ORIOld Republic International CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.90 · now $40.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORI has typically landed between $37.43 and $44.85 — a range of −8.5% to +9.6% from the issuance price $40.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ORI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.43worst · -8.5%$44.85best · +9.6%
  • now $40.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.66 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.23–$43.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.43–$44.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−46.4%−46.4%+0.0%
2008-09-19−45.0%−50.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−43.8%−43.8%+0.0%
3 best
2008-08-20+64.3%−0.6%+64.3%
2009-03-05+51.3%+0.0%+52.9%
2008-08-19+50.6%+0.0%+50.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+0.9%
n=20
May
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
35%
−2.5%
n=20
Jul
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Aug
60%
+2.3%
n=20
Sep
55%
+1.4%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$45$352026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $184K — MONROE CAROLYN2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $76K — MONROE CAROLYN2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $616K — LANGE JEFFREY2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $577K — OBERST STEPHEN J2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $517K — MONROE CAROLYN2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Risch Therace2026-03-02: 2 insider purchases, $49K — Smith John Eric …2026-02-02: 2 insider sales, $217K — MONROE CAROLYN …2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $298K — MONROE CAROLYN2025-11-03: 2 insider purchases, $39K — Risch Therace …2025-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Risch Therace2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $188K — OBERST STEPHEN J2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $188K2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $60K2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $39K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $298K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $217K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $49K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $12K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $517K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $76K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $184K↑ buys↓ salesofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer LANGE JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer OBERST STEPHEN J — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Risch Therace — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Smith John Eric — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith John Eric — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MONROE CAROLYN — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Risch Therace — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Risch Therace — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Risch Therace — Purchase on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer OBERST STEPHEN J — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale4,386 @ $42.01$184K−13.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,875Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale1,788 @ $42.26$76K−5.3% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open32,261Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29LANGE JEFFREYofficerSale14,075 @ $43.76$616K−53.5% of holding−11.0%not yet — horizon still open12,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerSale13,125 @ $43.96$577K−13.8% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open82,205Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale13,330 @ $38.76$517K−29.2% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open32,261Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Risch TheracedirectorPurchase300 @ $39.90$12K+2.4% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open12,843Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02Smith John EricdirectorPurchase663 @ $43.09$29K+21.1% of holding−1.7%−13.9%3,804Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Smith John EricdirectorPurchase472 @ $43.11$20K+12.4% of holding−1.7%−13.9%4,276Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale3,926 @ $39.28$154K−11.8% of holding+9.7%+1.0%29,475Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale1,600 @ $39.29$63K−5.4% of holding+9.7%+1.0%27,875Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-14MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale6,680 @ $44.54$298K−18.7% of holding+1.7%−14.1%29,075Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-03Risch TheracedirectorPurchase523 @ $39.36$21K+5.2% of holding+12.1%−1.1%10,625Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Risch TheracedirectorPurchase477 @ $38.89$19K+5.0% of holding+12.1%−1.1%10,102Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Risch TheracedirectorPurchase1,500 @ $39.90$60K+18.5% of holding+3.0%+6.2%9,625Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21OBERST STEPHEN JofficerSale4,797 @ $39.29$188K−8.1% of holding−0.5%+5.3%54,661Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-31MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale6,849 @ $36.52$250K−16.1% of holding+8.5%+6.0%35,755Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale10,601 @ $37.38$396K−22.9% of holding−3.7%−15.5%35,755Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01LANGE JEFFREYofficerSale8,117 @ $37.41$304K−23.5% of holding−3.7%−15.5%26,355Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11DARE THOMASofficerSale14,447 @ $36.48$527K−19.5% of holding+2.0%−7.5%59,566Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11DARE THOMASofficerSale13,010 @ $36.52$475K−21.8% of holding+2.0%−7.5%46,556Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Smiddy Craig RdirectorSale5,296 @ $38.60$204K−3.7% of holding+6.8%−5.3%138,222Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Sodaro Frank JosephofficerSale3,094 @ $38.84$120K−6.6% of holding+6.8%−5.3%43,894Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Sodaro Frank JosephofficerSale10 @ $38.84$388−0.0% of holding+6.8%−5.3%43,884Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale4,751 @ $36.35$173K−12.4% of holding+9.4%−0.8%33,705Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale4,288 @ $36.34$156K−11.3% of holding+9.4%−0.8%33,556Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04MONROE CAROLYNofficerSale149 @ $36.36$5K−0.4% of holding+9.4%−0.8%33,556Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-31LANGE JEFFREYofficerSale1,098 @ $36.56$40K−3.1% of holding+6.4%−4.6%34,679Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16KOVALESKI CHARLES JdirectorPurchase109 @ $37.46$4K+0.7% of holding+2.9%+8.1%15,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

230 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11MONROE CAROLYNofficerWithheld for tax13,29234,049Form 4
2026-08-11MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise15,08047,341Form 4
2026-08-11MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise15,08030,206Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerWithheld for tax150,06895,330Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise65,000245,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise55,000180,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise28,000110,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise24,00082,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise21,00058,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise15,000125,398Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise24,0000Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise28,0000Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise15,0000Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise55,0000Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise65,0000Form 4
2026-07-28OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise21,0000Form 4
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerWithheld for tax36,04445,591Form 4
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise30,06062,321Form 4
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise19,31481,635Form 4
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise30,0600Form 4
2026-05-12MONROE CAROLYNofficerOption exercise19,31419,372Form 4
2026-03-16Smiddy Craig RdirectorWithheld for tax11,643133,189Form 4
2026-03-16OBERST STEPHEN JofficerWithheld for tax3,42637,398Form 4
2026-03-16DARE THOMASofficerWithheld for tax2,67240,747Form 4
2026-03-16Sodaro Frank JosephofficerWithheld for tax2,44746,249Form 4
2026-03-16LANGE JEFFREYofficerWithheld for tax2,19926,319Form 4
2026-03-16GRAY WILLIAM TofficerWithheld for tax2,03457,801Form 4
2026-03-11Smiddy Craig RdirectorWithheld for tax2,674144,832Form 4
2026-03-11OBERST STEPHEN JofficerWithheld for tax1,07840,824Form 4
2026-03-11DARE THOMASofficerWithheld for tax88143,419Form 4
2026-03-11Sodaro Frank JosephofficerWithheld for tax80748,696Form 4
2026-03-11GRAY WILLIAM TofficerWithheld for tax79259,835Form 4
2026-03-11LANGE JEFFREYofficerWithheld for tax72528,518Form 4
2026-03-11MONROE CAROLYNofficerWithheld for tax70532,261Form 4
2026-03-11Sodaro Frank JosephofficerOption exercise2,7525,511Form 4
2026-03-11OBERST STEPHEN JofficerOption exercise3,6797,368Form 4
2026-03-11DARE THOMASofficerOption exercise2,7525,511Form 4
2026-03-11GRAY WILLIAM TofficerOption exercise3,2506,509Form 4
2026-03-11LANGE JEFFREYofficerOption exercise2,7525,511Form 4
2026-03-11Smiddy Craig RdirectorOption exercise9,12318,274Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.