Issued 2026-09-16 at $91.89 · now $91.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ORA has typically landed between $79.64 and $106.10 — a range of −13.3% to +15.5% from the issuance price $91.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($91.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ORA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $91.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $91.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $93.27 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $88.34–$98.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.64–$106.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-08 | −41.9% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-12-09 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +53.1% |
| 2020-12-14 | +48.0% | +0.0% | +51.6% |
| 2020-12-07 | +47.5% | −1.1% | +47.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Feb
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.5%
n=20
May
70%
+3.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
−0.0%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.3%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
45%
+1.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Willis Aron John | officer | Sale | 451 @ $106.64 | $48K | −24.9% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 250 @ $138.42 | $35K | −4.1% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Granot David | director | Sale | 1,766 @ $134.43 | $237K | −100.0% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Granot David | director | Sale | 1,753 @ $132.70 | $233K | −49.8% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Marom Michal | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $130.97 | $403K | −63.6% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 577 @ $130.17 | $75K | −8.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,050 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Sale | 15,217 @ $135.02 | $2.1M | −88.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Sale | 2,559 @ $133.12 | $341K | −13.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Sale | 9,429 @ $131.02 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Wong Byron G. | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $134.32 | $604K | −43.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,925 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 883 @ $122.44 | $108K | −21.9% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 2,666 @ $110.39 | $294K | −43.7% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,433 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 834 @ $110.37 | $92K | −12.0% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 427 @ $107.37 | $46K | −5.8% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 136 @ $107.79 | $15K | −1.8% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 2,359 @ $105.16 | $248K | −40.7% of holding | +10.7% | −11.2% | 3,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 869 @ $104.59 | $91K | −13.0% of holding | +9.6% | −17.0% | 5,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 721 @ $115.00 | $83K | −17.4% of holding | −2.0% | +7.2% | 3,433 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $112.72 | $2.3M | −81.7% of holding | −3.7% | +0.8% | 4,482 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Angel Isaac | director | Sale | 18,018 @ $112.42 | $2.0M | −37.8% of holding | −3.7% | +0.8% | 29,650 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Barniv Ravit | director | Sale | 1,753 @ $112.54 | $197K | −100.0% of holding | −3.7% | +0.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Sale | 511 @ $113.30 | $58K | −31.5% of holding | −3.7% | +0.8% | 1,110 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 368 @ $112.36 | $41K | −9.7% of holding | −3.7% | +0.8% | 3,433 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Sale | 9,890 @ $115.00 | $1.1M | −85.9% of holding | −2.2% | −2.4% | 1,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 981 @ $96.70 | $95K | −30.3% of holding | +8.3% | +19.4% | 2,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 400 @ $95.98 | $38K | −7.6% of holding | +8.3% | +19.4% | 4,861 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Blachar Doron | officer | Sale | 14,994 @ $94.71 | $1.4M | −29.7% of holding | +7.7% | +18.8% | 35,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 5,611 @ $94.80 | $532K | −62.0% of holding | +7.7% | +18.8% | 3,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 229 @ $94.83 | $22K | −4.2% of holding | +8.9% | +19.6% | 5,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Sale | 9,343 @ $93.31 | $872K | −27.6% of holding | +15.0% | +14.7% | 24,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 876 @ $91.98 | $81K | −14.3% of holding | +0.1% | +5.8% | 5,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Sale | 7,066 @ $94.71 | $669K | −17.3% of holding | −4.2% | +15.2% | 33,825 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 692 @ $94.57 | $65K | −11.7% of holding | −4.2% | +15.2% | 5,234 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Granot David | director | Sale | 100 @ $92.43 | $9K | −3.9% of holding | −5.1% | +16.6% | 2,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Granot David | director | Sale | 99 @ $92.44 | $9K | −3.7% of holding | −5.1% | +16.6% | 2,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Wong Byron G. | director | Sale | 343 @ $91.39 | $31K | −3.8% of holding | −1.8% | +24.6% | 8,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Wong Byron G. | director | Sale | 192 @ $91.39 | $18K | −2.2% of holding | −1.8% | +24.6% | 8,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Wong Byron G. | director | Sale | 460 @ $84.04 | $39K | −5.0% of holding | +1.4% | +21.6% | 8,659 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Sale | 8,548 @ $86.31 | $738K | −84.1% of holding | −1.3% | +16.8% | 1,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $85.58 | $103K | −27.0% of holding | +1.6% | +17.2% | 3,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | STERN STANLEY | director | Sale | 547 @ $85.54 | $47K | −8.2% of holding | +1.6% | +17.2% | 6,137 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 280 @ $85.81 | $24K | −5.9% of holding | +1.6% | +17.2% | 4,438 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 121 @ $85.67 | $10K | −2.7% of holding | +1.6% | +17.2% | 4,438 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Granot David | director | Sale | 1,072 @ $85.00 | $91K | −30.2% of holding | −0.1% | +15.4% | 2,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 313 @ $85.00 | $27K | −5.0% of holding | −0.1% | +15.4% | 5,926 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 251 @ $82.00 | $21K | −3.9% of holding | −0.1% | +15.4% | 6,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Marom Michal | director | Sale | 895 @ $73.47 | $66K | −22.5% of holding | +8.7% | +37.5% | 3,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Sale | 876 @ $75.00 | $66K | −16.5% of holding | +12.7% | +31.1% | 4,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Granot David | director | Sale | 404 @ $73.01 | $29K | −11.7% of holding | +5.2% | +37.1% | 3,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Granot David | director | Sale | 323 @ $72.99 | $24K | −10.6% of holding | +5.2% | +37.1% | 2,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Granot David | director | Sale | 112 @ $73.84 | $8K | −3.1% of holding | +5.2% | +37.1% | 3,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Granot David | director | Sale | 111 @ $73.01 | $8K | −3.1% of holding | +5.2% | +37.1% | 3,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 167 @ $71.64 | $12K | −2.5% of holding | +7.4% | +16.0% | 6,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Sale | 409 @ $72.15 | $30K | −6.3% of holding | +3.6% | +10.5% | 6,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Granot David | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $69.00 | $115K | −46.6% of holding | +6.8% | +22.6% | 1,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | ORIX CORP | other | Sale | 3,700,000 @ $75.38 | $278.9M | −55.4% of holding | −5.0% | +18.1% | 2,976,077 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Willis Aron John | officer | Option exercise | 1,812 | 1,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Willis Aron John | officer | Option exercise | 1,812 | 3,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Granot David | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | STERN STANLEY | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wong Byron G. | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Angel Isaac | director | Award / grant | 1,245 | 1,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Barniv Ravit | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Corfee Karin | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Marom Michal | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Award / grant | 899 | 899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Disposition | 2,943 | 19,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Option exercise | 5,502 | 22,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ginzburg Assi | officer | Option exercise | 5,502 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Disposition | 602 | 9,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | 1,101 | 10,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | — | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | — | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Corfee Karin | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 6,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Marom Michal | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Marom Michal | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 4,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 4,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | SHARIR DAFNA | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | STERN STANLEY | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 6,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | STERN STANLEY | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wong Byron G. | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 10,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wong Byron G. | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Angel Isaac | director | Option exercise | 2,445 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Barniv Ravit | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 1,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Barniv Ravit | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Corfee Karin | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Granot David | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 3,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Granot David | director | Option exercise | 1,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Angel Isaac | director | Option exercise | 2,445 | 32,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | 626 | 5,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | 3,888 | 8,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Option exercise | 626 | 626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Benyosef Ofer | officer | Award / grant | 1,296 | 1,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Blachar Doron | officer | Option exercise | 2,252 | 2,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Option exercise | 563 | 3,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Woelfel Jessica | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 7,496 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.