Issued 2026-09-16 at $348.08 · now $348.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONC has typically landed between $277.11 and $433.21 — a range of −20.4% to +24.5% from the issuance price $348.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,649 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-02-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($348.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ONC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $348.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $348.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $347.4 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $311.4–$383.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $277.11–$433.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,649 windows spanning 2016-02-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-09-28 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +1.7% |
| 2022-04-07 | −37.2% | −37.2% | +0.0% |
| 2018-10-01 | −36.8% | −38.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-06-15 | +91.4% | +0.0% | +91.4% |
| 2017-06-09 | +89.9% | +0.0% | +89.9% |
| 2017-06-12 | +86.8% | +0.0% | +89.5% |
2,649 overlapping windows · 2016-02-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+8.4%
n=10
Feb
60%
+2.8%
n=10
Mar
36%
−2.9%
n=11
Apr
36%
+1.9%
n=11
May
36%
−2.0%
n=11
Jun
45%
+1.0%
n=11
Jul
82%
+14.4%
n=11
Aug
64%
+4.4%
n=11
Sep
55%
+6.0%
n=11
Oct
50%
−0.5%
n=10
Nov
60%
+6.4%
n=10
Dec
30%
−4.4%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 10,688 @ $349.28 | $3.7M | −45.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 7,492 @ $348.31 | $2.6M | −24.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 6,569 @ $350.27 | $2.3M | −51.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 6,278 @ $351.25 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 2,841 @ $346.16 | $983K | −46.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 1,721 @ $348.01 | $599K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 1,517 @ $347.39 | $527K | −46.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Sale | 1,181 @ $345.38 | $408K | −16.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Ball Titus B. | officer | Sale | 132 @ $355.86 | $47K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Wu Xiaobin | officer | Sale | 280 @ $380.00 | $106K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 20,899 @ $358.41 | $7.5M | −59.7% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,102 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 15,396 @ $357.63 | $5.5M | −30.5% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 14,102 @ $359.12 | $5.1M | −100.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 2,515 @ $356.43 | $896K | −4.8% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,397 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 1,980 @ $354.71 | $702K | −3.6% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,912 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 14,569 @ $361.47 | $5.3M | −14.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 13,695 @ $359.32 | $4.9M | −10.9% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 13,403 @ $363.45 | $4.9M | −17.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 11,568 @ $362.34 | $4.2M | −12.9% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 8,081 @ $360.33 | $2.9M | −7.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 5,211 @ $364.31 | $1.9M | −8.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 3,176 @ $365.26 | $1.2M | −5.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Sale | 2,666 @ $360.00 | $960K | −100.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $366.31 | $440K | −2.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 4 @ $367.00 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 45,044 @ $358.70 | $16.2M | −23.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 21,254 @ $359.50 | $7.6M | −14.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 15,869 @ $357.67 | $5.7M | −7.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 12,418 @ $356.62 | $4.4M | −5.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 6,717 @ $354.78 | $2.4M | −2.9% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,540 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 3,680 @ $360.63 | $1.3M | −2.8% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 3,673 @ $353.32 | $1.3M | −1.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,257 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 3,476 @ $355.66 | $1.2M | −1.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 2,813 @ $351.80 | $990K | −1.2% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 67 @ $350.00 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Rosenberg Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $312.71 | $362K | −100.0% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Sale | 1,044 @ $323.69 | $338K | −100.0% of holding | +10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Sale | 1,669 @ $325.00 | $542K | −100.0% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 20,029 @ $316.91 | $6.3M | −43.5% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 15,807 @ $319.29 | $5.0M | −87.1% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 15,379 @ $316.26 | $4.9M | −25.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 7,842 @ $318.41 | $2.5M | −30.2% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 2,340 @ $320.06 | $749K | −100.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 15,499 @ $312.29 | $4.8M | −45.6% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 14,326 @ $312.96 | $4.5M | −77.5% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 6,273 @ $310.75 | $1.9M | −68.3% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 5,146 @ $310.08 | $1.6M | −35.9% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 2,907 @ $311.80 | $906K | −100.0% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 1,850 @ $313.91 | $581K | −44.4% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 1,512 @ $315.26 | $477K | −65.3% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 803 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 523 @ $316.14 | $165K | −65.1% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 280 @ $318.30 | $89K | −100.0% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 35,829 @ $312.17 | $11.2M | −69.5% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,706 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 14,915 @ $313.19 | $4.7M | −95.0% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 791 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 5,543 @ $311.42 | $1.7M | −9.7% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 4,833 @ $310.37 | $1.5M | −7.8% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,078 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 1,440 @ $305.20 | $439K | −2.2% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,188 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 740 @ $314.32 | $233K | −93.6% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 680 @ $309.05 | $210K | −1.1% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,911 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Sale | 597 @ $306.96 | $183K | −0.9% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,591 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Option exercise | 31,027 | 31,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang Xiaodong | director | Option exercise | 403,351 | 1,210,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 1,058 | 1,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 812 | 812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 796 | 2,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 10,348 | 88,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 10,556 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 13,754 | 57,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 665 | 1,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 514 | 514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 490 | 1,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 6,370 | 98,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 8,645 | 71,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 6,682 | 10,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 33,990 | 33,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 441,870 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 64,628 | 64,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 840,164 | 441,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 96,501 | 96,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 70,096 | 166,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 911,248 | 1,282,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 1,254,513 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 76,677 | 112,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 35,605 | 35,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 4,275 | 116,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 996,801 | 9 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 462,865 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 55,575 | 1,254,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 36,318 | 133,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 97,282 | 97,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 1,264,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 472,134 | 462,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 48,520 | 48,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 630,760 | 1,264,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 11,698 | 11,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | OYLER JOHN | director | Option exercise | 152,074 | 1,895,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 266 | 468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 202 | 202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 196 | 664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lee Chan Henry | officer | Option exercise | 2,548 | 105,300 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.