Issued 2026-09-16 at $143.16 · now $143.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORCL has typically landed between $119.64 and $174.70 — a range of −16.4% to +22.0% from the issuance price $143.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($143.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ORCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $143.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $143.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $144.54 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $132.81–$156.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $119.64–$174.7
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-02 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | −40.1% | −40.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +53.8% | +0.0% | +53.8% |
| 2026-05-01 | +42.3% | +0.0% | +44.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | +42.1% | +0.0% | +42.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-23.10
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$199.42
- Analyst target · range $145.00–$325.00$243.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$143.16
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 78,559 @ $157.02 | $12.3M | −24.2% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 74,969 @ $156.06 | $11.7M | −18.7% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 62,582 @ $160.08 | $10.0M | −34.0% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 48,353 @ $160.86 | $7.8M | −39.9% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 45,872 @ $157.89 | $7.2M | −18.6% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 26,603 @ $164.00 | $4.4M | −65.0% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 16,809 @ $162.18 | $2.7M | −23.1% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 16,802 @ $159.07 | $2.7M | −8.4% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 15,122 @ $163.00 | $2.5M | −27.0% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 13,529 @ $164.91 | $2.2M | −94.4% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Sale | 800 @ $165.57 | $132K | −100.0% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Levey Stuart | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $176.19 | $2.6M | −81.4% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Magouyrk Clayton M. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $155.23 | $1.6M | −6.9% of holding | +6.7% | −18.1% | 134,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | KEHRING DOUGLAS A | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $194.89 | $6.8M | −51.0% of holding | −17.5% | −43.4% | 33,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Hura Mark | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $196.89 | $3.0M | −6.0% of holding | −11.9% | −32.6% | 234,077 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | SELIGMAN NAOMI O | director | Sale | 2,223 @ $196.61 | $437K | −8.0% of holding | −7.0% | −30.0% | 25,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-19 | Magouyrk Clayton M. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $192.52 | $1.9M | −6.5% of holding | −8.2% | −25.7% | 144,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Sale | 22,724 @ $283.63 | $6.4M | −12.7% of holding | −25.9% | −47.4% | 156,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Sale | 13,373 @ $282.56 | $3.8M | −7.0% of holding | −25.9% | −47.4% | 178,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Sale | 9,042 @ $281.58 | $2.5M | −4.5% of holding | −25.9% | −47.4% | 192,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Sale | 4,226 @ $284.31 | $1.2M | −2.7% of holding | −25.9% | −47.4% | 151,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Smith Maria | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $280.62 | $1.4M | −9.6% of holding | −27.1% | −44.9% | 47,083 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | Magouyrk Clayton M. | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $276.64 | $11.1M | −20.6% of holding | −16.7% | −41.7% | 154,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Smith Maria | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $280.00 | $1.4M | −8.8% of holding | −16.7% | −41.7% | 52,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Levey Stuart | officer | Sale | 19,758 @ $300.00 | $5.9M | −51.7% of holding | −22.1% | −51.0% | 18,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | SELIGMAN NAOMI O | director | Sale | 2,222 @ $288.91 | $642K | −7.1% of holding | −4.1% | −46.9% | 29,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Sicilia Michael D. | officer | Sale | 33,845 @ $321.16 | $10.9M | −20.3% of holding | −13.7% | −52.9% | 132,656 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Sicilia Michael D. | officer | Sale | 16,323 @ $313.60 | $5.1M | −12.9% of holding | −1.9% | −50.7% | 110,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Magouyrk Clayton M. | officer | Sale | 21,241 @ $297.11 | $6.3M | −21.4% of holding | +4.5% | −48.7% | 78,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Parrett William G | director | Sale | 11,500 @ $306.00 | $3.5M | −39.3% of holding | +4.5% | −48.7% | 17,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Sicilia Michael D. | officer | Sale | 15,880 @ $254.48 | $4.0M | −13.8% of holding | −16.1% | −52.3% | 99,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | SELIGMAN NAOMI O | director | Sale | 3,303 @ $233.32 | $771K | −9.5% of holding | −1.8% | −30.6% | 31,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Purchase | 480 @ $233.87 | $112K | +2.2% of holding | +9.1% | −28.2% | 22,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Smith Maria | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $232.99 | $2.3M | −19.7% of holding | +5.7% | −27.1% | 40,807 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 491,538 @ $210.35 | $103.4M | −20.7% of holding | +15.9% | −18.4% | 1,887,562 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 329,528 @ $213.64 | $70.4M | −20.7% of holding | +15.9% | −18.4% | 1,262,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 181,141 @ $211.32 | $38.3M | −9.6% of holding | +15.9% | −18.4% | 1,706,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 144,037 @ $214.25 | $30.9M | −11.4% of holding | +15.9% | −18.4% | 1,118,592 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 114,264 @ $212.75 | $24.3M | −6.7% of holding | +15.9% | −18.4% | 1,592,157 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 899,234 @ $212.90 | $191.4M | −36.0% of holding | +12.5% | −20.3% | 1,597,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-26 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 479,075 @ $213.64 | $102.3M | −30.0% of holding | +12.5% | −20.3% | 1,118,592 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-26 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 244,280 @ $211.96 | $51.8M | −8.9% of holding | +12.5% | −20.3% | 2,496,901 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-26 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 243,112 @ $210.93 | $51.3M | −8.1% of holding | +12.5% | −20.3% | 2,741,181 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 706,221 @ $210.64 | $148.8M | −23.6% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 2,286,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 308,116 @ $213.77 | $65.9M | −18.0% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 1,404,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 308,140 @ $212.69 | $65.5M | −15.2% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 1,712,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 263,463 @ $214.67 | $56.6M | −18.8% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 1,141,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 265,114 @ $211.84 | $56.2M | −11.6% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 2,021,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 22,637 @ $215.44 | $4.9M | −2.0% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 1,118,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 100 @ $216.81 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | +11.6% | −20.9% | 1,118,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 482,330 @ $205.26 | $99.0M | −22.7% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 1,640,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 315,338 @ $207.02 | $65.3M | −22.0% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 1,118,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 206,273 @ $206.12 | $42.5M | −12.6% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 1,433,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 190,977 @ $204.19 | $39.0M | −8.3% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 2,122,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 168,215 @ $204.19 | $34.3M | −6.8% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 2,313,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 47,414 @ $203.36 | $9.6M | −1.9% of holding | +11.4% | −21.0% | 2,481,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 526,319 @ $209.02 | $110.0M | −29.3% of holding | +10.5% | −26.1% | 1,272,439 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 483,980 @ $208.12 | $100.7M | −21.2% of holding | +10.5% | −26.1% | 1,798,758 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 461,378 @ $207.24 | $95.6M | −16.8% of holding | +10.5% | −26.1% | 2,282,738 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | CATZ SAFRA | director | Sale | 407,254 @ $204.95 | $83.5M | −12.0% of holding | +10.5% | −26.1% | 2,995,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Levey Stuart | officer | Award / grant | 523 | 160,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | HENLEY JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Withheld for tax | 80 | 13,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Withheld for tax | 58 | 24,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mihaljevic Tomislav | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | MOORMAN CHARLES W | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BOSKIN MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | CHIZEN BRUCE R | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Award / grant | 1,550 | 1,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 154,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 13,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BOSKIN MICHAEL J | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 97,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BOSKIN MICHAEL J | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | CHIZEN BRUCE R | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 71,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | CHIZEN BRUCE R | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 24,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | MOORMAN CHARLES W | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 40,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | MOORMAN CHARLES W | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 13,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Ablo Awo | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 154,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BERG JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BOSKIN MICHAEL J | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 97,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | BOSKIN MICHAEL J | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | CHIZEN BRUCE R | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 71,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | CHIZEN BRUCE R | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 24,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fairhead Rona Alison | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | MOORMAN CHARLES W | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 40,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | MOORMAN CHARLES W | director | Option exercise | 2,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Maxson Hilary B | officer | Award / grant | 224,441 | 224,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Maxson Hilary B | officer | Award / grant | 56,111 | 56,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Levey Stuart | officer | Award / grant | 346 | 159,841 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-07 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.