Issued 2026-09-25 at $20.08 · now $20.08 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, OMER has typically landed between $13.10 and $35.66 — a range of −34.8% to +77.6% from the issuance price $20.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,239 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-10-08 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($20.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OMER has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $20.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.01 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.11–$23.91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.1–$35.66
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-09-17 | −64.5% | −64.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | −63.0% | −63.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-22 | −61.9% | −61.9% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-25 | +190.0% | −3.6% | +190.0% |
| 2024-11-01 | +186.3% | +0.0% | +197.8% |
| 2024-10-30 | +183.2% | −4.3% | +187.9% |
4,239 overlapping windows · 2009-10-08 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of OMS906 in Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.95 | $210K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.95 | $210K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.54 | $464K | −99.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.65 | $466K | −99.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.02 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $18.88 | $94K | −50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $18.53 | $93K | −100.0% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 906 @ $19.10 | $17K | −100.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.95 | $190K | −100.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.45 | $277K | −30.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $16.95 | $85K | −100.0% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $11.61 | $87K | −17.6% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,067 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $12.31 | $369K | −100.0% of holding | −7.5% | −35.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Borges David J. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $12.72 | $382K | −100.0% of holding | −11.9% | −28.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 4,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 906 | 906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 906 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,906 | 5,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 4,094 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,906 | 9,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 4,094 | 20,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 50,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 42,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Borges David J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Schocken Joseph L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Cancelmo Peter B | officer | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Borges David J. | officer | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Demopulos Gregory A MD | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Perkinson Diana T. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hood Leroy E. MD PhD | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HANISH ARNOLD C | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Demopulos Peter A MD | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bumol Thomas F. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Shah Rajiv | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 42,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cable Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.