Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.20 · now $7.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONDS has typically landed between $4.50 and $12.08 — a range of −37.4% to +67.7% from the issuance price $7.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,520 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ONDS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.96 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.57–$8.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.5–$12.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,520 windows spanning 2018-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-06-06 | −79.2% | −79.2% | +8.3% |
| 2025-02-11 | −67.8% | −67.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-10 | −66.8% | −66.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-25 | +298.8% | +0.0% | +298.8% |
| 2023-10-26 | +294.3% | +0.0% | +294.3% |
| 2023-10-27 | +263.6% | +0.0% | +269.0% |
1,520 overlapping windows · 2018-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−3.9%
n=8
Feb
25%
−10.5%
n=8
Mar
25%
−10.3%
n=8
Apr
29%
−6.2%
n=7
May
43%
+8.8%
n=7
Jun
13%
−5.8%
n=8
Jul
50%
+17.6%
n=8
Aug
50%
+21.0%
n=8
Sep
50%
+0.7%
n=8
Oct
17%
−8.9%
n=6
Nov
57%
+30.7%
n=7
Dec
38%
+19.0%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $8.96 | $67K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 261,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Brock Eric A | director | Sale | 2,378,245 @ $13.43 | $31.9M | −39.9% of holding | −43.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,583,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $9.50 | $71K | −2.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $9.83 | $98K | −3.3% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 295,504 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Brock Eric A | director | Sale | 475,000 @ $9.71 | $4.6M | −24.5% of holding | +7.0% | −30.6% | 1,461,255 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 8,004 @ $9.48 | $76K | −4.1% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 188,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 7,060 @ $9.48 | $67K | −3.9% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 175,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 6,985 @ $9.48 | $66K | −3.2% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 211,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 6,581 @ $9.48 | $62K | −3.0% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 214,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 6,581 @ $9.48 | $62K | −3.2% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 201,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 6,143 @ $9.48 | $58K | −3.0% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 197,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 5,918 @ $9.48 | $56K | −2.5% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 227,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 5,726 @ $9.48 | $54K | −2.3% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 239,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 5,726 @ $9.48 | $54K | −2.5% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 225,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 5,077 @ $9.48 | $48K | −2.3% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 212,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 4,733 @ $9.48 | $45K | −1.8% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 257,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 4,733 @ $9.48 | $45K | −1.9% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 242,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Sale | 4,526 @ $9.48 | $43K | −35.5% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 8,224 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 947 @ $9.48 | $9K | −0.4% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 217,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 824 @ $9.48 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 242,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 681 @ $9.48 | $6K | −0.3% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 260,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 525 @ $9.48 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 215,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 457 @ $9.48 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 240,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 378 @ $9.48 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +30.6% | −24.9% | 258,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Stern Ron | director | Sale | 850,000 @ $7.91 | $6.7M | −100.0% of holding | +1.2% | +51.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-17 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 8,673 @ $1.69 | $15K | −5.1% of holding | +37.6% | +404.3% | 161,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 7,567 @ $1.69 | $13K | −4.0% of holding | +37.6% | +404.3% | 182,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 8,842 @ $0.68 | $6K | −5.6% of holding | +23.7% | +918.1% | 149,295 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-21 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 7,717 @ $0.68 | $5K | −4.4% of holding | +23.7% | +918.1% | 169,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-19 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 15,757 @ $1.29 | $20K | −12.4% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 110,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 13,789 @ $1.29 | $18K | −9.7% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 128,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Sale | 13,214 @ $1.29 | $17K | −8.8% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 137,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 11,816 @ $1.29 | $15K | −8.7% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 124,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Sale | 11,517 @ $1.29 | $15K | −6.9% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 156,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Seidl Randy | director | Sale | 9,543 @ $1.29 | $12K | −5.8% of holding | +50.8% | +13.1% | 154,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,988 | 34,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Huston Robert Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,301 | 15,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 3,356 | 267,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 3,345 | 243,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,460 | 269,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 1,345 | 244,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Huston Robert Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 8,334 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 246,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 245,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 19,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 39,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 270,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 271,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Huston Robert Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 8,334 | 19,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 19,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seidl Randy | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 19,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seidl Randy | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 304,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seidl Randy | director | Option exercise | 2,817 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seidl Randy | director | Option exercise | 6,482 | 301,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brock Eric A | director | Option exercise | 4,500,000 | 5,961,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brock Eric A | director | Option exercise | 4,500,000 | 9,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Award / grant | 25,925 | 25,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Seidl Randy | director | Award / grant | 25,925 | 25,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Award / grant | 25,925 | 25,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 10,630 | 236,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 9,256 | 227,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 7,307 | 268,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 6,087 | 256,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,038 | 27,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Huston Robert Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,745 | 11,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Huston Robert Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,735 | 5,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 1,337 | 238,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SOOD JASPREET K | director | Withheld for tax | 1,331 | 239,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 882 | 270,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Withheld for tax | 876 | 272,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | LAIRD NEIL J | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 62,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.