Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.76 · now $19.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OMDA has typically landed between $14.46 and $25.38 — a range of −26.8% to +28.4% from the issuance price $19.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
300 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OMDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.2 (+7.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.53–$23.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.46–$25.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 300 windows spanning 2025-06-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-03 | −37.2% | −37.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +2.5% |
| 2025-10-28 | −32.0% | −32.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-16 | +38.5% | +0.0% | +38.7% |
| 2026-06-17 | +38.5% | +0.0% | +38.5% |
| 2026-06-12 | +38.4% | −0.2% | +38.4% |
300 overlapping windows · 2025-06-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−5.3%
n=1
Feb
0%
−17.9%
n=1
Mar
100%
+2.4%
n=1
Apr
100%
+16.0%
n=1
May
100%
+23.3%
n=1
Jun
100%
+22.1%
n=1
Jul
0%
−6.9%
n=2
Aug
100%
+29.5%
n=2
Sep
0%
−13.1%
n=2
Oct
100%
+11.1%
n=1
Nov
0%
−23.8%
n=1
Dec
0%
−15.8%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 13,560 @ $21.80 | $296K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 383,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 6,200 @ $21.80 | $135K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 174,506 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 3,636 @ $21.78 | $79K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 295,713 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $22.59 | $32K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 382,594 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $22.52 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 173,906 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 400 @ $22.53 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 295,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 644 @ $21.73 | $14K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 7,344 @ $23.12 | $170K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 426,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 5,600 @ $24.27 | $136K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 420,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 4,933 @ $23.13 | $114K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 415,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 3,695 @ $24.27 | $90K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 1,108 @ $25.00 | $28K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 8,866 @ $25.02 | $222K | −2.8% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 1,607 @ $25.01 | $40K | −0.9% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 15,235 @ $25.03 | $381K | −7.5% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 12,942 @ $24.81 | $321K | −3.0% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 1,042 @ $25.00 | $26K | −6.3% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 4,314 @ $22.80 | $98K | −1.0% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 4,314 @ $20.90 | $90K | −1.0% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 12,944 @ $20.40 | $264K | −3.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 11,750 @ $24.01 | $282K | −5.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $24.00 | $10K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 5,200 @ $24.00 | $125K | −2.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 1,041 @ $24.00 | $25K | −6.3% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $24.01 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 12,337 @ $23.09 | $285K | −6.2% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 23,263 @ $22.76 | $530K | −11.1% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 12,944 @ $22.70 | $294K | −3.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 12,942 @ $22.67 | $293K | −3.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 637 @ $23.00 | $15K | −4.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 405 @ $22.00 | $9K | −2.6% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $22.00 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 17,950 @ $21.07 | $378K | −13.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,409 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 2,083 @ $21.00 | $44K | −70.8% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 33,000 @ $19.89 | $656K | −19.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,359 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 9,844 @ $19.61 | $193K | −2.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 398,917 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 4,314 @ $20.90 | $90K | −1.1% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 394,603 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 2,084 @ $20.00 | $42K | −41.5% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $19.00 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 300 @ $19.00 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $19.01 | $53K | −0.7% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 409,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $19.02 | $49K | −1.5% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 2,083 @ $19.01 | $40K | −29.3% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 17,950 @ $18.13 | $325K | −9.6% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 2,083 @ $18.00 | $37K | −22.7% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 14,960 @ $17.36 | $260K | −3.5% of holding | +39.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 6,800 @ $17.23 | $117K | −3.5% of holding | +36.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Gracey Craig | officer | Sale | 6,894 @ $17.42 | $120K | −42.9% of holding | +36.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 4,589 @ $17.24 | $79K | −1.4% of holding | +36.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 2,829 @ $12.71 | $36K | −0.9% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 1,884 @ $13.94 | $26K | −0.9% of holding | −19.4% | +25.6% | 200,512 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 3,863 @ $14.32 | $55K | −3.2% of holding | −12.9% | +40.6% | 117,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 200 @ $14.88 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | −12.9% | +40.6% | 117,598 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 40,796 @ $15.95 | $651K | −24.4% of holding | −28.6% | +38.0% | 126,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 139,989 @ $15.35 | $2.1M | −39.2% of holding | −31.7% | +38.1% | 217,134 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 90,490 @ $15.99 | $1.4M | −41.7% of holding | −31.7% | +38.1% | 126,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Sale | 5,618 @ $16.13 | $91K | −7.5% of holding | −7.7% | +31.2% | 69,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Sale | 9,266 @ $15.37 | $142K | −6.8% of holding | +3.9% | +3.5% | 126,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Sale | 4,211 @ $15.37 | $65K | −6.8% of holding | +3.9% | +3.5% | 57,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,422 | 397,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,010 | 180,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,843 | 299,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Withheld for tax | 9,885 | 401,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shao Wei-Li | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,180 | 301,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,493 | 182,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,944 | 424,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 4,314 | 433,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 4,314 | 429,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gracey Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 385 | 15,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,944 | 129,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 4,314 | 512,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 4,314 | 106,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,108 | 188,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,108 | 233,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,607 | 188,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,607 | 234,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,942 | 424,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 13,499 | 200,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,042 | 201,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Gracey Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,042 | 16,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 694 | 202,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,942 | 517,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 694 | 20,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 13,499 | 236,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Gracey Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,042 | 32,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,042 | 18,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 5,545 | 417,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 3,083 | 420,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 3,083 | 530,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 5,545 | 110,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,944 | 424,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Duffy Sean P. | director | Option exercise | 12,944 | 142,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 12,150 | 199,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 12,150 | 249,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 5,800 | 193,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gracey Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,041 | 16,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 5,800 | 261,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gracey Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,041 | 33,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Cook Steven L. | officer | Option exercise | 10,601 | 197,810 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.