OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.06 · now $35.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OPLN has typically landed between $30.32 and $41.40 — a range of −13.5% to +18.1% from the issuance price $35.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,194 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-12-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OPLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$30.32worst · -13.5%$41.4best · +18.1%
  • now $35.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.27 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.08–$37.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.32–$41.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,194 windows spanning 2009-12-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−53.5%−53.5%+0.0%
2020-02-24−51.6%−52.0%+0.0%
2020-03-05−49.9%−49.9%+0.0%
3 best
2022-02-11+53.8%+0.0%+59.3%
2022-02-14+53.3%+0.0%+55.0%
2022-02-16+50.5%+0.0%+53.2%

4,194 overlapping windows · 2009-12-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
59%
+1.5%
n=17
Feb
41%
+1.2%
n=17
Mar
59%
+0.2%
n=17
Apr
41%
+3.8%
n=17
May
76%
+4.5%
n=17
Jun
53%
+1.1%
n=17
Jul
71%
+2.5%
n=17
Aug
47%
+0.4%
n=17
Sep
29%
−3.3%
n=17
Oct
56%
+1.7%
n=16
Nov
44%
+1.8%
n=16
Dec
75%
+3.1%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$242026-08-24: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Kelly Peter J2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $274.9M — Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP2026-05-28: 8 insider sales, $0 — Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP …2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $500K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $274.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kelly Peter J — Purchase on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same daytenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Kelly Peter JdirectorPurchase14,830 @ $33.72$500Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,830Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale8,000,000 @ $34.36$274.9M−48.7% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open8,424,728Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerSale288,323—−100.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-09Price Dwayne PofficerWithheld for tax12616,173Form 4
2026-08-09Price Dwayne PofficerOption exercise441442Form 4
2026-08-09Price Dwayne PofficerOption exercise44116,299Form 4
2026-08-05Hult David WdirectorAward / grant5,6465,646Form 4
2026-06-30Smith Mary EllendirectorAward / grant60739,770Form 4
2026-06-05Galvin CarmeldirectorAward / grant6,03123,359Form 4
2026-06-05HOWELL J MARKdirectorAward / grant6,03172,938Form 4
2026-06-05Jacoby StefandirectorAward / grant6,03153,657Form 4
2026-06-05Kestner Michael T.directorAward / grant6,03189,593Form 4
2026-06-05TUMINELLI KELLY LdirectorAward / grant6,0316,031Form 4
2026-06-05Smith Mary EllendirectorAward / grant6,03149,354Form 4
2026-06-05Altschuler RandolphdirectorAward / grant6,03122,953Form 4
2026-05-28Ignition Acquisition Holdings LPtenPercentOwnerConversion16,424,72816,424,728Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.