OTLY · TickerCove

OTLYOatly Group ABConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.25 · now $12.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OTLY has typically landed between $8.60 and $15.98 — a range of −29.8% to +30.4% from the issuance price $12.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,316 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.25 · 42% of range

$8.03 low$18.09 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−6.6%

typical move · IQR 24.4%

−29.8%worst (p90)+30.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OTLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.25 (+0.0%)
typical $11.44 (-6.6%)
middle 50% $9.95–$12.94
90% range $8.6–$15.98

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,316 windows spanning 2021-05-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-01-24	−50.4%	−50.4%	+0.0%
2023-09-28	−48.3%	−48.3%	+1.8%
2023-09-27	−47.0%	−47.0%	+1.2%
3 best
2023-11-14	+158.5%	+0.0%	+158.5%
2023-11-13	+138.0%	+0.0%	+142.0%
2023-11-15	+130.2%	+0.0%	+158.5%

1,316 overlapping windows · 2021-05-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

+5.2%

n=5

Feb

20%

−5.4%

n=5

Mar

40%

−7.3%

n=5

Apr

60%

−4.1%

n=5

May

40%

−4.2%

n=5

Jun

50%

+0.7%

n=6

Jul

67%

+8.4%

n=6

Aug

33%

−5.4%

n=6

Sep

−14.7%

n=6

Oct

−16.8%

n=5

Nov

20%

−1.1%

n=5

Dec

40%

+1.4%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-02	Ordonez Daniel Eduardo	officer	Sale	39,066 @ $8.95	$350K	−14.3% of holding	+19.9%	not yet — horizon still open	234,725	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Broadbent Simon Kenneth James	officer	Sale	7,820 @ $8.95	$70K	−11.1% of holding	+19.9%	not yet — horizon still open	62,845	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Lind Martin Fredrik	officer	Sale	2,968 @ $8.96	$27K	−14.1% of holding	+19.9%	not yet — horizon still open	18,088	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Flatin Jean-Christophe Marie	officer	Sale	1,934 @ $8.94	$17K	−0.8% of holding	+19.9%	not yet — horizon still open	245,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-30	Shiburi Rholane Hoshana	director	Disposition	176	792	Form 4
2026-05-30	Hard Lillis Ulf Andreas	director	Disposition	131	616	Form 4
2026-05-30	Christenson Gregory Stephen	director	Award / grant	23,656	33,145	Form 4
2026-05-30	David Marie-Jose	officer	Award / grant	24,875	86,198	Form 4
2026-05-30	David Marie-Jose	officer	Award / grant	45,228	45,228	Form 4
2026-05-30	Flatin Jean-Christophe Marie	officer	Award / grant	74,626	247,334	Form 4
2026-05-30	Flatin Jean-Christophe Marie	officer	Award / grant	135,685	135,685	Form 4
2026-05-30	Hard Lillis Ulf Andreas	director	Award / grant	298	747	Form 4
2026-05-30	Jones Hannah Ceri	director	Award / grant	23,656	35,846	Form 4
2026-05-30	Lind Martin Fredrik	officer	Award / grant	9,950	21,056	Form 4
2026-05-30	Mattsson Pontus	officer	Award / grant	14,925	14,925	Form 4
2026-05-30	Melloul Eric	director	Award / grant	29,962	39,451	Form 4
2026-05-30	RATHKE FRANCES G	director	Award / grant	23,656	35,846	Form 4
2026-05-30	Ordonez Daniel Eduardo	officer	Award / grant	74,626	273,791	Form 4
2026-05-30	Ordonez Daniel Eduardo	officer	Award / grant	135,685	135,685	Form 4
2026-05-30	Shiburi Rholane Hoshana	director	Award / grant	422	968	Form 4
2026-05-30	Brok Martin	director	Award / grant	25,646	79,597	Form 4
2026-05-30	Broadbent Simon Kenneth James	officer	Award / grant	34,825	70,665	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i