OTISOtis Worldwide CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $69.25 · now $69.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OTIS has typically landed between $62.89 and $74.86 — a range of −9.2% to +8.1% from the issuance price $69.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,611 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($69.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OTIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $69.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$62.89worst · -9.2%$74.86best · +8.1%
  • now $69.25 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $69.51 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.03–$71.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.89–$74.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,611 windows spanning 2020-03-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-03-02−17.7%−18.9%+0.0%
2026-02-27−17.5%−17.9%+1.2%
2026-02-26−17.0%−17.0%+2.4%
3 best
2020-05-06+21.7%−0.6%+21.7%
2022-10-14+21.3%+0.0%+21.3%
2020-05-14+20.6%+0.0%+28.1%

1,611 overlapping windows · 2020-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$27.4B
market cap
$3.89
EPS (TTM)
18.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$14.4B
'20'25
Net income$1.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-25.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-1.62
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $69.25$65.25$123.24
  • DCF (intrinsic)$86.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$119.24
  • Analyst target · range $77.00–$105.00$92.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$69.25

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−0.3%
n=6
Feb
67%
+2.7%
n=6
Mar
50%
−0.6%
n=6
Apr
57%
−0.4%
n=7
May
57%
+0.1%
n=7
Jun
71%
+3.0%
n=7
Jul
71%
+2.6%
n=7
Aug
57%
−1.2%
n=7
Sep
29%
−2.3%
n=7
Oct
33%
−0.2%
n=6
Nov
83%
+5.7%
n=6
Dec
67%
+0.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$93$682026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $125K — Lefebure Thibault Pierre Marie2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — de Montlivault Stephane2026-02-10: 3 insider sales, $2.6M — LaFreniere Nora E., Ryan Michael Patrick …2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $5.1M — Marks Judith Fran2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — Marks Judith Fran2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $519K — Green Neil2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $278K — Ryan Michael Patrick2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $278K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $16.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $125K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lefebure Thibault Pierre Marie — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed same dayofficer de Montlivault Stephane — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LaFreniere Nora E. — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same daydirector LaFreniere Nora E. — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same dayofficer Ryan Michael Patrick — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same daydirector Marks Judith Fran — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed same daydirector Marks Judith Fran — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Green Neil — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ryan Michael Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-07Lefebure Thibault Pierre MarieofficerSale1,628 @ $76.89$125K−28.9% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open4,008Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12de Montlivault StephaneofficerSale47,944 @ $92.25$4.4M−62.2% of holding−6.7%−34.6%29,176Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorSale25,625 @ $90.38$2.3M−64.9% of holding−4.1%−29.7%13,880Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorSale1,793 @ $90.38$162K−4.3% of holding−4.1%−29.7%39,505Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10Ryan Michael PatrickofficerSale1,182 @ $90.06$106K−25.2% of holding−4.1%−29.7%3,504Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Marks Judith FrandirectorSale56,107 @ $90.89$5.1M−19.5% of holding−3.7%−32.8%231,072Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Marks Judith FrandirectorSale46,780 @ $89.57$4.2M−16.8% of holding+1.2%−30.0%231,072Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Green NeildirectorSale6,000 @ $86.45$519K−61.4% of holding+7.8%−25.1%3,773Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05Ryan Michael PatrickofficerSale3,028 @ $91.69$278K−53.5% of holding−6.0%−26.7%2,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10de Montlivault StephaneofficerSale3,623 @ $105.34$382K−5.1% of holding−1.4%−31.2%66,968Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10de Montlivault StephaneofficerSale3,037 @ $105.25$320K−4.5% of holding−1.4%−31.2%63,931Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13de Montlivault StephaneofficerSale25,003 @ $97.14$2.4M−27.2% of holding+10.8%−15.8%66,968Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-10Marks Judith FrandirectorSale28,440 @ $95.77$2.7M−11.0% of holding+12.0%−14.4%230,153Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorSale1,700 @ $95.91$163K−6.4% of holding+12.0%−14.4%24,927Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerWithheld for tax2748,112Form 4
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerOption exercise9331,875Form 4
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerOption exercise9338,386Form 4
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerOption exercise9338,386Form 4
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerOption exercise9338,386Form 4
2026-09-02Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerOption exercise9338,386Form 4
2026-08-23Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorWithheld for tax83810,556Form 4
2026-08-23Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorOption exercise2,1372,145Form 4
2026-08-23Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorOption exercise2,13711,394Form 4
2026-08-23Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorOption exercise2,13711,394Form 4
2026-08-03KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant29119,941Form 4
2026-06-02Armas Joseph JayofficerWithheld for tax4212,990Form 4
2026-06-02Armas Joseph JayofficerOption exercise1,6803,362Form 4
2026-06-02Armas Joseph JayofficerOption exercise1,6803,411Form 4
2026-06-02Armas Joseph JayofficerOption exercise1,6803,411Form 4
2026-05-27WALKER JOHN HdirectorAward / grant4,80634,457Form 4
2026-05-27PRESTON MARGARET M VdirectorAward / grant4,59725,777Form 4
2026-05-27Brannon JilldirectorAward / grant4,52713,624Form 4
2026-05-27Black Jeffrey HarrydirectorAward / grant2,80019,498Form 4
2026-05-27Hannan Kathy HopinkahdirectorAward / grant2,75818,958Form 4
2026-05-27Connors Nelda JdirectorAward / grant2,71614,414Form 4
2026-05-27Bartlett Thomas AdirectorAward / grant2,7168,174Form 4
2026-05-27KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant2,59119,544Form 4
2026-05-27Stewart Shelley JRdirectorAward / grant2,59118,601Form 4
2026-03-02Lopez Nicolas EduardoofficerAward / grant4,6854,685Form 4
2026-03-01Loh SallyofficerWithheld for tax26445,507Form 4
2026-03-01Loh SallyofficerOption exercise1,2560Form 4
2026-03-01Loh SallyofficerOption exercise1,25645,771Form 4
2026-03-01Loh SallyofficerOption exercise1,25645,771Form 4
2026-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorOption exercise5,10744,612Form 4
2026-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorDisposition3,31441,298Form 4
2026-02-10LaFreniere Nora E.directorOption exercise5,1070Form 4
2026-02-07Marks Judith FrandirectorWithheld for tax5,318244,063Form 4
2026-02-07LaFreniere Nora E.directorWithheld for tax75139,505Form 4
2026-02-07Zheng PeimingofficerWithheld for tax65022,455Form 4
2026-02-07Green NeildirectorWithheld for tax1847,466Form 4
2026-02-07Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorWithheld for tax1339,257Form 4
2026-02-07Lefebure Thibault Pierre MarieofficerWithheld for tax1055,636Form 4
2026-02-07Ryan Michael PatrickofficerWithheld for tax1004,686Form 4
2026-02-07Gosk Kimberly ShannonofficerWithheld for tax967,453Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.