAward / grant2,00010,969Form 4
2026-04-13Clark Christopher BdirectorAward / grant1,9001,900Form 4
2026-04-13Crain Jeanne HdirectorAward / grant1,5007,071Form 4
2026-04-08Wahlund Todd RofficerOption exercise46010,533Form 4
2026-04-08Wahlund Todd RofficerWithheld for tax18610,347Form 4
2026-04-08Wahlund Todd RofficerOption exercise4600Form 4
2026-02-11MACFARLANE CHARLES SofficerAward / grant47,700275,112Form 4
2026-02-11MACFARLANE CHARLES SofficerWithheld for tax23,515251,597Form 4
2026-02-11ROGELSTAD TIMOTHY JofficerAward / grant8,40065,292Form 4
2026-02-11Abbott John SofficerAward / grant8,40055,105Form 4
2026-02-11Smestad Jennifer O.officerAward / grant6,00022,168Form 4
2026-02-11ROGELSTAD TIMOTHY JofficerWithheld for tax4,21261,080Form 4
2026-02-11Abbott John SofficerWithheld for tax4,20950,896Form 4
2026-02-11KNUTSON PAUL LofficerAward / grant3,60026,575Form 4
2026-02-11Smestad Jennifer O.officerWithheld for tax3,03119,137Form 4
2026-02-11KNUTSON PAUL LofficerWithheld for tax1,59224,983Form 4
2026-02-10ROGELSTAD TIMOTHY JofficerAward / grant1,6001,600Form 4
2026-02-10Abbott John SofficerAward / grant1,6001,600Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.