ONTO · TickerCove

ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $243.64 · now $243.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONTO has typically landed between $191.39 and $312.96 — a range of −21.4% to +28.5% from the issuance price $243.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($243.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$243.64 · 49% of range

$116 low$378.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.9%

typical move · IQR 18.7%

−21.4%worst (p90)+28.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ONTO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $243.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $243.64 (+0.0%)
typical $250.59 (+2.9%)
middle 50% $227.83–$273.34
90% range $191.39–$312.96

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-11	−64.2%	−64.2%	+1.0%
2008-09-10	−61.9%	−61.9%	+0.0%
2008-09-09	−57.8%	−57.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-08-07	+123.1%	−11.5%	+123.1%
2009-08-12	+110.8%	−2.8%	+141.7%
2009-08-11	+109.9%	+0.0%	+152.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+3.8%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Mar

55%

+0.6%

n=20

Apr

45%

+3.5%

n=20

May

60%

+4.8%

n=20

Jun

70%

+5.8%

n=20

Jul

35%

−2.9%

n=20

Aug

65%

+6.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Oct

50%

+2.0%

n=20

Nov

65%

+5.1%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Lynch Susan D	director	Sale	1,000 @ $302.30	$302K	−27.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,684	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13	Vedula Srinivas	officer	Sale	238 @ $169.58	$40K	−1.5% of holding	−13.6%	−44.6%	15,472	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-21	Plisinski Michael P	director	Sale	35,000 @ $219.19	$7.7M	−18.9% of holding	−25.1%	−61.6%	150,492	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-16	Plisinski Michael P	director	Sale	29,900 @ $211.24	$6.3M	−13.9% of holding	−22.3%	−60.1%	185,592	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-16	Plisinski Michael P	director	Sale	100 @ $212.11	$21K	−0.1% of holding	−22.3%	−60.1%	185,492	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-15	Vedula Srinivas	officer	Sale	827 @ $205.00	$170K	−5.2% of holding	−16.6%	−59.1%	15,223	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14	Plisinski Michael P	director	Sale	18,268 @ $200.09	$3.7M	−7.8% of holding	−18.7%	−59.7%	217,224	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-14	Plisinski Michael P	director	Sale	1,732 @ $201.26	$349K	−0.8% of holding	−18.7%	−59.7%	215,492	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	ROBERTS BRIAN K	officer	Withheld for tax	3,239	21,032	Form 4
2026-09-02	Chen Shirley	officer	Withheld for tax	1,516	14,001	Form 4
2026-05-20	Su May	director	Award / grant	761	7,984	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kelley Stephen Douglas	director	Award / grant	761	6,384	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHWARTZ STEPHEN S	director	Award / grant	761	3,536	Form 4
2026-05-20	SEAMS CHRISTOPHER A	director	Award / grant	761	38,513	Form 4
2026-05-20	MILLER DAVID BRIAN	director	Award / grant	761	12,692	Form 4
2026-05-20	Lynch Susan D	director	Award / grant	761	3,684	Form 4
2026-05-15	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Withheld for tax	625	17,593	Form 4
2026-05-15	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Withheld for tax	530	21,110	Form 4
2026-05-15	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Withheld for tax	218	18,218	Form 4
2026-03-03	Plisinski Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	3,742	179,242	Form 4
2026-03-03	Dolev Ido	officer	Withheld for tax	819	26,536	Form 4
2026-03-03	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Withheld for tax	615	18,436	Form 4
2026-03-03	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Withheld for tax	417	21,640	Form 4
2026-03-02	Dolev Ido	officer	Award / grant	1,720	1,720	Form 4
2026-03-02	Dolev Ido	officer	Award / grant	3,440	27,355	Form 4
2026-03-02	Chen Shirley	officer	Award / grant	2,523	15,517	Form 4
2026-03-02	Chen Shirley	officer	Award / grant	1,261	1,261	Form 4
2026-03-02	Plisinski Michael P	director	Award / grant	14,479	182,984	Form 4
2026-03-02	Plisinski Michael P	director	Award / grant	7,239	7,239	Form 4
2026-03-02	ROBERTS BRIAN K	officer	Award / grant	1,548	1,548	Form 4
2026-03-02	ROBERTS BRIAN K	officer	Award / grant	3,096	24,271	Form 4
2026-03-02	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Award / grant	7,683	19,051	Form 4
2026-03-02	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Award / grant	1,548	1,548	Form 4
2026-03-02	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Award / grant	2,408	22,057	Form 4
2026-03-02	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Award / grant	1,204	1,204	Form 4
2026-03-01	Plisinski Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	2,222	170,430	Form 4
2026-03-01	Plisinski Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	1,925	168,505	Form 4
2026-03-01	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Withheld for tax	347	11,644	Form 4
2026-03-01	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Withheld for tax	307	19,916	Form 4
2026-03-01	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Withheld for tax	276	11,368	Form 4
2026-03-01	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Withheld for tax	267	19,649	Form 4
2026-03-01	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Option exercise	649	11,991	Form 4
2026-03-01	Plisinski Michael P	director	Option exercise	5,971	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Option exercise	941	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	OH Yoon Ah	officer	Option exercise	724	20,223	Form 4
2026-03-01	YALDAEI RAMIL	officer	Option exercise	844	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Plisinski Michael P	director	Option exercise	4,597	172,652	Form 4
2026-02-14	Plisinski Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	8,919	171,687	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i