ONBOld National BancorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.31 · now $25.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ONB has typically landed between $22.49 and $29.04 — a range of −11.1% to +14.7% from the issuance price $25.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ONB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.49worst · -11.1%$29.04best · +14.7%
  • now $25.31 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.44 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.98–$26.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.49–$29.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−32.2%−32.2%+0.0%
2009-02-05−30.8%−30.8%+10.6%
2009-02-09−30.7%−37.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+47.5%+0.0%+47.5%
2009-03-05+47.4%−1.5%+47.4%
2008-08-20+47.1%−3.0%+47.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
35%
+0.3%
n=20
May
55%
−1.1%
n=20
Jun
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
45%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.8%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$192026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $311K — ALAHMAR CHADY M.2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $533K — Chulos Nicholas J2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $50.0M — Otto Bremer Trust2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $100K — Kitchell Ryan C2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $800K — Sandgren James A2026-02-03: 2 insider sales, $751K — Chulos Nicholas J …2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $150K — Kitchell Ryan C2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $150K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $51.7M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $844K↑ buys↓ salesofficer ALAHMAR CHADY M. — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Chulos Nicholas J — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Otto Bremer Trust — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kitchell Ryan C — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sandgren James A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Chulos Nicholas J — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Chulos Nicholas J — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kitchell Ryan C — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerSale11,771 @ $26.41$311K−15.6% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open63,531Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Chulos Nicholas JofficerSale20,000 @ $26.66$533K−27.2% of holding−7.5%not yet — horizon still open53,544Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Otto Bremer TrusttenPercentOwnerSale1,926,782 @ $25.95$50.0M−4.5% of holding−4.7%−6.3%41,210,548Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Kitchell Ryan CdirectorSale4,003 @ $25.01$100K−19.7% of holding−9.3%−8.0%16,348Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sandgren James AofficerSale31,230 @ $25.61$800K−100.0% of holding−10.5%−7.4%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03Chulos Nicholas JofficerSale15,000 @ $25.05$376K−42.3% of holding−8.1%−4.7%20,439Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03Chulos Nicholas JofficerSale15,000 @ $25.05$376K−42.3% of holding−8.1%−4.7%20,438Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15Kitchell Ryan CdirectorSale6,508 @ $23.08$150K−24.2% of holding−0.7%−1.1%20,351Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16Sander Mark GofficerSale60,343 @ $22.11$1.3M−18.2% of holding−8.1%−18.7%271,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-15Sander Mark GofficerSale7,000 @ $22.45$157K−2.1% of holding−9.0%−20.1%332,023Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-11Kitchell Ryan CdirectorSale12,477 @ $24.04$300K−36.8% of holding−6.9%−15.6%21,458Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2023-10-31RUDNICK ELLEN AdirectorPurchase9 @ $13.66$123+0.0% of holding+0.6%+4.9%62,698Form 4 · filed 415 days after the trade
2023-07-26RUDNICK ELLEN AdirectorPurchase8 @ $17.23$138+0.0% of holding−6.8%−7.0%62,689Form 4 · filed 512 days after the trade
2023-06-09RUDNICK ELLEN AdirectorPurchase47 @ $13.64$641+0.1% of holding+3.7%+12.7%62,681Form 4 · filed 559 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Moran John VofficerWithheld for tax2,036120,728Form 4
2026-08-01BURKE TIMOTHY M JRofficerWithheld for tax2,33554,084Form 4
2026-07-02Salmon TomdirectorAward / grant34951,756Form 4
2026-06-30ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerOther acquisition7375,302Form 4
2026-06-30Evernham Scott JofficerOther acquisition37149,303Form 4
2026-06-30Ryan James C IIIdirectorOther acquisition24958,389Form 4
2026-04-06Salmon TomdirectorAward / grant34251,109Form 4
2026-04-01Putnam Angela LofficerWithheld for tax4,83657,422Form 4
2026-04-01Putnam Angela LofficerAward / grant7,23464,656Form 4
2026-03-31ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerOther acquisition8675,229Form 4
2026-03-31Evernham Scott JofficerOther acquisition43149,263Form 4
2026-03-31Ryan James C IIIdirectorOther acquisition29958,365Form 4
2026-03-15Ryan James C IIIdirectorWithheld for tax88,601958,336Form 4
2026-03-15Sandgren James AofficerWithheld for tax16,846331,002Form 4
2026-03-15ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerWithheld for tax9,70975,143Form 4
2026-03-15Vanzo Kendra LofficerWithheld for tax8,846146,059Form 4
2026-03-15TISCHLER BRENT RofficerWithheld for tax8,80751,915Form 4
2026-03-15Evernham Scott JofficerWithheld for tax6,800149,220Form 4
2026-03-15Moran John VofficerWithheld for tax6,144122,764Form 4
2026-03-15Chulos Nicholas JofficerWithheld for tax4,95873,544Form 4
2026-03-15Chulos Nicholas JofficerAward / grant13,91077,062Form 4
2026-03-15TISCHLER BRENT RofficerAward / grant17,31058,929Form 4
2026-03-15Evernham Scott JofficerAward / grant13,910154,576Form 4
2026-03-15ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerAward / grant18,13382,975Form 4
2026-03-15Vanzo Kendra LofficerAward / grant18,547152,984Form 4
2026-03-15Sandgren James AofficerAward / grant35,419344,179Form 4
2026-03-15Moran John VofficerAward / grant12,363127,629Form 4
2026-03-15Ryan James C IIIdirectorAward / grant185,6571,027,704Form 4
2026-03-01Ryan James C IIIdirectorWithheld for tax29,518775,253Form 4
2026-03-01Sandgren James AofficerWithheld for tax8,250293,976Form 4
2026-03-01Moran John VofficerWithheld for tax6,48095,343Form 4
2026-03-01Evernham Scott JofficerWithheld for tax5,618129,320Form 4
2026-03-01Chulos Nicholas JofficerWithheld for tax5,22052,812Form 4
2026-03-01ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerWithheld for tax4,88657,015Form 4
2026-03-01Vanzo Kendra LofficerWithheld for tax4,697124,982Form 4
2026-03-01TISCHLER BRENT RofficerWithheld for tax4,42234,125Form 4
2026-03-01GOLDFEDER CARRIE SofficerWithheld for tax3,71338,977Form 4
2026-03-01Vanzo Kendra LofficerAward / grant9,455134,437Form 4
2026-03-01Moran John VofficerAward / grant19,923115,266Form 4
2026-03-01ALAHMAR CHADY M.officerAward / grant7,82764,842Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.