ONLOrion Properties Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Officeas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.43 · now $2.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONL has typically landed between $1.95 and $2.88 — a range of −20.0% to +18.6% from the issuance price $2.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,197 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ONL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.95worst · -20.0%$2.88best · +18.6%
  • now $2.43 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.38 (-2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.2–$2.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.95–$2.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,197 windows spanning 2021-11-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-05−51.8%−51.8%+0.0%
2025-03-04−48.3%−48.3%+0.0%
2025-02-24−48.1%−48.1%+0.8%
3 best
2026-03-30+44.8%+0.0%+44.8%
2025-05-21+41.8%+0.0%+41.8%
2026-03-27+39.5%+0.0%+39.5%

1,197 overlapping windows · 2021-11-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−0.1%
n=5
Feb
60%
−5.5%
n=5
Mar
20%
−18.9%
n=5
Apr
20%
−1.0%
n=5
May
60%
+3.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
+2.6%
n=5
Jul
40%
+5.0%
n=5
Aug
60%
+0.5%
n=5
Sep
0%
−8.5%
n=5
Oct
25%
−4.1%
n=4
Nov
50%
+2.9%
n=4
Dec
60%
+0.5%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$22025-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $160K — GILYARD REGINALD HAROLD2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $160K↑ buys↓ salesdirector GILYARD REGINALD HAROLD — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-27GILYARD REGINALD HAROLDdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $2.91$160K+31.8% of holding−7.3%−19.2%227,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorPurchase12,000 @ $2.48$30K+4.3% of holding−33.5%+0.2%293,895Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13GILYARD REGINALD HAROLDdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $2.35$94K+57.4% of holding−26.3%+12.0%109,647Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Landriau Gary EofficerPurchase1,300 @ $2.25$3K+1.4% of holding−26.3%+12.0%94,324Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12Landriau Gary EofficerPurchase9,446 @ $2.47$23K+11.3% of holding−27.0%+10.0%93,024Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12ALLEN KATHLEENdirectorGift77,24334,483Form 4
2026-06-12ALLEN KATHLEENdirectorGift77,243114,413Form 4
2026-05-13Lieb Richard JdirectorAward / grant34,483141,099Form 4
2026-05-13GILYARD REGINALD HAROLDdirectorAward / grant43,103270,881Form 4
2026-05-13Whyte Gregory J.directorAward / grant34,483139,896Form 4
2026-05-13ALLEN KATHLEENdirectorAward / grant34,483111,726Form 4
2026-03-12MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorAward / grant217,573744,147Form 4
2026-03-12Day Christopher HavilandofficerAward / grant99,372269,199Form 4
2026-03-12Hughes Paul CofficerAward / grant73,222192,565Form 4
2026-03-12Brandon GavinofficerAward / grant115,063343,618Form 4
2026-03-12Schmidt Revea LynnofficerAward / grant62,762174,270Form 4
2026-03-07MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorWithheld for tax10,197526,574Form 4
2026-03-07Brandon GavinofficerWithheld for tax3,200228,555Form 4
2026-03-07Hughes Paul CofficerWithheld for tax2,679119,343Form 4
2026-03-07Day Christopher HavilandofficerWithheld for tax2,327169,827Form 4
2026-03-07Schmidt Revea LynnofficerWithheld for tax2,096111,508Form 4
2026-03-03MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorWithheld for tax33,008536,771Form 4
2026-03-03Hughes Paul CofficerWithheld for tax10,721122,022Form 4
2026-03-03Brandon GavinofficerWithheld for tax10,329231,755Form 4
2026-03-03Day Christopher HavilandofficerWithheld for tax7,871172,154Form 4
2026-03-03Schmidt Revea LynnofficerWithheld for tax6,793113,604Form 4
2026-02-26MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorWithheld for tax23,245569,779Form 4
2026-02-26Brandon GavinofficerWithheld for tax8,055242,084Form 4
2026-02-26Hughes Paul CofficerWithheld for tax6,903132,743Form 4
2026-02-26Day Christopher HavilandofficerWithheld for tax6,375180,025Form 4
2026-02-26Schmidt Revea LynnofficerWithheld for tax4,782120,397Form 4
2026-01-15MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorWithheld for tax21,923593,024Form 4
2026-01-15Brandon GavinofficerWithheld for tax4,763250,139Form 4
2026-01-15Hughes Paul CofficerWithheld for tax3,819139,646Form 4
2026-01-15Day Christopher HavilandofficerWithheld for tax3,464186,400Form 4
2026-01-15Schmidt Revea LynnofficerWithheld for tax867125,179Form 4
2026-01-15MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorAward / grant52,513614,947Form 4
2026-01-15Brandon GavinofficerAward / grant15,042254,902Form 4
2026-01-15Hughes Paul CofficerAward / grant8,204143,465Form 4
2026-01-15Day Christopher HavilandofficerAward / grant10,938189,864Form 4
2026-01-15Schmidt Revea LynnofficerAward / grant2,734126,046Form 4
2025-10-15Day Christopher HavilandofficerCode L347178,926Form 4
2025-07-15Day Christopher HavilandofficerCode L368178,578Form 4
2025-05-15Landriau Gary EofficerAward / grant42,918135,849Form 4
2025-05-15MCDOWELL PAUL HdirectorAward / grant274,678562,434Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.