Issued 2026-09-25 at $84.46 · now $84.46 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ORKA has typically landed between $70.02 and $112.33 — a range of −17.1% to +33.0% from the issuance price $84.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($84.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ORKA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $84.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $84.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.84 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.9–$91.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $70.02–$112.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2006-12-05 | −81.2% | −81.2% | +0.0% |
| 2006-11-29 | −80.7% | −80.7% | +0.2% |
| 2006-12-08 | −80.7% | −81.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-28 | +264.1% | +0.0% | +264.1% |
| 2019-04-08 | +179.7% | −4.6% | +179.7% |
| 2019-04-05 | +164.4% | −9.8% | +164.4% |
5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Dose Ranging Study of ORKA-001 in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Dose Ranging Study of ORKA-002 in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Open-Label Extension Study of ORKA-001 in Participants With Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
30%
+1.6%
n=20
Feb
40%
−6.4%
n=20
Mar
40%
−2.4%
n=20
Apr
65%
+11.7%
n=20
May
45%
+6.5%
n=20
Jun
35%
−4.8%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.0%
n=20
Aug
20%
−7.7%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.4%
n=20
Oct
45%
−3.9%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Dec
50%
−3.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 3,832 @ $93.32 | $358K | −10.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,263 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $92.37 | $268K | −7.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 2,667 @ $95.31 | $254K | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 601 @ $94.44 | $57K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,662 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 533 @ $95.75 | $51K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,219 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 3,150 @ $92.03 | $290K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,184 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Sale | 2,452 @ $95.71 | $235K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 923,128 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 2,384 @ $91.10 | $217K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 1,366 @ $92.99 | $127K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 1,039 @ $95.71 | $99K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 947 @ $95.71 | $91K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,771 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 906 @ $95.71 | $87K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 235,478 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 560 @ $95.71 | $54K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,752 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 100 @ $94.22 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 4,051 @ $92.41 | $374K | −18.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $91.11 | $273K | −12.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 2,208 @ $93.26 | $206K | −12.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,512 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 200 @ $94.02 | $19K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,312 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Sale | 63,596 @ $91.90 | $5.8M | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 930,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Sale | 6,604 @ $90.79 | $600K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 993,976 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Sale | 4,800 @ $92.44 | $444K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 925,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $92.01 | $368K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 236,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $91.05 | $91K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 240,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 3,320 @ $112.01 | $372K | −8.6% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 2,480 @ $112.56 | $279K | −7.0% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 900 @ $109.65 | $99K | −2.3% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 300 @ $110.52 | $33K | −0.8% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 14,696 @ $107.97 | $1.6M | −21.3% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 10,434 @ $107.14 | $1.1M | −13.1% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 10,200 @ $109.11 | $1.1M | −18.8% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,074 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 9,193 @ $110.00 | $1.0M | −20.9% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,881 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 3,847 @ $111.14 | $428K | −11.0% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 3,630 @ $106.05 | $385K | −4.4% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,404 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 2,358 @ $108.46 | $256K | −13.3% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 2,142 @ $107.71 | $231K | −10.8% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 2,132 @ $105.57 | $225K | −9.2% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $104.67 | $220K | −8.3% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 1,268 @ $106.63 | $135K | −6.0% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 3,803 @ $86.68 | $330K | −10.3% of holding | +21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,018 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 2,497 @ $85.86 | $214K | −6.4% of holding | +21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,821 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 400 @ $84.36 | $34K | −1.0% of holding | +21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,318 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 300 @ $87.25 | $26K | −0.9% of holding | +21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 5,656 @ $84.90 | $480K | −26.6% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,612 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 3,743 @ $84.26 | $315K | −15.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,268 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 300 @ $85.63 | $26K | −1.9% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 300 @ $83.07 | $25K | −1.2% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,011 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Sale | 3,553,410 @ $84.43 | $300.0M | −75.8% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,131,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 2,263 @ $94.75 | $214K | −0.9% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 2,237 @ $93.85 | $210K | −0.9% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 239,147 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 500 @ $95.47 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 888 @ $80.01 | $71K | −5.3% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,011 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 699 @ $82.14 | $57K | −4.4% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 5,064 @ $69.42 | $352K | −13.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Sale | 1,729 @ $69.69 | $120K | −0.2% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 925,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 1,636 @ $68.38 | $112K | −4.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,029 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 947 @ $69.69 | $66K | −2.8% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Sale | 733 @ $69.69 | $51K | −2.3% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Sale | 600 @ $69.69 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Sale | 395 @ $69.69 | $28K | −2.3% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,899 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Sale | 300 @ $70.62 | $21K | −0.9% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,665 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 39,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 79,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 39,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 36,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 193,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 164,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 23,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,459 | 24,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 84,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,459 | 58,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 1,000,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 241,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Klein Lawrence Otto | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 1,553,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 74,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Edwards Larry Todd | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Edwards Larry Todd | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 39,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 36,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 197,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 168,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 42,000 | 83,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 41,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 42,000 | 120,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Quinlan Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 89,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,542 | 23,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 25,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 59,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,542 | 92,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 39,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 36,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 171,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goncalves Joana | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 200,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,541 | 23,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 25,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 8,541 | 101,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Agarwal Arjun | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 61,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 241,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Conversion | 42,641 | 94,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandler Laura Lee | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 79,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Conversion | 3,553,410 | 4,685,364 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.