ORC · TickerCove

ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.05 · now $6.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORC has typically landed between $5.08 and $6.82 — a range of −16.0% to +12.7% from the issuance price $6.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,396 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-02-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.05 · 18% of range

$5.74 low$7.5 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 8.8%

−16.0%worst (p90)+12.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ORC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.05 (+0.0%)
typical $6.07 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $5.8–$6.33
90% range $5.08–$6.82

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,396 windows spanning 2013-02-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−70.7%	−70.7%	+3.0%
2020-02-19	−63.6%	−70.6%	+3.3%
2020-02-21	−62.6%	−71.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+100.7%	+0.0%	+100.7%
2020-04-03	+63.5%	+0.0%	+75.6%
2020-03-19	+58.4%	+0.0%	+62.1%

3,396 overlapping windows · 2013-02-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

62%

+1.5%

n=13

Feb

46%

−0.3%

n=13

Mar

43%

−3.5%

n=14

Apr

50%

+1.1%

n=14

May

50%

+1.2%

n=14

Jun

57%

+0.4%

n=14

Jul

57%

+1.1%

n=14

Aug

57%

−1.2%

n=14

Sep

50%

−3.1%

n=14

Oct

54%

+0.8%

n=13

Nov

85%

+4.1%

n=13

Dec

62%

+2.1%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2023-12-27	Bitting W Coleman	director	Purchase	5 @ $8.83	$47	+0.1% of holding	−2.7%	−10.3%	4,292	Form 4 · filed 461 days after the trade
2023-11-28	Bitting W Coleman	director	Purchase	7 @ $7.38	$54	+0.2% of holding	+13.7%	+8.3%	4,287	Form 4 · filed 490 days after the trade
2023-10-27	Bitting W Coleman	director	Purchase	11 @ $6.19	$70	+0.3% of holding	+16.0%	+30.7%	4,279	Form 4 · filed 522 days after the trade
2023-09-27	Bitting W Coleman	director	Purchase	8 @ $8.73	$69	+0.2% of holding	−24.3%	−7.3%	4,268	Form 4 · filed 552 days after the trade
2023-08-29	Bitting W Coleman	director	Purchase	7 @ $9.70	$68	+0.2% of holding	−7.4%	−16.1%	4,260	Form 4 · filed 581 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,855	125,986	Form 4
2026-07-31	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,791	124,131	Form 4
2026-07-01	Morabito Paula	director	Award / grant	3,586	55,686	Form 4
2026-07-01	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	3,586	122,340	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bitting W Coleman	director	Award / grant	3,586	53,875	Form 4
2026-07-01	FILIPPS FRANK P	director	Award / grant	3,586	53,875	Form 4
2026-06-30	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,679	118,754	Form 4
2026-06-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Withheld for tax	1,193	137,522	Form 4
2026-06-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Option exercise	3,031	138,715	Form 4
2026-06-26	Cauley Robert E	director	Option exercise	3,694	226,984	Form 4
2026-06-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Option exercise	3,032	97,940	Form 4
2026-06-26	Cauley Robert E	director	Option exercise	3,694	126,995	Form 4
2026-05-29	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,660	117,075	Form 4
2026-04-30	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,877	115,415	Form 4
2026-04-01	FILIPPS FRANK P	director	Award / grant	3,561	50,289	Form 4
2026-04-01	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	3,561	113,538	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bitting W Coleman	director	Award / grant	3,561	50,289	Form 4
2026-04-01	Morabito Paula	director	Award / grant	3,561	52,100	Form 4
2026-03-30	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,877	109,977	Form 4
2026-03-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Withheld for tax	1,133	135,684	Form 4
2026-03-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Option exercise	3,032	100,972	Form 4
2026-03-26	Cauley Robert E	director	Option exercise	3,694	223,290	Form 4
2026-03-26	Cauley Robert E	director	Option exercise	3,694	130,690	Form 4
2026-03-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Option exercise	3,031	136,817	Form 4
2026-03-23	Cauley Robert E	director	Withheld for tax	49,790	219,596	Form 4
2026-03-23	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Withheld for tax	36,896	133,786	Form 4
2026-03-23	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Award / grant	93,184	170,682	Form 4
2026-03-23	Cauley Robert E	director	Award / grant	121,891	134,384	Form 4
2026-03-23	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Award / grant	93,184	104,003	Form 4
2026-03-23	Cauley Robert E	director	Award / grant	121,891	269,386	Form 4
2026-02-27	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,680	108,100	Form 4
2026-01-30	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,559	106,420	Form 4
2026-01-02	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	3,472	104,861	Form 4
2026-01-02	Morabito Paula	director	Award / grant	3,472	48,539	Form 4
2026-01-02	Bitting W Coleman	director	Award / grant	3,472	46,728	Form 4
2026-01-02	FILIPPS FRANK P	director	Award / grant	3,472	46,728	Form 4
2025-12-30	Parker Ava L	director	Award / grant	1,644	101,389	Form 4
2025-12-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Withheld for tax	1,133	77,498	Form 4
2025-12-26	Cauley Robert E	director	Withheld for tax	753	147,495	Form 4
2025-12-26	Haas G Hunter IV	director	Option exercise	3,032	10,819	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i