Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.69 · now $21.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OSW has typically landed between $18.79 and $25.30 — a range of −13.3% to +16.6% from the issuance price $21.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,196 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OSW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.05 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.66–$23.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.79–$25.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,196 windows spanning 2017-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −82.9% | −82.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −81.3% | −81.3% | +0.8% |
| 2020-03-04 | −79.6% | −79.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-02 | +140.6% | +0.0% | +156.6% |
| 2020-04-03 | +123.5% | +0.0% | +150.6% |
| 2020-04-07 | +87.2% | +0.0% | +110.2% |
2,196 overlapping windows · 2017-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.1%
n=9
Feb
56%
+0.2%
n=9
Mar
56%
−4.1%
n=9
Apr
56%
+6.9%
n=9
May
44%
+1.1%
n=9
Jun
56%
+0.3%
n=9
Jul
78%
+3.4%
n=9
Aug
67%
+4.5%
n=9
Sep
11%
−3.8%
n=9
Oct
75%
+2.9%
n=8
Nov
75%
+7.2%
n=8
Dec
78%
+4.6%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 4,781 @ $26.07 | $125K | −1.6% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 302,145 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 25,219 @ $26.42 | $666K | −7.6% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,926 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.45 | $529K | −4.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 478,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.40 | $264K | −10.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.04 | $521K | −3.9% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 489,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 10,500 @ $24.67 | $259K | −7.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 58,642 @ $24.14 | $1.4M | −5.0% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 57,051 @ $24.07 | $1.4M | −4.7% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,167,191 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 31,431 @ $24.03 | $755K | −2.5% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,224,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 1,504 @ $24.01 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,255,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 42,883 @ $24.56 | $1.1M | −3.3% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,257,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 8,489 @ $25.26 | $214K | −0.6% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,300,060 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $20.86 | $125K | −3.9% of holding | +16.0% | −7.4% | 147,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 4,528 @ $20.21 | $92K | −2.8% of holding | +3.1% | +20.1% | 154,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 472 @ $20.23 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | +3.1% | +20.1% | 159,410 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $20.19 | $404K | −3.8% of holding | +7.7% | +12.6% | 509,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 10,282 @ $20.12 | $207K | −0.9% of holding | +7.7% | +12.6% | 1,182,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Sale | 8,569 @ $21.12 | $181K | −2.4% of holding | +7.7% | +12.6% | 351,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 6,028 @ $22.24 | $134K | −9.8% of holding | −12.6% | −14.2% | 55,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 8,845 @ $22.63 | $200K | −12.6% of holding | −9.9% | −13.0% | 61,515 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 11,057 @ $22.59 | $250K | −13.6% of holding | −7.6% | −13.5% | 70,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 13,077 @ $22.94 | $300K | −13.8% of holding | −8.1% | −12.5% | 81,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 22,192 @ $22.40 | $497K | −19.0% of holding | −7.9% | −9.6% | 94,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 21,739 @ $22.91 | $498K | −15.7% of holding | −7.9% | −11.0% | 116,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 13,374 @ $22.42 | $300K | −8.8% of holding | −8.8% | −11.6% | 138,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 31,289 @ $21.59 | $676K | −8.6% of holding | −4.1% | −9.0% | 332,145 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-21 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 23,116 @ $21.57 | $499K | −13.2% of holding | −4.1% | −9.0% | 151,799 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 6,060 @ $21.74 | $132K | −100.0% of holding | −2.4% | −4.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 4,597 @ $21.72 | $100K | −2.6% of holding | −2.4% | −4.8% | 174,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 22,841 @ $21.89 | $500K | −11.3% of holding | −1.0% | −4.2% | 179,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 18,711 @ $21.84 | $409K | −4.9% of holding | −1.0% | −4.2% | 363,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $21.87 | $219K | −2.6% of holding | −1.0% | −4.2% | 382,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 13,586 @ $22.05 | $300K | −6.3% of holding | −2.4% | −5.3% | 202,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 4,528 @ $22.09 | $100K | −42.8% of holding | −2.4% | −5.3% | 6,060 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 9,237 @ $21.63 | $200K | −4.1% of holding | −3.1% | +0.8% | 215,939 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 4,625 @ $21.64 | $100K | −30.4% of holding | −3.1% | +0.8% | 10,588 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 4,587 @ $21.81 | $100K | −23.2% of holding | −1.6% | −1.3% | 15,213 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Sale | 1,147 @ $22.03 | $25K | −0.5% of holding | −1.6% | −1.3% | 225,176 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.33 | $48K | −1.6% of holding | +6.1% | −10.0% | 154,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 37,933 @ $19.58 | $743K | −3.3% of holding | +6.0% | −12.4% | 1,105,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 236,433 @ $19.50 | $4.6M | −17.1% of holding | +5.5% | −11.9% | 1,143,432 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 14,189 @ $19.35 | $275K | −8.3% of holding | −1.1% | −5.8% | 156,728 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 18,372 @ $19.50 | $358K | −1.3% of holding | −3.1% | −5.0% | 1,361,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 51,003 @ $19.30 | $984K | −3.5% of holding | −2.2% | −4.8% | 1,387,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 7,202 @ $19.51 | $140K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | −4.8% | 1,379,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 4,401 @ $19.30 | $85K | −0.3% of holding | −8.9% | +5.5% | 1,438,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $19.14 | $2.9M | −9.4% of holding | −3.1% | +11.7% | 1,442,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Sale | 94,596 @ $19.29 | $1.8M | −5.6% of holding | −3.1% | +11.7% | 1,592,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Sale | 18,000 @ $20.40 | $367K | −9.5% of holding | −3.7% | −4.5% | 170,917 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | STIEFLER JEFFREY E | director | Award / grant | 8,956 | 128,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | POWELL STEPHEN W. | director | Award / grant | 10,882 | 144,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Myers Lisa | director | Award / grant | 4,815 | 26,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Award / grant | 4,815 | 142,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Magliacano Marc | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 29,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Hasiba Adam | director | Award / grant | 4,815 | 26,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 8,282 | 498,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Award / grant | 4,815 | 60,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Banikarim Maryam | director | Award / grant | 4,815 | 93,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Other acquisition | 73,385 | 1,408,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Other acquisition | 59,412 | 391,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Award / grant | 84,062 | 1,381,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Award / grant | 35,026 | 450,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Award / grant | 35,026 | 450,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Award / grant | 84,062 | 1,381,934 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Gift | 1,000 | 153,882 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Award / grant | 64,201 | 415,451 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Award / grant | 115,562 | 1,297,872 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | POWELL STEPHEN W. | director | Award / grant | 12,777 | 133,471 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Hasiba Adam | director | Award / grant | 9,385 | 51,345 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | FUSFIELD GLENN | director | Award / grant | 5,654 | 226,323 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Banikarim Maryam | director | Award / grant | 5,654 | 88,725 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 9,385 | 529,817 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | McLallen Walter Field | director | Award / grant | 5,654 | 159,882 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Magliacano Marc | director | Award / grant | 9,385 | 55,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Myers Lisa | director | Award / grant | 5,654 | 21,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | STIEFLER JEFFREY E | director | Award / grant | 10,516 | 119,588 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Other acquisition | 18,886 | 1,686,966 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Other acquisition | 15,209 | 322,889 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Bonner Susan Reardon | officer | Other acquisition | 10,868 | 256,924 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Bonner Susan Reardon | officer | Award / grant | 40,796 | 267,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Bonner Susan Reardon | officer | Award / grant | 40,796 | 267,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Award / grant | 141,792 | 1,705,852 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Award / grant | 141,792 | 1,705,852 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Award / grant | 57,092 | 338,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Award / grant | 57,092 | 338,098 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-10 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Other acquisition | 79,753 | 1,564,060 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-10 | LAZARUS STEPHEN | officer | Other acquisition | 64,223 | 281,006 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-10 | Bonner Susan Reardon | officer | Other acquisition | 38,076 | 226,996 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | FLUXMAN LEONARD I | director | Other acquisition | 22,298 | 1,643,813 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.