ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $83.68 · now $83.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORLY has typically landed between $77.13 and $92.43 — a range of −7.8% to +10.5% from the issuance price $83.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($83.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ORLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $83.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$77.13worst · -7.8%$92.43best · +10.5%
  • now $83.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.98 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $81.52–$88.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $77.13–$92.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−33.4%−33.4%+0.5%
2020-02-20−33.3%−33.3%+0.0%
2020-02-24−28.5%−32.7%+1.5%
3 best
2020-03-23+41.2%+0.0%+43.2%
2020-03-20+35.9%−1.1%+41.7%
2008-11-20+35.6%+0.0%+40.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$72.4B
market cap
$3.06
EPS (TTM)
28.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$17.8B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-332.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-11.12
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $83.68$69.52$118.37
  • DCF (intrinsic)$95.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$72.89
  • Analyst target · range $98.00–$115.00$110.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$83.68

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Mar
79%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.8%
n=19
May
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Nov
89%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$108$832026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $88K — HENDRICKSON THOMAS2026-08-12: 2 insider sales, $463K — MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW, SASTRE MARIA2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $106K — HENDRICKSON THOMAS2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $7.8M — DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $230K — MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — BECKHAM BRAD W2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $350K — HOPPER PHILIP M2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $93K — SASTRE MARIA2025-11-26: 2 insider sales, $593K — HOPPER PHILIP M, MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $380K — FLETCHER JEREMY ADAM2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $289K — MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND2025-08-13: 2 insider sales, $9.1M — WILBANKS CARL DAVID, SASTRE MARIA2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $9.3M2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $93K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $9.8M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $551K↑ buys↓ salesdirector HENDRICKSON THOMAS — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SASTRE MARIA — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENDRICKSON THOMAS — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BECKHAM BRAD W — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer HOPPER PHILIP M — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SASTRE MARIA — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HOPPER PHILIP M — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer FLETCHER JEREMY ADAM — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WILBANKS CARL DAVID — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SASTRE MARIA — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28HENDRICKSON THOMASdirectorSale1,000 @ $87.83$88K−5.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,675Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-12MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerSale3,000 @ $93.00$279K−94.1% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open189Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12SASTRE MARIAdirectorSale2,000 @ $91.85$184K−11.8% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open14,970Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-29HENDRICKSON THOMASdirectorSale1,200 @ $88.32$106K−5.7% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open19,675Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerSale84,600 @ $92.60$7.8M−97.9% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open1,782Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDdirectorSale2,595 @ $88.67$230K−39.3% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open4,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08BECKHAM BRAD WofficerSale13,635 @ $95.00$1.3M−52.7% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open12,250Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07HOPPER PHILIP MofficerSale3,700 @ $94.60$350K−43.1% of holding−6.9%not yet — horizon still open4,888Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27SASTRE MARIAdirectorSale1,000 @ $92.68$93K−6.3% of holding+5.7%−18.5%14,935Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26HOPPER PHILIP MofficerSale3,500 @ $101.25$354K−42.2% of holding−11.1%−26.9%4,792Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerSale2,355 @ $101.31$239K−98.8% of holding−11.1%−26.9%28Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-18FLETCHER JEREMY ADAMofficerSale3,795 @ $100.00$380K−9.6% of holding−9.1%−19.2%35,876Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDdirectorSale3,125 @ $92.60$289K−27.8% of holding+4.7%−8.2%8,125Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13WILBANKS CARL DAVIDofficerSale88,485 @ $102.54$9.1M−89.6% of holding+2.8%−13.5%10,305Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13SASTRE MARIAdirectorSale595 @ $102.31$61K−3.6% of holding+2.8%−13.5%15,935Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06REAVES SHARI LYNNEofficerSale2,000 @ $103.81$208K−13.5% of holding−1.9%−18.8%12,826Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29MERZ MARK JOSEPHofficerSale29,505 @ $98.25$2.9M−87.5% of holding+3.4%−7.6%4,234Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29MERZ MARK JOSEPHofficerSale5,050 @ $99.07$500K−63.7% of holding+3.4%−7.6%2,876Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30ODEMS RAMON PARISESofficerSale2,000 @ $1360.45$2.7M−99.2% of holding−5.8%−5.1%16Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-29MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE AofficerSale19 @ $1351.91$26K−100.0% of holding−5.0%−3.2%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-19MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDdirectorSale200 @ $1379.00$276K−39.7% of holding−5.4%−5.4%304Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerSale1,557 @ $1354.01$2.1M−100.0% of holding+8.8%+3.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27REAVES SHARI LYNNEofficerSale86 @ $1344.31$116K−8.0% of holding+8.8%+3.7%984Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26CONN TAMARA F.officerSale1,524 @ $1326.78$2.0M−84.4% of holding+11.3%+7.9%281Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25HENSLEE GREGORY LdirectorSale5,927 @ $1322.44$7.8M−34.2% of holding+6.6%+5.7%11,397Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25TARRANT JASON LEEofficerSale1,992 @ $1339.10$2.7M−58.8% of holding+6.6%+5.7%1,398Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24HENSLEE GREGORY LdirectorSale3,073 @ $1315.15$4.0M−21.2% of holding+8.0%+8.7%11,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24OREILLY LAWRENCE PdirectorSale2,000 @ $1309.30$2.6M−1.5% of holding+8.0%+8.7%133,377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24OREILLY LAWRENCE PdirectorSale1,500 @ $1309.30$2.0M−5.4% of holding+8.0%+8.7%26,113Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24WEISS ANDREAdirectorSale248 @ $1311.23$325K−35.4% of holding+8.0%+8.7%452Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20OREILLY LAWRENCE PdirectorSale1,000 @ $1303.68$1.3M−0.7% of holding+9.3%+12.8%135,377Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19BECKHAM BRAD WofficerSale833 @ $1300.00$1.1M−52.3% of holding+11.4%+15.7%760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-13DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerSale5,000 @ $1334.09$6.7M−97.9% of holding+7.9%+7.9%108Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13ROGERS CHARLES FRANCISofficerSale3,459 @ $1335.31$4.6M−73.6% of holding+7.9%+7.9%1,240Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-12MERZ MARK JOSEPHofficerSale500 @ $1325.00$663K−64.5% of holding+6.9%+7.4%275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12SASTRE MARIAdirectorSale248 @ $1316.17$326K−20.3% of holding+6.9%+7.4%971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerOption exercise3,0003,189Form 4
2026-08-12MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerOption exercise3,00018,000Form 4
2026-05-20DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerOption exercise75,00086,382Form 4
2026-05-20DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerOption exercise9,60011,382Form 4
2026-05-20DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerOption exercise9,6000Form 4
2026-05-20DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerOption exercise75,0000Form 4
2026-05-15MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDdirectorAward / grant2,0356,595Form 4
2026-05-15JOHNSON GREGORY DdirectorAward / grant2,03579,248Form 4
2026-05-15PERLMAN DANAdirectorAward / grant2,03516,355Form 4
2026-05-15deBeers Kimberly A.directorAward / grant2,0354,000Form 4
2026-05-15WHITFIELD FRED ALANdirectorAward / grant2,03514,605Form 4
2026-05-15HENDRICKSON THOMASdirectorAward / grant2,03520,875Form 4
2026-05-15SASTRE MARIAdirectorAward / grant2,03516,970Form 4
2026-05-14HENSLEE GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant56,03956,039Form 4
2026-05-08BECKHAM BRAD WofficerOption exercise13,63525,885Form 4
2026-05-08BECKHAM BRAD WofficerOption exercise13,6350Form 4
2026-05-07HOPPER PHILIP MofficerOption exercise3,7008,588Form 4
2026-05-07HOPPER PHILIP MofficerOption exercise3,700465Form 4
2026-03-13MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE AofficerAward / grant6,7206,720Form 4
2026-03-13GRAY LARRY DEANofficerAward / grant3,4803,480Form 4
2026-01-30HENSLEE GREGORY LdirectorWithheld for tax1,461241,485Form 4
2026-01-30OREILLY DAVID EdirectorWithheld for tax1,280150,353Form 4
2026-01-29HENSLEE GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant4,305242,946Form 4
2026-01-29OREILLY DAVID EdirectorAward / grant3,733151,633Form 4
2026-01-29TARRANT JASON LEEofficerAward / grant14,30314,303Form 4
2026-01-29BECKHAM BRAD WofficerAward / grant74,76474,764Form 4
2026-01-29KIRBY BRENT GENTRYofficerAward / grant32,50732,507Form 4
2026-01-29KALE JUSTIN CHRISTOPHERofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29LOAFMAN JEFFERY THOMASofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29CONN TAMARA F.officerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREWofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29MERZ MARK JOSEPHofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE AofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29HOPPER PHILIP MofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29FLETCHER JEREMY ADAMofficerAward / grant29,25629,256Form 4
2026-01-29GRAY LARRY DEANofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29REAVES SHARI LYNNEofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29ROSS SCOTT RICHARDofficerAward / grant17,03417,034Form 4
2026-01-29WILBANKS CARL DAVIDofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4
2026-01-29DUMAS ROBERT ALLENofficerAward / grant3,3683,368Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2026-05-272026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2026-04-082026-03-19$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.