OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.73 · now $4.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OSG has typically landed between $3.72 and $5.81 — a range of −21.4% to +22.8% from the issuance price $4.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,344 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OSG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.72worst · -21.4%$5.81best · +22.8%
  • now $4.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.63 (-2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.25–$5.01
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.72–$5.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,344 windows spanning 2013-05-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−56.9%−56.9%+0.0%
2020-02-24−50.6%−56.0%+0.0%
2020-02-21−50.4%−56.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+65.9%+0.0%+69.1%
2022-05-10+54.4%+0.0%+54.4%
2014-02-04+54.0%+0.0%+54.9%

3,344 overlapping windows · 2013-05-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
15%
−4.7%
n=13
Feb
54%
+2.9%
n=13
Mar
15%
−9.1%
n=13
Apr
54%
+0.6%
n=13
May
46%
+0.6%
n=13
Jun
57%
−1.4%
n=14
Jul
57%
+1.2%
n=14
Aug
36%
−1.4%
n=14
Sep
36%
−4.2%
n=14
Oct
77%
+3.9%
n=13
Nov
77%
+8.4%
n=13
Dec
54%
+0.3%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$42026-01-02: 1 insider purchase, $91K — LeBlanc Claude2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $91K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LeBlanc Claude — Purchase on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-01-02LeBlanc ClaudedirectorPurchase12,000 @ $7.59$91K+1.2% of holding−20.9%−25.0%1,033,777Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-09LeBlanc ClaudedirectorWithheld for tax21,7771,065,234Form 4
2026-07-09Trick DavidofficerWithheld for tax6,741267,096Form 4
2026-07-09Smith R SharonofficerWithheld for tax4,635156,326Form 4
2026-07-09LeBlanc ClaudedirectorOption exercise39,380480,832Form 4
2026-07-09Smith R SharonofficerOption exercise11,779132,093Form 4
2026-07-09Trick DavidofficerOption exercise13,206124,978Form 4
2026-07-09LeBlanc ClaudedirectorOption exercise39,3801,087,011Form 4
2026-07-09Trick DavidofficerOption exercise13,206273,837Form 4
2026-07-09Smith R SharonofficerOption exercise11,779160,961Form 4
2026-07-09LeBlanc ClaudedirectorOption exercise39,3801,087,011Form 4
2026-07-09Smith R SharonofficerOption exercise11,779160,961Form 4
2026-07-09Trick DavidofficerOption exercise13,206273,837Form 4
2026-07-01HAFT IAN DAVIDdirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-07-01IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-07-01LAMMTENNANT JOAN MdirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-07-01Matus Kristi AnndirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-07-01PRICE MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-07-01Stein Jeffrey ScottdirectorAward / grant6,50022,591Form 4
2026-04-01LAMMTENNANT JOAN MdirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-04-01PRICE MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-04-01Stein Jeffrey ScottdirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-04-01IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-04-01HAFT IAN DAVIDdirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-04-01Matus Kristi AnndirectorAward / grant7,44116,091Form 4
2026-03-23Smith R SharonofficerAward / grant24,375120,314Form 4
2026-03-23LeBlanc ClaudedirectorAward / grant99,375520,212Form 4
2026-03-23METZ LAWRENCE F.officerAward / grant28,24628,246Form 4
2026-03-23Trick DavidofficerAward / grant26,250138,184Form 4
2026-03-23Ahn Cristina E.officerAward / grant8,0679,718Form 4
2026-03-23Ahn Cristina E.officerAward / grant8,0679,718Form 4
2026-03-10Ahn Cristina E.officerWithheld for tax203632Form 4
2026-03-10Ahn Cristina E.officerOption exercise835835Form 4
2026-03-10Ahn Cristina E.officerOption exercise8351,651Form 4
2026-03-10Ahn Cristina E.officerOption exercise835835Form 4
2026-03-10Ahn Cristina E.officerOption exercise8351,651Form 4
2026-03-03LeBlanc ClaudedirectorWithheld for tax10,6941,047,631Form 4
2026-03-03Trick DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,715260,631Form 4
2026-03-03Smith R SharonofficerWithheld for tax1,541149,182Form 4
2026-03-03LeBlanc ClaudedirectorOption exercise24,5481,058,325Form 4
2026-03-03LeBlanc ClaudedirectorOption exercise47,130466,487Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.