ONONOn Holding AGConsumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.15 · now $27.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONON has typically landed between $21.44 and $34.34 — a range of −21.0% to +26.5% from the issuance price $27.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,235 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ONON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.44worst · -21.0%$34.34best · +26.5%
  • now $27.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.85 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.11–$29.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.44–$34.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,235 windows spanning 2021-09-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-12-23−34.1%−34.1%+0.2%
2021-12-29−34.1%−34.6%+4.5%
2022-02-10−32.2%−32.2%+0.0%
3 best
2021-10-19+72.8%+0.0%+72.8%
2021-10-18+51.7%−1.0%+51.7%
2023-02-23+49.6%−4.3%+49.6%

1,235 overlapping windows · 2021-09-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+2.0%
n=5
Feb
40%
+0.4%
n=5
Mar
60%
+2.1%
n=5
Apr
60%
+1.5%
n=5
May
60%
+7.9%
n=5
Jun
20%
−5.7%
n=5
Jul
80%
+6.9%
n=5
Aug
20%
−8.6%
n=5
Sep
20%
−5.5%
n=5
Oct
40%
−0.5%
n=5
Nov
100%
+16.5%
n=5
Dec
20%
−5.0%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$272026-09-08: 2 insider sales, $60K — Maguire Scott Andrew, Sluis Frank2026-08-14: 2 insider purchases, $4.0M — Bernhard Olivier, Coppetti Caspar Felix2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $55K — Maguire Scott Andrew2026-05-14: 6 insider purchases, $6.6M — Bernhard Olivier, Allemann David Michael, Coppetti Caspar Felix …2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $149K — Hoffmann Martin2026-04-20: 1 insider sale, $152K — Hoffmann Martin2026-04-13: 1 insider sale, $141K — Hoffmann Martin2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $139K — Hoffmann Martin2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $134K — Hoffmann Martin2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $165K — Hoffmann Martin2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $299K2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $581K2026-05: 6 open-market purchases, $6.6M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $55K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $4.0M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $60K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Maguire Scott Andrew — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sluis Frank — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bernhard Olivier — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Coppetti Caspar Felix — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Maguire Scott Andrew — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bernhard Olivier — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Allemann David Michael — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Coppetti Caspar Felix — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Coppetti Caspar Felix — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bernhard Olivier — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Allemann David Michael — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-04-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Martin — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Maguire Scott AndrewofficerSale1,475 @ $27.74$41K−16.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,329Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08Sluis FrankofficerSale687 @ $27.74$19K−40.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open997Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14Bernhard OlivierdirectorPurchase65,000 @ $30.67$2.0M+1.3% of holding−14.5%not yet — horizon still open5,228,184Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-14Coppetti Caspar FelixdirectorPurchase65,000 @ $30.67$2.0M+2.7% of holding−14.5%not yet — horizon still open2,440,855Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-08Maguire Scott AndrewofficerSale1,534 @ $36.08$55K−23.4% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open5,032Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Bernhard OlivierdirectorPurchase50,856 @ $36.75$1.9M+1.0% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open5,163,184Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Allemann David MichaeldirectorPurchase50,856 @ $36.75$1.9M+1.8% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,841,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Coppetti Caspar FelixdirectorPurchase50,853 @ $36.75$1.9M+2.2% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,375,855Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Coppetti Caspar FelixdirectorPurchase9,147 @ $35.97$329K+0.4% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,325,002Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Bernhard OlivierdirectorPurchase9,144 @ $35.97$329K+0.2% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open5,112,328Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Allemann David MichaeldirectorPurchase9,144 @ $35.97$329K+0.3% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,790,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $35.84$149K−0.3% of holding+5.3%not yet — horizon still open1,385,099Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-20Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $36.56$152K−0.3% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open1,389,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-13Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $33.95$141K−0.3% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open1,393,399Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $33.58$139K−0.3% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open1,397,549Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $32.31$134K−0.3% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open1,401,699Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Hoffmann MartinofficerSale4,150 @ $39.79$165K−0.3% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open1,357,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise3,7728,804Form 4
2026-09-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise1,55110,862Form 4
2026-09-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise1,70017,003Form 4
2026-09-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise5215,215Form 4
2026-09-05Sluis FrankofficerOption exercise1,6841,684Form 4
2026-09-05Sluis FrankofficerOption exercise1,68418,537Form 4
2026-06-25Helmersson HelenadirectorWithheld for tax4524,389Form 4
2026-06-25Miele LauradirectorWithheld for tax4348,896Form 4
2026-06-22Sluis FrankofficerAward / grant20,22120,221Form 4
2026-06-22Perez AlexandredirectorAward / grant2,0649,775,182Form 4
2026-06-22Miele LauradirectorAward / grant1,7369,330Form 4
2026-06-22Perez AlexandredirectorAward / grant2,0649,775,182Form 4
2026-06-22Helmersson HelenadirectorAward / grant1,7364,841Form 4
2026-06-22Banse AmydirectorAward / grant1,73679,481Form 4
2026-06-22Durkin Dennis MdirectorAward / grant2,064101,586Form 4
2026-06-22Miele LauradirectorAward / grant1,7369,330Form 4
2026-06-22Helmersson HelenadirectorAward / grant1,7364,841Form 4
2026-06-22Durkin Dennis MdirectorAward / grant2,064101,586Form 4
2026-06-22Banse AmydirectorAward / grant1,73679,481Form 4
2026-06-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise5215,736Form 4
2026-06-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise1,69918,703Form 4
2026-06-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise1,55112,413Form 4
2026-06-05Maguire Scott AndrewofficerOption exercise3,7716,566Form 4
2026-03-27Hoffmann MartinofficerOption exercise12,5001,405,849Form 4
2026-03-27Hoffmann MartinofficerOption exercise11,3291,393,349Form 4
2026-03-27Hoffmann MartinofficerOption exercise12,500198,554Form 4
2026-03-27Hoffmann MartinofficerOption exercise11,3290Form 4
2026-03-26Helmersson HelenadirectorWithheld for tax4403,105Form 4
2026-03-26Miele LauradirectorWithheld for tax4237,594Form 4
2026-03-24Hoffmann MartinofficerOther acquisition211,053211,053Form 4
2026-03-24Helmersson HelenadirectorAward / grant1,6893,545Form 4
2026-03-24Durkin Dennis MdirectorAward / grant2,00899,522Form 4
2026-03-24Miele LauradirectorAward / grant1,6898,017Form 4
2026-03-24Perez AlexandredirectorAward / grant2,0089,773,118Form 4
2026-03-24Banse AmydirectorAward / grant1,68977,745Form 4
2026-03-24Helmersson HelenadirectorAward / grant1,6893,545Form 4
2026-03-24Perez AlexandredirectorAward / grant2,0089,773,118Form 4
2026-03-24Hoffmann MartinofficerOther acquisition2,110,5340Form 4
2026-03-24Banse AmydirectorAward / grant1,68977,745Form 4
2026-03-24Miele LauradirectorAward / grant1,6898,017Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.