Issued 2026-08-13 at $107.40 · now $108.12 (2026-08-13, +0.7% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ORKA has typically landed between $89.19 and $142.28 — a range of −17.0% to +32.5% from the issuance price $107.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,971 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($107.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ORKA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $107.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $108.12 (+0.7%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $107.87 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $99.28–$116.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.19–$142.28
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2006-12-05 | −81.2% | −81.2% | +0.0% |
| 2006-11-29 | −80.7% | −80.7% | +0.2% |
| 2006-12-08 | −80.7% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-28 | +264.1% | +0.0% | +264.1% |
| 2019-04-08 | +179.7% | −4.6% | +179.7% |
| 2019-04-05 | +164.4% | −9.8% | +164.4% |
4,971 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Dose Ranging Study of ORKA-001 in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Dose Ranging Study of ORKA-002 in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Open-Label Extension Study of ORKA-001 in Participants With Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.