Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.62 · now $10.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OTF has typically landed between $9.37 and $11.75 — a range of −11.8% to +10.7% from the issuance price $10.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
296 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OTF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.46 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.06–$10.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.37–$11.75
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −20.0% | −20.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | −16.4% | −18.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −16.3% | −16.3% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-31 | +17.5% | +0.0% | +18.0% |
| 2026-07-13 | +15.6% | −2.8% | +15.6% |
| 2026-07-30 | +15.3% | +0.0% | +18.8% |
296 overlapping windows · 2025-06-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $11.37 | $11K | +50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Temple Chris | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $10.71 | $75K | +140.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Weiler Melissa | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.90 | $109K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.74 | $11K | +100.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Temple Chris | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.49 | $57K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.7% | −7.7% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 699 @ $11.45 | $8K | +232.2% of holding | +16.7% | −7.7% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 61 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 301 @ $11.42 | $3K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.7% | −7.7% | 301 | Form 4 · filed 61 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Bissonnette Erik | officer | Purchase | 12,500 @ $13.27 | $166K | +8.7% of holding | +1.3% | −29.6% | 156,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Bissonnette Erik | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.70 | $74K | +3.1% of holding | −5.1% | −21.3% | 166,525 | Form 4 · filed 147 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Bissonnette Erik | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.70 | $74K | +3.2% of holding | −5.1% | −21.3% | 161,525 | Form 4 · filed 147 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.