OLN · TickerCove

OLNOlin Corporationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.02 · now $17.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OLN has typically landed between $13.78 and $20.04 — a range of −19.0% to +17.7% from the issuance price $17.02.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.02 · 1% of range

$16.88 low$29.93 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−19.0%worst (p90)+17.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

1 buys · 3 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.02 (+0.0%)
typical $16.81 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $15.33–$18.29
90% range $13.78–$20.04

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−48.0%	−51.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−46.8%	−46.8%	+8.6%
2020-02-24	−45.7%	−50.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+68.5%	+0.0%	+68.5%
2009-03-09	+63.5%	+0.0%	+68.2%
2009-03-06	+63.4%	−2.3%	+64.3%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

39%

−0.8%

n=18

Feb

58%

+1.9%

n=19

Mar

74%

+6.7%

n=19

Apr

42%

+1.2%

n=19

May

42%

−0.5%

n=19

Jun

37%

−3.2%

n=19

Jul

47%

+1.6%

n=19

Aug

58%

+0.3%

n=19

Sep

42%

−3.3%

n=19

Oct

39%

+0.4%

n=18

Nov

72%

+5.8%

n=18

Dec

50%

+0.8%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-25	Carter Deon	officer	Sale	6,500 @ $23.73	$154K	−94.8% of holding	+26.8%	−39.0%	357	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-24	Castle Angela M	officer	Sale	2,379 @ $24.25	$58K	−60.9% of holding	+20.5%	−39.9%	1,528	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03	Slater Todd A	officer	Sale	92,250 @ $22.48	$2.1M	−67.6% of holding	+9.4%	−30.2%	44,291	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Sumner R Nichole	officer	Sale	4,750 @ $22.49	$107K	−16.1% of holding	+9.4%	−30.2%	24,771	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26	VERMILLION TERESA M	officer	Sale	4,500 @ $20.86	$94K	−20.7% of holding	+0.7%	+14.8%	17,199	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13	VERMILLION TERESA M	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $21.11	$127K	−25.9% of holding	+22.5%	+16.2%	17,199	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Purchase	20,000 @ $18.70	$374K	ownership Δ n/a	+36.4%	+21.8%	20,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Purchase	7,250 @ $28.06	$203K	ownership Δ n/a	−4.9%	−38.3%	7,250	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-17	Carter Deon	officer	Withheld for tax	609	2,248	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carter Deon	officer	Option exercise	2,500	5,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carter Deon	officer	Option exercise	2,500	2,857	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carter Deon	officer	Option exercise	2,500	2,857	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kohl Florian J	officer	Withheld for tax	492	7,949	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	1,250	2,500	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	1,250	8,441	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	1,250	8,441	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kohl Florian J	officer	Withheld for tax	819	7,191	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	2,500	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	2,500	8,010	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kohl Florian J	officer	Option exercise	2,500	8,010	Form 4
2026-05-01	Darnall Matthew S	director	Award / grant	10,535	42,722	Form 4
2026-05-01	PIGGOTT JULIE A	director	Award / grant	7,023	21,495	Form 4
2026-05-01	Daly Edward	director	Award / grant	7,023	16,672	Form 4
2026-05-01	Weideman William H	director	Award / grant	7,023	53,657	Form 4
2026-05-01	Williams Carol A	director	Award / grant	7,023	58,850	Form 4
2026-05-01	Shipp Earl L	director	Award / grant	7,023	59,191	Form 4
2026-05-01	Babcock Beverley A	director	Award / grant	4,916	38,508	Form 4
2026-05-01	Babcock Beverley A	director	Award / grant	2,107	5,625	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Withheld for tax	1,877	25,829	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	5,206	10,412	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	2,500	7,500	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	5,206	25,206	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	2,500	27,706	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	5,206	25,206	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ehrhardt Marc	officer	Option exercise	2,500	27,706	Form 4
2026-03-18	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Withheld for tax	19,675	100,287	Form 4
2026-03-18	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Option exercise	50,000	100,000	Form 4
2026-03-18	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Option exercise	50,000	119,962	Form 4
2026-03-18	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Option exercise	50,000	119,962	Form 4
2026-02-20	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Withheld for tax	8,811	69,962	Form 4
2026-02-20	Slater Todd A	officer	Withheld for tax	3,850	49,543	Form 4
2026-02-20	FLAUGHER BRETT A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,839	4,674	Form 4
2026-02-20	Carter Deon	officer	Withheld for tax	1,793	6,857	Form 4
2026-02-20	Kohl Florian J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,470	5,510	Form 4
2026-02-20	Castle Angela M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,003	3,907	Form 4
2026-02-20	VERMILLION TERESA M	officer	Withheld for tax	674	18,922	Form 4
2026-02-20	Sumner R Nichole	officer	Withheld for tax	538	26,147	Form 4
2026-02-20	Lane Kenneth Todd	director	Option exercise	36,206	74,411	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2020-05-13	2020-04-07	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2019-01-11	2018-12-17	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2018-11-09	2018-10-02	$1–15K
Benjamin L. Cardin	Senate	sale	2014-11-29	2014-11-17	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i