OPY · TickerCove

OPYOppenheimer Holdings Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-17

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $114.30 · now $114.30 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, OPY has typically landed between $98.92 and $133.92 — a range of −13.5% to +17.2% from the issuance price $114.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,004 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($114.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$114.3 · 83% of range

$63.12 low$124.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,377 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 12.6%

−13.5%worst (p90)+17.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OPY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $114.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $114.3 (+0.0%)
typical $116.08 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $108.89–$123.26
90% range $98.92–$133.92

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-21	−55.8%	−55.8%	+0.0%
2008-10-22	−49.8%	−49.8%	+9.4%
2020-02-18	−44.6%	−44.6%	+3.0%
3 best
2009-03-09	+64.2%	+0.0%	+76.7%
2009-05-01	+60.5%	+0.0%	+60.5%
2009-05-13	+58.5%	+0.0%	+59.3%

5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Feb

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Mar

65%

+0.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+1.7%

n=20

May

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Jun

65%

+3.8%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.1%

n=20

Aug

55%

−1.6%

n=20

Sep

45%

−2.8%

n=20

Oct

60%

+3.9%

n=20

Nov

45%

+4.3%

n=20

Dec

70%

+2.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-02	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Sale	4,673 @ $90.67	$424K	−18.8% of holding	+3.7%	+19.4%	20,177	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $73.81	$148K	−8.4% of holding	−2.1%	+15.6%	21,766	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10	Friedman Paul M	director	Sale	3,500 @ $63.31	$222K	−17.1% of holding	−0.2%	−2.7%	17,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09	Friedman Paul M	director	Sale	3,500 @ $63.32	$222K	−14.6% of holding	+1.4%	−6.3%	20,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06	Friedman Paul M	director	Sale	3,000 @ $63.11	$189K	−11.1% of holding	+1.1%	−7.3%	24,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-08	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	100,000	305,000	Form 4
2026-05-08	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	100,000	305,000	Form 4
2026-02-26	Glasser Teresa	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Friedman Paul M	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Spaulding Suzanne	director	Other acquisition	1,400	5,900	Form 4
2026-02-26	Spaulding Suzanne	director	Other acquisition	1,400	5,900	Form 4
2026-02-26	BEHRENS EVAN	director	Other acquisition	1,400	7,025	Form 4
2026-02-26	Kanter Stacy J.	director	Other acquisition	1,400	5,900	Form 4
2026-02-26	BEHRENS EVAN	director	Other acquisition	1,400	7,025	Form 4
2026-02-26	Dwyer Timothy Martin	director	Other acquisition	1,400	28,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Friedman Paul M	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	ROTH R LAWRENCE	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Glasser Teresa	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	ROTH R LAWRENCE	director	Other acquisition	1,400	18,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Dwyer Timothy Martin	director	Other acquisition	1,400	28,400	Form 4
2026-02-26	Kanter Stacy J.	director	Other acquisition	1,400	5,900	Form 4
2026-02-06	Watkins Brad M	officer	Other acquisition	2,000	20,000	Form 4
2026-02-06	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	100,000	205,000	Form 4
2026-02-06	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	40,000	267,500	Form 4
2026-02-06	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	2,000	11,500	Form 4
2026-02-06	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	40,000	267,500	Form 4
2026-02-06	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	2,000	11,500	Form 4
2026-02-06	Watkins Brad M	officer	Other acquisition	2,000	20,000	Form 4
2026-02-06	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	100,000	205,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	55,725	254,876	Form 4
2026-01-28	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	3,084	24,850	Form 4
2026-01-28	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	5,000	9,500	Form 4
2026-01-28	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	3,084	24,850	Form 4
2026-01-28	McNAMARA DENNIS P	officer	Other acquisition	5,000	9,500	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	35,505	129,608	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	75,000	105,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	55,725	254,876	Form 4
2026-01-28	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	110,000	227,500	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	35,505	129,608	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lowenthal Robert S	director	Other acquisition	75,000	105,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	LOWENTHAL ALBERT G	director	Other acquisition	110,000	227,500	Form 4
2025-09-22	Spaulding Suzanne	director	Other acquisition	3,000	4,500	Form 4
2025-09-22	Spaulding Suzanne	director	Other acquisition	3,000	4,500	Form 4
2025-01-30	Kanter Stacy J.	director	Other acquisition	1,500	4,500	Form 4
2025-01-30	Dwyer Timothy Martin	director	Other acquisition	1,500	27,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-181% elapsed2026-10-16

Logged immutably 2026-09-18; scored automatically on 2026-10-16 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i