Issued 2026-09-25 at $1.64 · now $1.64 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, OPK has typically landed between $1.27 and $2.08 — a range of −22.5% to +26.9% from the issuance price $1.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OPK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.63 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.48–$1.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.27–$2.08
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-09 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-11 | −50.8% | −51.6% | +2.4% |
| 2009-02-13 | −48.8% | −52.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-19 | +150.4% | +0.0% | +150.4% |
| 2007-03-14 | +128.6% | +0.0% | +128.6% |
| 2020-06-25 | +118.3% | +0.0% | +122.4% |
5,010 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Phase 1/2 Study of OPK-88006 in Healthy and Presumed MASH Participants (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | PAGANELLI JOHN A | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.14 | $11K | +2.6% of holding | +0.4% | +31.3% | 394,340 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 192,870 @ $1.33 | $257K | +0.1% of holding | −5.5% | −16.0% | 216,706,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 191,490 @ $1.33 | $255K | +0.1% of holding | −5.5% | −16.0% | 216,513,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 102,371 @ $1.30 | $133K | +0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −16.0% | 216,228,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 89,375 @ $1.32 | $118K | +0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −16.0% | 216,322,088 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 3,894 @ $1.32 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −16.0% | 216,232,713 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 211,948 @ $1.33 | $282K | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 215,924,630 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 161,818 @ $1.33 | $216K | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 216,086,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 119,129 @ $1.32 | $157K | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 215,665,577 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 47,105 @ $1.32 | $62K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 215,712,682 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 24,579 @ $1.34 | $33K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 216,111,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 13,664 @ $1.35 | $18K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 216,126,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 1,757 @ $1.34 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 216,112,784 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 198,904 @ $1.31 | $262K | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,390,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 155,496 @ $1.32 | $205K | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,546,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 66,504 @ $1.31 | $87K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,192,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 58,160 @ $1.28 | $75K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,060,933 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 36,325 @ $1.28 | $46K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,002,773 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 30,082 @ $1.30 | $39K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,112,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 21,236 @ $1.29 | $28K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,082,469 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 12,993 @ $1.30 | $17K | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,125,544 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 300 @ $1.29 | $387 | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.2% | 215,061,233 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 212,608 @ $1.27 | $271K | +0.1% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,779,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 83,556 @ $1.28 | $107K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,932,875 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 69,728 @ $1.28 | $89K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,848,891 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 66,635 @ $1.25 | $84K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,503,083 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 49,590 @ $1.25 | $62K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,436,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 33,572 @ $1.29 | $43K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,966,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $1.26 | $19K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,564,783 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 1,772 @ $1.27 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,566,555 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 428 @ $1.28 | $550 | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,849,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 410 @ $1.25 | $510 | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,386,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 1 @ $1.29 | $1 | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 214,932,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-31 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $1.42 | $213K | +0.1% of holding | −2.1% | −23.6% | 214,386,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 675,000 @ $1.32 | $891K | +0.3% of holding | +10.7% | −11.9% | 214,676,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 125,000 @ $1.36 | $170K | +0.1% of holding | −18.5% | −14.2% | 214,001,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-08 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 125,000 @ $1.48 | $185K | +0.1% of holding | −27.5% | −30.2% | 213,876,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.65 | $165K | +0.0% of holding | −18.2% | −26.5% | 213,751,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $1.70 | $254K | +0.1% of holding | −17.4% | −33.7% | 213,651,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $1.74 | $348K | +0.1% of holding | −15.5% | −40.3% | 213,501,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $436500.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −12.2% | −40.4% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $436500.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −12.2% | −40.4% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $436500.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −12.2% | −40.4% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1703250.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1703250.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1707125.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1707125.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1703250.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1707125.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.5% | −32.6% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 67,434 @ $1.71 | $115K | +0.0% of holding | +1.0% | −29.9% | 213,301,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1652750.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +1.0% | −29.9% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1652750.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +1.0% | −29.9% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | — @ $1652750.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +1.0% | −29.9% | — | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 47,537 @ $1.47 | $70K | +0.0% of holding | +11.9% | −16.2% | 213,234,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-17 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $1.47 | $220K | +0.1% of holding | +13.8% | −12.0% | 213,186,477 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-15 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.48 | $741K | +0.2% of holding | +8.7% | −14.7% | 213,036,477 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 125,000 @ $1.59 | $199K | +0.1% of holding | −5.8% | −18.4% | 212,536,477 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.56 | $781K | +0.2% of holding | −3.1% | −16.2% | 212,411,477 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-29 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 199,072 @ $1.53 | $305K | +0.1% of holding | −2.1% | −11.9% | 211,911,477 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-22 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.59 | $159K | +0.0% of holding | −5.7% | −13.6% | 211,712,405 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Rubin Steven D | director | Withheld for tax | 53,266 | 6,571,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Logal Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 53,266 | 563,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | MEDEL ROGER MD | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yu Alice Lin-Tsing | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | UPPALURI SUBBARAO V | director | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PAGANELLI JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PFENNIGER RICHARD C JR | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lachman Prem A | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | UPPALURI SUBBARAO V | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Award / grant | 46,700 | 214,549,783 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Gift | 440,000 | 214,236,448 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | HSIAO JANE PH D | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Rubin Steven D | director | Award / grant | 437,500 | 437,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Nabel Gary J. | director | Award / grant | 437,500 | 437,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Logal Adam | officer | Award / grant | 437,500 | 437,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | KRASNO RICHARD M | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Yu Alice Lin-Tsing | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Lachman Prem A | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | MEDEL ROGER MD | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | PFENNIGER RICHARD C JR | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | PAGANELLI JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | Nabel Gary J. | director | Award / grant | 437,500 | 700,579 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | FROST PHILLIP MD ET AL | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 3,568,951 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | HSIAO JANE PH D | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 28,499,880 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | Logal Adam | officer | Award / grant | 437,500 | 616,662 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 589,600 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-24 | Rubin Steven D | director | Award / grant | 437,500 | 6,625,232 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.