Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.15 · now $34.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONIT has typically landed between $28.57 and $41.23 — a range of −16.3% to +20.7% from the issuance price $34.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
552 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ONIT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.93 (+2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.4–$37.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.57–$41.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-28 | −26.5% | −28.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | −26.4% | −26.4% | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-23 | −26.3% | −26.3% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-07 | +41.0% | +0.0% | +42.6% |
| 2025-04-11 | +36.6% | +0.0% | +37.3% |
| 2025-04-10 | +35.5% | −1.3% | +35.5% |
552 overlapping windows · 2024-06-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Wessel Aulene | officer | Option exercise | 1,844 | 4,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Wessel Aulene | officer | Disposition | 1,844 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Wessel Aulene | officer | Option exercise | 1,844 | 1,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Wessel Aulene | officer | Disposition | 1,844 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Wessel Aulene | officer | Option exercise | 1,844 | 1,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,071 | 69,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 12,887 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 12,887 | 74,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 12,887 | 74,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | STEIN KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 6,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Welborn Robert S. | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 3,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Merkle Claudia J | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 12,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | MORRIS DAWN C | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 3,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Bowers Alan J | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 42,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Busquet Jacques J | director | Award / grant | 3,627 | 51,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Messina Glen A. | director | Withheld for tax | 30,710 | 442,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Messina Glen A. | director | Withheld for tax | 9,198 | 456,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,991 | 59,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | ZELENY DENNIS | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,606 | 36,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Anderson Scott William | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,606 | 50,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wade Aaron D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,977 | 19,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Samarias Joseph J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,303 | 26,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,495 | 61,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Evans Jenna D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,485 | 6,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Anderson Scott William | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,380 | 52,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | ZELENY DENNIS | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,380 | 38,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wade Aaron D | officer | Withheld for tax | 892 | 19,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Samarias Joseph J | officer | Withheld for tax | 690 | 27,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Evans Jenna D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 445 | 6,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Peach James Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 2,479 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wade Aaron D | officer | Option exercise | 5,852 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wade Aaron D | officer | Option exercise | 1,753 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Anderson Scott William | officer | Option exercise | 11,706 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Anderson Scott William | officer | Option exercise | 3,506 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 12,683 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | O'Neil Sean Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 3,799 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Samarias Joseph J | officer | Option exercise | 5,852 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Samarias Joseph J | officer | Option exercise | 1,753 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | ZELENY DENNIS | officer | Option exercise | 11,706 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | ZELENY DENNIS | officer | Option exercise | 3,506 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.