Issued 2026-08-21 at $1.10 · now $0.64 (2026-09-25, −41.9% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-21 close, OTLK has typically landed between $0.67 and $1.61 — a range of −38.8% to +46.3% from the issuance price $1.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,537 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-06-14 – 2026-07-23 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,405 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-21 issuance close ($1.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-21, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OTLK has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-21 close of $1.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $0.6395 (-41.9%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.07 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.9243–$1.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.6735–$1.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,561 windows spanning 2016-06-14 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-08-08 | −87.8% | −87.8% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-09 | −87.1% | −87.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-07 | −86.8% | −86.8% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-18 | +619.9% | −0.3% | +619.9% |
| 2026-05-19 | +591.8% | +0.0% | +622.4% |
| 2026-05-15 | +588.3% | +0.0% | +588.3% |
2,561 overlapping windows · 2016-06-14 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A 3-month Study to Compare the Safety of ONS-5010 in Vials Versus Pre-filled Syringe in Subjects With Visual Impairment Due to Retinal Disorders (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+3.3%
n=10
Feb
40%
+14.0%
n=10
Mar
30%
−9.6%
n=10
Apr
50%
−7.1%
n=10
May
70%
+33.1%
n=10
Jun
40%
+7.6%
n=10
Jul
55%
+0.3%
n=11
Aug
27%
−19.4%
n=11
Sep
55%
+4.5%
n=11
Oct
50%
+17.7%
n=10
Nov
20%
−10.3%
n=10
Dec
30%
−10.7%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | +1698.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | +1698.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | +1698.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 101,010 | — | +1698.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Purchase | 151,515 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 2,525,252 @ $0.99 | $2.5M | +11.4% of holding | −38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,617,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 2,525,252 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,525,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath | director | Purchase | 95,398 @ $1.05 | $100K | +76.0% of holding | −41.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Haddadin Yezan Munther | director | Purchase | 29,000 @ $0.83 | $24K | +78.0% of holding | +79.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 8,539,709 @ $0.59 | $5.0M | +63.0% of holding | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,092,068 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 8,571,428 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,571,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 8,571,428 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,571,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 8,571,428 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,571,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Purchase | 3,458,571 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +129.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath | director | Purchase | 122,174 @ $0.41 | $50K | +3593.4% of holding | +194.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,574 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | HILZINGER KURT J | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $0.44 | $177K | +1691.0% of holding | +304.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 423,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Haddadin Yezan Munther | director | Purchase | 34,000 @ $0.44 | $15K | +1073.6% of holding | +304.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | THURMAN RANDY H | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $0.43 | $2K | +843.2% of holding | +304.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-26 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.69 | $28K | +528.5% of holding | −5.4% | −77.2% | 5,946 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-15 | Syntone Ventures LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714,286 | — | +72.1% of holding | −17.9% | −57.5% | 1,705,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-15 | Syntone Ventures LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,071,429 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −17.9% | −57.5% | 1,071,429 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-28 | Haddadin Yezan Munther | director | Purchase | 1,882 @ $11.82 | $22K | +59.4% of holding | −21.3% | −63.4% | 5,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | Evanson Jeff | officer | Purchase | 62,484 @ $0.42 | $26K | +8.4% of holding | +12.5% | −9.0% | 808,459 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lundquist Kevin Michael | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | KENYON LAWRENCE A | director | Award / grant | 210,078 | 210,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 8,571,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 8,571,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 8,571,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Code H | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Auffarth Gerd | director | Award / grant | 58,648 | 58,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Huang Andong | director | Award / grant | 53,316 | 53,316 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | HILZINGER KURT J | director | Award / grant | 90,638 | 90,638 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Haller Julia A | director | Award / grant | 58,648 | 58,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath | director | Award / grant | 117,296 | 117,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Haddadin Yezan Munther | director | Award / grant | 95,969 | 95,969 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Gangolli Julian S | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | HILZINGER KURT J | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Haddadin Yezan Munther | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Huang Andong | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Auffarth Gerd | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | THURMAN RANDY H | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Haller Julia A | director | Award / grant | 286,734 | 286,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Jahr Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 800,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 4,285,714 | 13,552,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 8,571,428 | 8,571,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 8,571,428 | 8,571,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 8,571,428 | 8,571,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-04 | Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath | director | Award / grant | 12,323 | 12,323 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-17 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Disposition | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-17 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 3,458,571 | 3,458,571 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-17 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Option exercise | 3,458,571 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-17 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 3,458,571 | 3,458,571 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-17 | Sukhtian Ghiath M. | director | Award / grant | 3,458,571 | 3,458,571 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-03 | HILZINGER KURT J | director | Award / grant | 18,672 | 18,672 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-03 | Huang Andong | director | Award / grant | 10,984 | 10,984 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-03 | Auffarth Gerd | director | Award / grant | 12,082 | 12,082 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.