Issued 2026-09-25 at $8.75 · now $8.75 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, OLMA has typically landed between $5.81 and $13.51 — a range of −33.6% to +54.4% from the issuance price $8.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,445 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($8.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OLMA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $8.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.29 (-5.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.82–$9.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.81–$13.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,445 windows spanning 2020-11-19 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-11 | −66.6% | −66.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | −66.0% | −66.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-15 | −65.2% | −65.6% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-12 | +344.5% | −1.5% | +344.5% |
| 2025-11-13 | +331.7% | +0.0% | +351.3% |
| 2025-11-11 | +303.5% | −3.1% | +303.5% |
1,445 overlapping windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: OP-1250 (Palazestrant) vs. Standard of Care for the Treatment of ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Palazestrant in Combination With Ribociclib for the First-line Treatment of ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+9.1%
n=6
Feb
0%
−14.6%
n=6
Mar
0%
−17.0%
n=6
Apr
33%
+1.0%
n=6
May
50%
+1.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
+17.4%
n=6
Jul
50%
+10.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
−1.0%
n=6
Sep
50%
+8.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
+6.0%
n=5
Nov
40%
+33.2%
n=5
Dec
17%
−21.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.71 | $146K | −1.7% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 702,770 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.58 | $145K | −1.7% of holding | −12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 715,270 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Sale | 24,767 @ $24.25 | $601K | −99.1% of holding | −34.1% | −67.8% | 233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Sale | 233 @ $24.69 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | −34.1% | −67.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.01 | $345K | −100.0% of holding | −32.0% | −67.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.88 | $269K | −1.4% of holding | −11.9% | −67.9% | 727,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Kovacs Shane William Charles | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $28.73 | $2.9M | −41.7% of holding | −21.2% | −68.9% | 139,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 35,003 @ $28.99 | $1.0M | −6.1% of holding | −20.2% | −68.4% | 542,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 14,997 @ $28.60 | $429K | −2.5% of holding | −20.2% | −68.4% | 577,764 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 3,489 @ $29.12 | $102K | −0.5% of holding | −20.2% | −68.4% | 737,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 49,800 @ $27.60 | $1.4M | −8.4% of holding | −13.0% | −69.1% | 542,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Kovacs Shane William Charles | officer | Sale | 3,822 @ $28.01 | $107K | −1.6% of holding | −13.0% | −69.1% | 239,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 200 @ $28.49 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −13.0% | −69.1% | 542,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $28.34 | $283K | −6.5% of holding | −17.4% | −68.1% | 144,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 99,509 @ $27.66 | $2.8M | −95.7% of holding | −10.0% | −65.4% | 4,488 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $28.04 | $2.8M | −64.9% of holding | −11.1% | −67.2% | 53,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 2,881 @ $28.53 | $82K | −0.4% of holding | −11.1% | −67.2% | 741,259 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | CLARK IAN T | director | Sale | 193,056 @ $29.71 | $5.7M | −82.2% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 41,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 57,079 @ $28.03 | $1.6M | −32.8% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 116,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 43,729 @ $30.40 | $1.3M | −7.3% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 557,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | CLARK IAN T | director | Sale | 41,840 @ $30.48 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | CLARK IAN T | director | Sale | 29,904 @ $28.83 | $862K | −11.3% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 234,896 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 12,921 @ $28.93 | $374K | −11.1% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 103,997 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 6,046 @ $31.39 | $190K | −1.1% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 551,881 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 1,225 @ $28.08 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −6.6% | −68.4% | 601,656 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.33 | $83K | −1.3% of holding | +9.4% | +64.4% | 744,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-18 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 3,086 @ $8.32 | $26K | −2.6% of holding | +9.4% | +64.4% | 117,028 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.04 | $80K | −1.3% of holding | +30.4% | +89.1% | 754,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 1,914 @ $8.08 | $15K | −1.6% of holding | +30.4% | +89.1% | 120,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 @ $5.76 | $1.7M | +4.0% of holding | −12.9% | −22.6% | 7,800,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Graham G. Walmsley | director | Sale | 700,761 @ $6.75 | $4.7M | −100.0% of holding | −10.6% | −32.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-17 | Graham G. Walmsley | director | Purchase | 700,761 @ $6.75 | $4.7M | −33.2% of holding | −10.6% | −32.0% | 1,408,875 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Bohen Sean | director | Sale | 55,907 @ $8.66 | $484K | −18.7% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 242,929 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Kovacs Shane William Charles | officer | Sale | 17,950 @ $8.66 | $155K | −3.2% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 543,955 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 14,202 @ $8.66 | $123K | −10.9% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 115,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 13,314 @ $8.66 | $115K | −2.2% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 598,633 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 7,958 @ $8.66 | $69K | −1.0% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 764,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Bohen Sean | director | Sale | 1,267 @ $9.39 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 241,662 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Kovacs Shane William Charles | officer | Sale | 406 @ $9.39 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 543,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 320 @ $9.39 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 115,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $9.39 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 598,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 179 @ $9.39 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −35.0% | −50.0% | 764,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-10 | Bohen Sean | director | Sale | 52,328 @ $9.37 | $490K | −14.9% of holding | −46.6% | −56.4% | 298,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Kovacs Shane William Charles | officer | Sale | 16,803 @ $9.37 | $157K | −2.9% of holding | −46.6% | −56.4% | 561,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Sale | 13,283 @ $9.37 | $124K | −9.3% of holding | −46.6% | −56.4% | 130,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Myles David C. | officer | Sale | 12,452 @ $9.38 | $117K | −2.0% of holding | −46.6% | −56.4% | 611,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 8,256 @ $9.37 | $77K | −1.1% of holding | −46.6% | −56.4% | 772,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-01 | Paradigm Biocapital Advisors LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,870,499 @ $14.91 | $27.9M | −28.4% of holding | −32.1% | −74.6% | 4,720,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-01 | Paradigm Biocapital Advisors LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 529,501 @ $14.91 | $7.9M | −40.3% of holding | −32.1% | −74.6% | 783,118 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-30 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 934 @ $15.55 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −29.9% | −71.9% | 751,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-29 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 4,066 @ $15.58 | $63K | −0.5% of holding | −26.2% | −70.3% | 752,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-11 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.26 | $61K | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | −64.7% | 756,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-28 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.77 | $215K | −2.6% of holding | +45.0% | −53.2% | 761,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-04 | Graham G. Walmsley | director | Sale | 700,000 @ $14.85 | $10.4M | −50.0% of holding | −29.0% | −43.5% | 700,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-04 | Graham G. Walmsley | director | Sale | 475,000 @ $14.85 | $7.1M | −40.1% of holding | −29.0% | −43.5% | 708,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-04 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.33 | $62K | −0.6% of holding | −29.0% | −43.5% | 781,283 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-03 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $10.93 | $55K | −0.6% of holding | −14.1% | −28.3% | 786,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-31 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $9.41 | $141K | −1.9% of holding | +3.1% | −10.4% | 791,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $10.92 | $55K | −0.6% of holding | +24.2% | −2.2% | 806,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-30 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $9.51 | $143K | −1.8% of holding | −9.5% | −0.0% | 811,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
235 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | O'Byrne Jason | officer | Award / grant | 650,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Graham G. Walmsley | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Harmon Cyrus | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horning Sandra | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hrustanovic Gorjan | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Larson Yi | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | RAPPAPORT ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | CLARK IAN T | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Garland J. Scott | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BUTITTA CYNTHIA M | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 2,911 | 2,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 24,150 | 24,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 410,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 435,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Austin Sasha Lu | officer | Award / grant | 11,700 | 16,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Austin Sasha Lu | officer | Award / grant | 29,250 | 29,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Myles David C. | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Myles David C. | officer | Award / grant | 106,250 | 106,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Mitchell Shawnte | officer | Award / grant | 56,250 | 56,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bohen Sean | director | Award / grant | 850,000 | 850,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bohen Sean | director | Award / grant | 275,000 | 275,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Award / grant | 106,250 | 106,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Myles David C. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 592,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Myles David C. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Myles David C. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 592,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Myles David C. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-26 | Bohen Sean | director | Gift | 8,500 | 237,650 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 103,997 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 156,818 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 42,818 | 146,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 7,182 | 153,997 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 7,182 | 206,818 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Zojwalla Naseem | officer | Option exercise | 42,818 | 112,182 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | CLARK IAN T | director | Option exercise | 209,690 | 209,690 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.