Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.92 · now $1.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OPAL has typically landed between $1.47 and $2.32 — a range of −23.3% to +21.1% from the issuance price $1.92.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,314 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OPAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.92 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.89 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.77–$2.01
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.47–$2.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,314 windows spanning 2021-05-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −41.5% | −42.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | −40.8% | −40.8% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-28 | +119.7% | +0.0% | +119.7% |
| 2025-04-29 | +111.4% | −1.1% | +117.1% |
| 2025-04-30 | +105.2% | +0.0% | +119.7% |
1,314 overlapping windows · 2021-05-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−5.0%
n=5
Feb
40%
−4.2%
n=5
Mar
60%
−2.4%
n=5
Apr
40%
−2.5%
n=5
May
60%
+18.6%
n=5
Jun
50%
−5.4%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.4%
n=6
Aug
17%
−6.6%
n=6
Sep
50%
−1.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
−1.6%
n=5
Nov
60%
+0.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
−7.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.08 | $42K | +4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 509,626 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.93 | $97K | +11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 489,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.91 | $19K | +3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 267,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.98 | $20K | +4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Sutton Scott McDougald | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.95 | $98K | ownership Δ n/a | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.25 | $11K | +2.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.32 | $23K | +4.3% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 7,946 @ $2.00 | $16K | +3.3% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 4,346 @ $2.06 | $9K | +1.9% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 25,105 @ $2.05 | $51K | +12.1% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 12,603 @ $2.02 | $25K | +6.4% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.02 | $10K | +2.2% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.94 | $19K | +4.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,785 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.05 | $21K | +4.8% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,785 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Comora Mark S | director | Purchase | 3,000,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +16.8% | −20.3% | 3,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Comora Mark S | director | Purchase | 3,000,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +16.8% | −20.3% | 3,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 18,256 @ $2.32 | $42K | +7.7% of holding | −11.2% | −13.0% | 254,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 21,744 @ $2.30 | $50K | +10.1% of holding | −13.8% | −15.0% | 236,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.17 | $32K | +7.6% of holding | −26.5% | −31.0% | 141,712 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $3.10 | $310 | +0.0% of holding | −26.5% | −31.0% | 214,517 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 2,600 @ $3.06 | $8K | +1.2% of holding | −25.1% | −30.8% | 214,417 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 5,400 @ $3.08 | $17K | +2.6% of holding | −24.3% | −32.8% | 211,817 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.74 | $69K | +16.5% of holding | −7.4% | −32.1% | 176,716 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 12,700 @ $2.72 | $35K | +10.9% of holding | −7.4% | −32.1% | 129,599 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.87 | $14K | +3.9% of holding | −7.4% | −32.1% | 131,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 37,532 @ $2.51 | $94K | +47.3% of holding | +5.2% | −31.8% | 116,899 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.54 | $25K | +8.6% of holding | +5.2% | −31.8% | 126,712 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 8,400 @ $2.50 | $21K | +4.2% of holding | +5.2% | −31.8% | 206,417 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-21 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 16,600 @ $2.49 | $41K | +9.2% of holding | +8.7% | −28.3% | 198,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 9,477 @ $2.50 | $24K | +13.6% of holding | +8.7% | −28.3% | 79,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.50 | $13K | +4.5% of holding | +8.7% | −28.3% | 116,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 12,378 @ $2.50 | $31K | +21.5% of holding | +30.2% | −12.8% | 69,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.53 | $13K | +4.7% of holding | +30.2% | −12.8% | 111,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 38,726 @ $2.57 | $100K | +27.1% of holding | +26.2% | −30.7% | 181,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.66 | $27K | +10.3% of holding | +26.2% | −30.7% | 106,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Dols Scott V. | director | Purchase | 800 @ $2.53 | $2K | +1.4% of holding | +26.2% | −30.7% | 57,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Nisar Nadeem | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.45 | $25K | +11.5% of holding | +31.3% | −16.6% | 96,712 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Comora Adam | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $2.37 | $14K | +4.4% of holding | +31.3% | −16.6% | 142,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 58,813 | 346,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 58,813 | 424,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hasan Kazi | officer | Withheld for tax | 52,931 | 140,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,093 | 175,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hasan Kazi | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,466 | 46,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,227 | 242,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,227 | 320,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,525 | 139,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,584 | 227,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,930 | 199,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,930 | 277,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Birck Darrell | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,938 | 27,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,479 | 98,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,479 | 190,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,379 | 439,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,379 | 361,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,034 | 83,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,910 | 146,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,095 | 230,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Award / grant | 162,292 | 162,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 67,204 | 67,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Maurer Jonathan Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 163,143 | 326,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Award / grant | 90,656 | 90,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Option exercise | 65,258 | 130,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Award / grant | 56,660 | 56,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Award / grant | 101,433 | 101,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Option exercise | 5,811 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Option exercise | 23,522 | 23,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unger David C | officer | Option exercise | 80,703 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Option exercise | 23,522 | 23,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Option exercise | 35,868 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Option exercise | 67,204 | 67,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Option exercise | 163,143 | 326,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Coghlin John | officer | Option exercise | 16,738 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hasan Kazi | officer | Award / grant | 101,988 | 101,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Option exercise | 23,243 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Award / grant | 405,729 | 405,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Adam | officer | Award / grant | 226,640 | 226,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Mark S | director | Option exercise | 66,073 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Comora Mark S | director | Award / grant | 54,773 | 54,773 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.