Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.54 · now $12.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORIC has typically landed between $8.37 and $18.40 — a range of −33.2% to +46.7% from the issuance price $12.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,586 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ORIC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.43 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.21–$14.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.37–$18.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,586 windows spanning 2020-04-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-05 | −54.3% | −54.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-04 | −52.2% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-06 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-12-20 | +129.6% | +0.0% | +129.6% |
| 2022-12-19 | +119.7% | −3.3% | +119.7% |
| 2022-12-21 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +125.0% |
1,586 overlapping windows · 2020-04-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+4.0%
n=6
Feb
50%
−1.4%
n=6
Mar
33%
−9.2%
n=6
Apr
17%
−17.4%
n=6
May
57%
+4.7%
n=7
Jun
71%
+16.1%
n=7
Jul
43%
+0.3%
n=7
Aug
71%
+10.2%
n=7
Sep
14%
−4.7%
n=7
Oct
33%
−8.1%
n=6
Nov
67%
+16.7%
n=6
Dec
50%
+6.2%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 77,000 @ $13.69 | $1.1M | −52.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $12.02 | $84K | −15.5% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 6,100 @ $12.02 | $73K | −2.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 300 @ $12.00 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 52,000 @ $13.51 | $703K | −43.3% of holding | −8.6% | −9.0% | 68,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $12.00 | $42K | −7.7% of holding | −9.9% | −19.4% | 41,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $12.00 | $38K | −1.5% of holding | −9.9% | −19.4% | 213,072 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 33,374 @ $9.06 | $302K | −5.4% of holding | +30.7% | −17.8% | 581,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Multani Pratik S | director | Sale | 10,720 @ $9.06 | $97K | −13.6% of holding | +30.7% | −17.8% | 68,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 10,720 @ $9.06 | $97K | −13.6% of holding | +30.7% | −17.8% | 68,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 37,461 @ $12.32 | $462K | −6.6% of holding | −15.2% | −38.4% | 531,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $14.52 | $160K | −18.5% of holding | −15.2% | −38.4% | 48,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 53,001 @ $12.05 | $639K | −8.5% of holding | +12.2% | −22.8% | 568,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 34,538 @ $12.01 | $415K | −5.3% of holding | +4.6% | −36.6% | 621,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 125,000 @ $10.80 | $1.3M | −16.0% of holding | +15.8% | +4.1% | 656,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.05 | $201K | −29.3% of holding | −4.0% | −32.2% | 48,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 32,466 @ $10.50 | $341K | −32.2% of holding | +7.3% | −33.4% | 68,317 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | You Angie | director | Purchase | 1,403 @ $9.43 | $13K | +5.3% of holding | +12.3% | −33.7% | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 584 @ $10.00 | $6K | −0.6% of holding | +12.3% | −33.7% | 101,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 450 @ $10.01 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | +12.3% | −33.7% | 100,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | You Angie | director | Purchase | 26,597 @ $9.39 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.9% | −27.3% | 26,597 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 300 @ $10.00 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +10.2% | −14.6% | 101,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $10.01 | $17K | −1.6% of holding | +11.3% | −8.5% | 102,117 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 1,276 @ $10.00 | $13K | −1.2% of holding | +11.3% | −8.5% | 103,817 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-10 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 324 @ $10.00 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +10.1% | −9.9% | 105,093 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 300 @ $10.00 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +11.5% | −8.0% | 103,864 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $10.01 | $26K | −2.4% of holding | +12.5% | +2.9% | 104,164 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Chacko Jacob | director | Sale | 24,660 @ $8.28 | $204K | −3.1% of holding | +17.4% | +14.1% | 778,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Sale | 8,851 @ $8.28 | $73K | −7.7% of holding | +17.4% | +14.1% | 106,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Multani Pratik S | director | Sale | 8,850 @ $8.28 | $73K | −15.9% of holding | +17.4% | +14.1% | 46,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 52,000 | 121,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 146,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 52,000 | 92,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Option exercise | 3,500 | 45,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Option exercise | 3,500 | 30,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 52,000 | 120,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 52,000 | 144,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dier Mardi | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | You Angie | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Multani Pratik S | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 35,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chacko Jacob | director | Award / grant | 675,000 | 675,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chacko Jacob | director | Award / grant | 112,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Multani Pratik S | director | Award / grant | 214,000 | 214,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Award / grant | 206,500 | 206,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Award / grant | 34,500 | 34,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Multani Pratik S | director | Option exercise | 11,333 | 22,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chacko Jacob | director | Option exercise | 83,666 | 615,085 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chacko Jacob | director | Option exercise | 22,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chacko Jacob | director | Option exercise | 28,333 | 28,334 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chacko Jacob | director | Option exercise | 33,333 | 66,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 29,333 | 78,868 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 11,333 | 22,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Multani Pratik S | director | Option exercise | 29,333 | 78,869 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Multani Pratik S | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Multani Pratik S | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 84,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 15,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Option exercise | 5,534 | 74,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Option exercise | 5,534 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-06 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 59,317 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-06 | Piscitelli Dominic | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 196,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Option exercise | 31,353 | 43,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Option exercise | 1,447 | 45,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Option exercise | 13,228 | 33,700 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.