ONON Semiconductor CorporationTechnology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.60 · now $66.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ON has typically landed between $53.60 and $83.14 — a range of −19.5% to +24.8% from the issuance price $66.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.6worst · -19.5%$83.14best · +24.8%
  • now $66.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.97 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.62–$73.32
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.6–$83.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−60.0%−60.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−49.7%−59.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−47.5%−59.0%+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-30+77.6%+0.0%+77.6%
2026-04-07+65.8%+0.0%+65.8%
2026-04-01+65.6%−0.0%+65.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$33.8B
market cap
$1.41
EPS (TTM)
61.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$6.0B
'20'25
Net income$121M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr1.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $66.60$10.83$160.31
  • DCF (intrinsic)$21.14
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$48.23
  • Analyst target · range $75.00–$150.00$125.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$66.60

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+3.1%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.5%
n=19
Apr
37%
+5.3%
n=19
May
79%
+6.6%
n=19
Jun
37%
−2.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−2.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.8%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.9%
n=18
Dec
78%
+6.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$134$452026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Thad Trent2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $2.8M — Thad Trent2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Thad Trent2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $359K — GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR2026-02-17: 2 insider sales, $3.5M — KEETON SIMON …2026-02-12: 6 insider sales, $5.7M — Thad Trent, El-Khoury Hassane …2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — KEETON SIMON2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Thad Trent2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $768K — El-Khoury Hassane2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $768K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $9.2M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $359K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $8.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer KEETON SIMON — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KEETON SIMON — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector El-Khoury Hassane — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector El-Khoury Hassane — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same dayofficer KEETON SIMON — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Thad Trent — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector El-Khoury Hassane — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-24Thad TrentdirectorSale30,000 @ $100.00$3.0M−10.0% of holding+23.9%not yet — horizon still open271,194Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-23Thad TrentdirectorSale30,000 @ $93.00$2.8M−9.1% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open301,194Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16Thad TrentdirectorSale30,000 @ $80.00$2.4M−8.3% of holding+36.2%not yet — horizon still open331,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerSale6,114 @ $58.67$359K−3.4% of holding+17.9%+6.9%173,943Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-17KEETON SIMONofficerSale44,263 @ $71.77$3.2M−18.2% of holding−12.8%−2.6%198,995Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17KEETON SIMONofficerSale4,597 @ $71.56$329K−1.9% of holding−12.8%−2.6%243,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Thad TrentdirectorSale49,500 @ $70.87$3.5M−12.7% of holding−13.4%+2.5%339,460Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12El-Khoury HassanedirectorSale19,900 @ $73.02$1.5M−1.9% of holding−13.4%+2.5%1,015,610Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Thad TrentdirectorSale7,000 @ $72.88$510K−1.8% of holding−13.4%+2.5%388,960Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Thad TrentdirectorSale2,200 @ $73.39$161K−0.6% of holding−13.4%+2.5%395,960Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Thad TrentdirectorSale1,300 @ $71.70$93K−0.3% of holding−13.4%+2.5%398,160Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12El-Khoury HassanedirectorSale100 @ $73.56$7K−0.0% of holding−13.4%+2.5%1,035,510Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04KEETON SIMONofficerSale21,000 @ $55.72$1.2M−8.3% of holding+11.3%+112.0%232,843Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03Thad TrentdirectorSale20,000 @ $55.05$1.1M−5.0% of holding+1.8%+96.7%379,448Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13El-Khoury HassanedirectorSale15,000 @ $51.22$768K−1.5% of holding−8.9%+29.9%977,814Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12Campbell AlandirectorSale5,371 @ $51.16$275K−6.0% of holding+7.9%−9.2%84,689Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12Campbell AlandirectorSale10,000 @ $43.23$432K−10.5% of holding−12.7%−4.0%85,006Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17KEETON SIMONofficerSale28,000 @ $68.56$1.9M−12.1% of holding−18.0%−21.8%203,182Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerSale21,082 @ $67.64$1.4M−18.2% of holding−18.0%−21.8%94,774Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17El-Khoury HassanedirectorSale1,500 @ $70.00$105K−0.2% of holding−18.0%−21.8%836,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02MASCARENAS PAUL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant11657,590Form 4
2026-05-26GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerWithheld for tax470173,588Form 4
2026-05-14KIDDOO BRUCE EdirectorAward / grant1,98619,216Form 4
2026-05-14CARTER SUSAN KdirectorAward / grant1,98625,638Form 4
2026-05-14MASCARENAS PAUL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant1,98657,474Form 4
2026-05-14WATERS GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant1,98624,524Form 4
2026-05-14Deitrich ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,98626,060Form 4
2026-05-14Yan Christine YdirectorAward / grant1,98648,655Form 4
2026-04-03MASCARENAS PAUL ANTHONYdirectorAward / grant16855,488Form 4
2026-02-21El-Khoury HassanedirectorWithheld for tax36,8021,054,123Form 4
2026-02-21Thad TrentdirectorWithheld for tax10,383361,079Form 4
2026-02-21GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerWithheld for tax9,583180,057Form 4
2026-02-21KEETON SIMONofficerWithheld for tax7,788214,123Form 4
2026-02-20Thad TrentdirectorWithheld for tax4,173371,462Form 4
2026-02-20KEETON SIMONofficerWithheld for tax3,130221,911Form 4
2026-02-20GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerWithheld for tax1,455189,640Form 4
2026-02-20KEETON SIMONofficerAward / grant26,046225,041Form 4
2026-02-20El-Khoury HassanedirectorAward / grant75,3151,090,925Form 4
2026-02-20Thad TrentdirectorAward / grant36,175375,635Form 4
2026-02-20GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerAward / grant31,834191,095Form 4
2026-02-12KIDDOO BRUCE EdirectorGift3,57017,230Form 4
2026-02-10El-Khoury HassanedirectorWithheld for tax20,7621,035,610Form 4
2026-02-10Thad TrentdirectorWithheld for tax6,709399,460Form 4
2026-02-10GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerWithheld for tax6,191159,261Form 4
2026-02-10KEETON SIMONofficerWithheld for tax5,032247,855Form 4
2026-02-06El-Khoury HassanedirectorWithheld for tax34,4601,056,372Form 4
2026-02-06Thad TrentdirectorWithheld for tax12,270406,169Form 4
2026-02-06KEETON SIMONofficerWithheld for tax9,232252,887Form 4
2026-02-06GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerWithheld for tax6,041165,452Form 4
2026-02-05GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerAward / grant401171,493Form 4
2026-02-05Thad TrentdirectorAward / grant31,050410,627Form 4
2026-02-05El-Khoury HassanedirectorAward / grant90,9661,069,026Form 4
2026-02-05El-Khoury HassanedirectorAward / grant12,2021,081,228Form 4
2026-02-05El-Khoury HassanedirectorAward / grant9,6041,090,832Form 4
2026-02-05Thad TrentdirectorAward / grant4,371414,998Form 4
2026-02-05Thad TrentdirectorAward / grant3,441418,439Form 4
2026-02-05KEETON SIMONofficerAward / grant23,287256,259Form 4
2026-02-05KEETON SIMONofficerAward / grant3,279259,538Form 4
2026-02-05KEETON SIMONofficerAward / grant2,581262,119Form 4
2026-02-05GOPALSWAMY SUDHIRofficerAward / grant23,287167,272Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-03-072025-02-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.