ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.12 · now $9.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORN has typically landed between $6.93 and $12.04 — a range of −24.0% to +32.0% from the issuance price $9.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-12-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ORN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.93worst · -24.0%$12.04best · +32.0%
  • now $9.12 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.21 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.08–$10.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.93–$12.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2007-12-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−65.7%−65.7%+0.6%
2020-02-18−63.9%−63.9%+0.0%
2020-02-14−63.8%−65.9%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+161.9%+0.0%+161.9%
2008-11-19+128.0%−11.4%+129.5%
2008-11-21+127.8%+0.0%+127.8%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2007-12-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Feb
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Apr
42%
+1.0%
n=19
May
58%
+7.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
47%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
32%
−3.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
56%
−2.4%
n=18
Nov
61%
+8.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$72026-07-31: 4 insider purchases, $321K — LEDFORD ROBERT, Vasquez Alison Gaut, Earle Edward Chipman, Sullivan Mary E2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $168K — FORAN MARGARET M2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $146K — FORAN MARGARET M2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $292K — FORAN MARGARET M2026-03-10: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — SHANFELTER AUSTIN J, Smith Quentin P. Jr.2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Vasquez Alison Gaut2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $607K2026-07: 4 open-market purchases, $321K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LEDFORD ROBERT — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Vasquez Alison Gaut — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Earle Edward Chipman — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sullivan Mary E — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FORAN MARGARET M — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FORAN MARGARET M — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector FORAN MARGARET M — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SHANFELTER AUSTIN J — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed same daydirector Smith Quentin P. Jr. — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Vasquez Alison Gaut — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31LEDFORD ROBERTdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $9.62$192K+86.5% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open43,112Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31Vasquez Alison GautofficerPurchase5,025 @ $9.95$50K+9.1% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open60,307Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31Earle Edward ChipmanofficerPurchase5,000 @ $9.81$49K+3.4% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open150,042Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31Sullivan Mary EdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $9.79$29K+1.1% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open277,904Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05FORAN MARGARET MdirectorSale10,695 @ $15.70$168K−8.4% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open116,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04FORAN MARGARET MdirectorSale10,000 @ $14.62$146K−7.3% of holding−9.9%not yet — horizon still open127,541Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01FORAN MARGARET MdirectorSale20,000 @ $14.62$292K−12.7% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open137,541Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-10SHANFELTER AUSTIN JdirectorSale90,000 @ $12.17$1.1M−21.5% of holding+0.3%−35.6%329,215Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-10Smith Quentin P. Jr.directorSale10,695 @ $12.25$131K−10.6% of holding+0.3%−35.6%90,659Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06Vasquez Alison GautofficerPurchase4,218 @ $11.85$50K+7.9% of holding−3.5%−35.6%57,607Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16SHANFELTER AUSTIN JdirectorSale30,000 @ $8.67$260K−6.7% of holding+0.0%−4.1%419,215Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Earle Edward ChipmanofficerPurchase5,000 @ $5.50$27K+5.8% of holding+7.2%+17.5%91,234Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Earle Edward ChipmanofficerPurchase5,000 @ $5.47$27K+6.2% of holding+7.2%+17.5%86,234Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23Vasquez Alison GautofficerWithheld for tax2,32555,282Form 4
2026-05-19Smith Quentin P. Jr.directorAward / grant7,23697,895Form 4
2026-05-19LEDFORD ROBERTdirectorAward / grant7,23623,112Form 4
2026-05-19SHANFELTER AUSTIN JdirectorAward / grant7,236336,451Form 4
2026-05-19Sullivan Mary EdirectorAward / grant7,236274,904Form 4
2026-05-19Caliel Michael JdirectorAward / grant7,236214,412Form 4
2026-05-19Smith Quentin P. Jr.directorAward / grant7,23697,895Form 4
2026-05-19SHANFELTER AUSTIN JdirectorAward / grant7,236336,451Form 4
2026-05-19Caliel Michael JdirectorAward / grant7,236214,412Form 4
2026-05-19Sullivan Mary EdirectorAward / grant7,236274,904Form 4
2026-05-19LEDFORD ROBERTdirectorAward / grant7,23623,112Form 4
2026-04-01Boone Travis JdirectorWithheld for tax15,377708,485Form 4
2026-04-01Earle Edward ChipmanofficerWithheld for tax2,884145,042Form 4
2026-03-20Boone Travis JdirectorWithheld for tax10,534723,862Form 4
2026-03-16Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant2,000734,396Form 4
2026-03-16Earle Edward ChipmanofficerAward / grant2,000147,926Form 4
2026-03-03Boone Travis JdirectorWithheld for tax85,803659,055Form 4
2026-03-03Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant73,341732,396Form 4
2026-03-03Earle Edward ChipmanofficerAward / grant20,169145,926Form 4
2026-03-03Vasquez Alison GautofficerAward / grant24,75253,389Form 4
2026-03-03Earle Edward ChipmanofficerAward / grant20,169145,926Form 4
2026-03-03Vasquez Alison GautofficerAward / grant24,75253,389Form 4
2026-03-03Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant241,636744,858Form 4
2026-03-03Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant73,341732,396Form 4
2026-03-03Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant241,636744,858Form 4
2025-11-28Earle Edward ChipmanofficerWithheld for tax5,001125,757Form 4
2025-11-19LEDFORD ROBERTdirectorAward / grant5,32815,876Form 4
2025-09-15Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant2,000503,222Form 4
2025-09-15Earle Edward ChipmanofficerAward / grant2,000130,758Form 4
2025-08-15Boone Travis JdirectorWithheld for tax55,306501,222Form 4
2025-06-23Vasquez Alison GautofficerAward / grant28,63728,637Form 4
2025-06-23Vasquez Alison GautofficerAward / grant28,63728,637Form 4
2025-05-15FORAN MARGARET MdirectorAward / grant11,481157,541Form 4
2025-05-15SHANFELTER AUSTIN JdirectorAward / grant11,481449,215Form 4
2025-05-15Caliel Michael JdirectorAward / grant11,481207,176Form 4
2025-05-15AMONETT THOMAS NdirectorAward / grant11,481287,945Form 4
2025-05-15Smith Quentin P. Jr.directorAward / grant11,481101,354Form 4
2025-05-15Sullivan Mary EdirectorAward / grant11,481267,668Form 4
2025-03-20Boone Travis JdirectorAward / grant117,229556,528Form 4
2025-03-20Earle Edward ChipmanofficerAward / grant35,524128,758Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.