ORCLOracle CorporationTechnology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $143.16 · now $143.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORCL has typically landed between $119.64 and $174.70 — a range of −16.4% to +22.0% from the issuance price $143.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($143.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ORCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $143.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$119.64worst · -16.4%$174.7best · +22.0%
  • now $143.16 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $144.54 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $132.81$156.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $119.64$174.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-06-02−42.6%−42.6%+0.0%
2026-06-01−42.6%−42.6%+0.0%
2026-06-04−40.1%−40.7%+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-30+53.8%+0.0%+53.8%
2026-05-01+42.3%+0.0%+44.4%
2026-04-09+42.1%+0.0%+42.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$331.2B
market cap
$5.83
EPS (TTM)
19.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-08
next earnings
Revenue$67.4B
'21'26
Net income$17.1B
'21'26
Free cash flow−$23.7B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr25.4%
'21'26
ROE · by yr40.2%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr3.67
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $143.16$-50.95$352.85
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-23.10
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$199.42
  • Analyst target · range $145.00$325.00$243.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$143.16

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Apr
84%
+2.2%
n=19
May
68%
+3.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
+1.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
61%
+0.3%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$325$1152026-06-24: 11 insider sales, $63.7M — HENLEY JEFFREY …2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Levey Stuart2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Magouyrk Clayton M.2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $6.8M — KEHRING DOUGLAS A2025-12-24: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Hura Mark2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $437K — SELIGMAN NAOMI O2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Magouyrk Clayton M.2025-10-28: 4 insider sales, $14.0M — BERG JEFFREY …2025-10-23: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Smith Maria2025-10-21: 2 insider sales, $12.5M — Magouyrk Clayton M., Smith Maria2025-10-10: 1 insider sale, $5.9M — Levey Stuart2025-09-26: 1 insider sale, $642K — SELIGMAN NAOMI O2025-09-23: 1 insider sale, $10.9M — Sicilia Michael D.2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $5.1M — Sicilia Michael D.2025-09-12: 2 insider sales, $9.8M — Magouyrk Clayton M., Parrett William G2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $4.0M2025-09: 5 open-market sales, $26.5M2025-10: 8 open-market sales, $33.8M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $5.3M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $6.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $2.6M2026-06: 11 open-market sales, $63.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENLEY JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Levey Stuart — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Magouyrk Clayton M. — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KEHRING DOUGLAS A — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hura Mark — Sale on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector SELIGMAN NAOMI O — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed same dayofficer Magouyrk Clayton M. — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BERG JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BERG JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BERG JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BERG JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Smith Maria — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed same dayofficer Magouyrk Clayton M. — Sale on 2025-10-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Smith Maria — Sale on 2025-10-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Levey Stuart — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SELIGMAN NAOMI O — Sale on 2025-09-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sicilia Michael D. — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed same dayofficer Sicilia Michael D. — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Magouyrk Clayton M. — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Parrett William G — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale78,559 @ $157.02$12.3M−24.2% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open246,472Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale74,969 @ $156.06$11.7M−18.7% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open325,031Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale62,582 @ $160.08$10.0M−34.0% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open121,216Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale48,353 @ $160.86$7.8M−39.9% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open72,863Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale45,872 @ $157.89$7.2M−18.6% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open200,600Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale26,603 @ $164.00$4.4M−65.0% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open14,329Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale16,809 @ $162.18$2.7M−23.1% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open56,054Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale16,802 @ $159.07$2.7M−8.4% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open183,798Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale15,122 @ $163.00$2.5M−27.0% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open40,932Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale13,529 @ $164.91$2.2M−94.4% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorSale800 @ $165.57$132K−100.0% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-16Levey StuartofficerSale15,000 @ $176.19$2.6M−81.4% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open3,429Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-09Magouyrk Clayton M.officerSale10,000 @ $155.23$1.6M−6.9% of holding+6.7%−18.1%134,030Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15KEHRING DOUGLAS AofficerSale35,000 @ $194.89$6.8M−51.0% of holding−17.5%−43.4%33,638Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-24Hura MarkofficerSale15,000 @ $196.89$3.0M−6.0% of holding−11.9%−32.6%234,077Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-23SELIGMAN NAOMI OdirectorSale2,223 @ $196.61$437K−8.0% of holding−7.0%−30.0%25,596Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Magouyrk Clayton M.officerSale10,000 @ $192.52$1.9M−6.5% of holding−8.2%−25.7%144,030Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-28BERG JEFFREYdirectorSale22,724 @ $283.63$6.4M−12.7% of holding−25.9%−47.4%156,225Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28BERG JEFFREYdirectorSale13,373 @ $282.56$3.8M−7.0% of holding−25.9%−47.4%178,949Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28BERG JEFFREYdirectorSale9,042 @ $281.58$2.5M−4.5% of holding−25.9%−47.4%192,322Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28BERG JEFFREYdirectorSale4,226 @ $284.31$1.2M−2.7% of holding−25.9%−47.4%151,999Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-23Smith MariaofficerSale5,000 @ $280.62$1.4M−9.6% of holding−27.1%−44.9%47,083Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-21Magouyrk Clayton M.officerSale40,000 @ $276.64$11.1M−20.6% of holding−16.7%−41.7%154,030Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-21Smith MariaofficerSale5,000 @ $280.00$1.4M−8.8% of holding−16.7%−41.7%52,083Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-10Levey StuartofficerSale19,758 @ $300.00$5.9M−51.7% of holding−22.1%−51.0%18,429Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-26SELIGMAN NAOMI OdirectorSale2,222 @ $288.91$642K−7.1% of holding−4.1%−46.9%29,225Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-23Sicilia Michael D.officerSale33,845 @ $321.16$10.9M−20.3% of holding−13.7%−52.9%132,656Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16Sicilia Michael D.officerSale16,323 @ $313.60$5.1M−12.9% of holding−1.9%−50.7%110,094Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Magouyrk Clayton M.officerSale21,241 @ $297.11$6.3M−21.4% of holding+4.5%−48.7%78,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-12Parrett William GdirectorSale11,500 @ $306.00$3.5M−39.3% of holding+4.5%−48.7%17,764Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-05Sicilia Michael D.officerSale15,880 @ $254.48$4.0M−13.8% of holding−16.1%−52.3%99,212Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-16SELIGMAN NAOMI OdirectorSale3,303 @ $233.32$771K−9.5% of holding−1.8%−30.6%31,447Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorPurchase480 @ $233.87$112K+2.2% of holding+9.1%−28.2%22,110Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-03Smith MariaofficerSale10,000 @ $232.99$2.3M−19.7% of holding+5.7%−27.1%40,807Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-27CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale491,538 @ $210.35$103.4M−20.7% of holding+15.9%−18.4%1,887,562Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale329,528 @ $213.64$70.4M−20.7% of holding+15.9%−18.4%1,262,629Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale181,141 @ $211.32$38.3M−9.6% of holding+15.9%−18.4%1,706,421Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale144,037 @ $214.25$30.9M−11.4% of holding+15.9%−18.4%1,118,592Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale114,264 @ $212.75$24.3M−6.7% of holding+15.9%−18.4%1,592,157Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-26CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale899,234 @ $212.90$191.4M−36.0% of holding+12.5%−20.3%1,597,667Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale479,075 @ $213.64$102.3M−30.0% of holding+12.5%−20.3%1,118,592Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale244,280 @ $211.96$51.8M−8.9% of holding+12.5%−20.3%2,496,901Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale243,112 @ $210.93$51.3M−8.1% of holding+12.5%−20.3%2,741,181Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale706,221 @ $210.64$148.8M−23.6% of holding+11.6%−20.9%2,286,162Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale308,116 @ $213.77$65.9M−18.0% of holding+11.6%−20.9%1,404,792Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale308,140 @ $212.69$65.5M−15.2% of holding+11.6%−20.9%1,712,908Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale263,463 @ $214.67$56.6M−18.8% of holding+11.6%−20.9%1,141,329Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale265,114 @ $211.84$56.2M−11.6% of holding+11.6%−20.9%2,021,048Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale22,637 @ $215.44$4.9M−2.0% of holding+11.6%−20.9%1,118,692Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale100 @ $216.81$22K−0.0% of holding+11.6%−20.9%1,118,592Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale482,330 @ $205.26$99.0M−22.7% of holding+11.4%−21.0%1,640,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale315,338 @ $207.02$65.3M−22.0% of holding+11.4%−21.0%1,118,592Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale206,273 @ $206.12$42.5M−12.6% of holding+11.4%−21.0%1,433,930Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale190,977 @ $204.19$39.0M−8.3% of holding+11.4%−21.0%2,122,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale168,215 @ $204.19$34.3M−6.8% of holding+11.4%−21.0%2,313,510Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale47,414 @ $203.36$9.6M−1.9% of holding+11.4%−21.0%2,481,725Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale526,319 @ $209.02$110.0M−29.3% of holding+10.5%−26.1%1,272,439Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale483,980 @ $208.12$100.7M−21.2% of holding+10.5%−26.1%1,798,758Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale461,378 @ $207.24$95.6M−16.8% of holding+10.5%−26.1%2,282,738Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20CATZ SAFRAdirectorSale407,254 @ $204.95$83.5M−12.0% of holding+10.5%−26.1%2,995,709Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Levey StuartofficerAward / grant523160,365Form 4
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise400,000400,000Form 4
2026-06-24HENLEY JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise400,0000Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorWithheld for tax8013,487Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorWithheld for tax5824,166Form 4
2026-05-31Mihaljevic TomislavdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31MOORMAN CHARLES WdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31BERG JEFFREYdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31BOSKIN MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31CHIZEN BRUCE RdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN HdirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorAward / grant1,5501,550Form 4
2026-05-31BERG JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise2,114154,113Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorOption exercise2,11413,567Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31BERG JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31BOSKIN MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise2,11497,558Form 4
2026-05-31BOSKIN MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31CHIZEN BRUCE RdirectorOption exercise2,11471,056Form 4
2026-05-31CHIZEN BRUCE RdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorOption exercise2,11424,224Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31MOORMAN CHARLES WdirectorOption exercise2,11440,689Form 4
2026-05-31MOORMAN CHARLES WdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorOption exercise2,11413,567Form 4
2026-05-31Ablo AwodirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31BERG JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise2,114154,113Form 4
2026-05-31BERG JEFFREYdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31BOSKIN MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise2,11497,558Form 4
2026-05-31BOSKIN MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31CHIZEN BRUCE RdirectorOption exercise2,11471,056Form 4
2026-05-31CHIZEN BRUCE RdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorOption exercise2,11424,224Form 4
2026-05-31Fairhead Rona AlisondirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-31MOORMAN CHARLES WdirectorOption exercise2,11440,689Form 4
2026-05-31MOORMAN CHARLES WdirectorOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-05-05Maxson Hilary BofficerAward / grant224,441224,441Form 4
2026-05-05Maxson Hilary BofficerAward / grant56,11156,111Form 4
2026-04-24Levey StuartofficerAward / grant346159,841Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Sheldon WhitehouseSenatesale2026-06-022026-05-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.