OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Discount Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $73.23 · now $73.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OLLI has typically landed between $61.68 and $87.41 — a range of −15.8% to +19.4% from the issuance price $73.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,788 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($73.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OLLI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $73.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$61.68worst · -15.8%$87.41best · +19.4%
  • now $73.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.96 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.13–$77.78
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.68–$87.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,788 windows spanning 2015-07-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−37.1%−37.1%+4.9%
2019-07-31−33.5%−33.5%+0.0%
2021-11-22−33.1%−33.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+69.4%+0.0%+69.4%
2020-03-27+60.8%+0.0%+60.8%
2020-03-26+60.2%+0.0%+60.2%

2,788 overlapping windows · 2015-07-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
73%
+5.9%
n=11
Feb
45%
−0.7%
n=11
Mar
55%
+1.4%
n=11
Apr
73%
+8.8%
n=11
May
55%
+3.8%
n=11
Jun
64%
+5.4%
n=11
Jul
64%
+4.2%
n=11
Aug
25%
−6.0%
n=12
Sep
58%
−0.4%
n=12
Oct
45%
+1.2%
n=11
Nov
73%
+2.8%
n=11
Dec
27%
−6.0%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$138$622026-04-07: 1 insider sale, $319K — SWYGERT JOHN W2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $482K — SWYGERT JOHN W2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $348K — SWYGERT JOHN W2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $126K — SWYGERT JOHN W2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $3K — Ahlman Alissa M2025-10-23: 1 insider sale, $44K — Helm Robert F2025-10-20: 1 insider sale, $223K — Comitale James J2025-10-17: 1 insider sale, $184K — Helm Robert F2025-10-13: 3 insider sales, $1.2M — Kraus Larry …2025-10-06: 3 insider sales, $415K — Kraus Larry …2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $529K — van der Valk Eric2025-09-22: 1 insider sale, $14.2M — SWYGERT JOHN W2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $275K — Comitale James J2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $15.0M2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $2.0M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $3K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $126K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $830K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $319K↑ buys↓ salesdirector SWYGERT JOHN W — Sale on 2026-04-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SWYGERT JOHN W — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SWYGERT JOHN W — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed same daydirector SWYGERT JOHN W — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ahlman Alissa M — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer Helm Robert F — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Comitale James J — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Helm Robert F — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kraus Larry — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector van der Valk Eric — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SWYGERT JOHN W — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Comitale James J — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-07SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale3,330 @ $95.80$319K−6.5% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open48,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale5,231 @ $92.09$482K−9.8% of holding−16.5%not yet — horizon still open48,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale3,898 @ $89.40$348K−6.8% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open53,431Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-09SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale1,126 @ $112.06$126K−2.3% of holding−5.6%−41.7%48,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-23Ahlman Alissa MdirectorSale29 @ $110.26$3K−0.3% of holding+3.8%−40.5%9,012Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-10-23Helm Robert FofficerSale367 @ $120.08$44K−9.2% of holding+4.5%−31.1%3,641Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-20Comitale James JofficerSale1,775 @ $125.75$223K−38.0% of holding+2.3%−32.6%2,898Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-17Helm Robert FofficerSale1,493 @ $122.92$184K−27.1% of holding−1.5%−35.8%4,008Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-13Kraus LarryofficerSale4,534 @ $130.45$591K−55.2% of holding−7.4%−34.5%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13Kraus LarryofficerSale2,933 @ $130.25$382K−44.4% of holding−7.4%−34.5%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-13Kraus LarryofficerSale1,454 @ $130.00$189K−28.3% of holding−7.4%−34.5%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06Kraus LarryofficerSale2,559 @ $131.55$337K−41.0% of holding−2.9%−24.6%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06Kraus LarryofficerSale500 @ $131.02$66K−12.0% of holding−2.9%−24.6%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06Kraus LarryofficerSale100 @ $131.40$13K−2.6% of holding−2.9%−24.6%3,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-29van der Valk EricdirectorSale4,000 @ $132.27$529K−34.0% of holding−8.9%−28.6%7,761Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale107,058 @ $132.87$14.2M−69.0% of holding−9.4%−28.4%48,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Comitale James JofficerSale2,117 @ $130.00$275K−45.8% of holding−3.7%−21.5%2,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13van der Valk EricdirectorSale728 @ $112.85$82K−8.6% of holding+6.4%−15.4%7,761Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09van der Valk EricdirectorSale240 @ $108.78$26K−3.3% of holding−0.4%−3.3%7,033Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-07Helm Robert FofficerSale312 @ $107.17$33K−8.7% of holding−9.1%−19.8%3,273Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-04SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale3,331 @ $114.60$382K−6.5% of holding−14.0%−21.6%48,200Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03Comitale James JofficerSale2,326 @ $113.53$264K−33.5% of holding−10.5%−13.5%4,621Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Comitale James JofficerSale1,716 @ $113.53$195K−27.1% of holding−10.5%−13.5%4,621Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Comitale James JofficerSale1,443 @ $113.53$164K−23.8% of holding−10.5%−13.5%4,621Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03van der Valk EricdirectorSale525 @ $112.94$59K−7.2% of holding−10.5%−13.5%6,793Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01McLain KevinofficerSale4,799 @ $115.56$555K−28.0% of holding−6.6%−8.4%12,336Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Helm Robert FofficerSale1,212 @ $115.74$140K−23.8% of holding−6.6%−8.4%3,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Helm Robert FofficerSale626 @ $115.74$72K−16.1% of holding−6.6%−8.4%3,262Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Helm Robert FofficerSale301 @ $115.74$35K−9.2% of holding−6.6%−8.4%2,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31McLain KevinofficerSale7,822 @ $111.56$873K−38.8% of holding−7.9%−9.4%12,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Comitale James JofficerSale1,717 @ $110.85$190K−29.1% of holding−7.9%−9.4%4,191Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31van der Valk EricdirectorSale610 @ $110.85$68K−8.3% of holding−7.9%−9.4%6,768Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31van der Valk EricdirectorSale543 @ $110.85$60K−6.9% of holding−7.9%−9.4%7,378Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-28SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale5,232 @ $112.51$589K−9.8% of holding−6.6%−3.9%48,200Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-26SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale3,899 @ $107.89$421K−6.5% of holding+2.4%+7.2%56,059Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-26SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorSale2,627 @ $107.85$283K−4.7% of holding+2.4%+7.2%53,432Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-24Fisch RobertdirectorSale6,250 @ $108.08$676K−22.0% of holding+9.2%+5.4%22,159Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24Helm Robert FofficerSale2,145 @ $108.50$233K−35.6% of holding+9.2%+5.4%3,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

262 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Zender ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax3381,264Form 4
2026-07-29Zender ChristopherofficerOption exercise7581,602Form 4
2026-07-29Zender ChristopherofficerOption exercise7581,516Form 4
2026-06-04HENDRICKSON THOMASdirectorGift1,0918,434Form 4
2026-06-04HENDRICKSON THOMASdirectorGift1,0910Form 4
2026-04-01SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorWithheld for tax2,56451,530Form 4
2026-04-01van der Valk EricdirectorWithheld for tax80613,175Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerWithheld for tax6464,890Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerWithheld for tax5585,423Form 4
2026-04-01McLain KevinofficerWithheld for tax37214,745Form 4
2026-04-01Zender ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax340844Form 4
2026-04-01Comitale James JofficerWithheld for tax3354,408Form 4
2026-04-01Kraus LarryofficerWithheld for tax3355,250Form 4
2026-04-01McLain KevinofficerWithheld for tax24115,050Form 4
2026-04-01Comitale James JofficerWithheld for tax2174,682Form 4
2026-04-01Kraus LarryofficerWithheld for tax2175,524Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerOption exercise1,0915,981Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerAward / grant5,4805,480Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerAward / grant12,49712,497Form 4
2026-04-01Zender ChristopherofficerOption exercise7641,184Form 4
2026-04-01van der Valk EricdirectorOption exercise1,85313,981Form 4
2026-04-01van der Valk EricdirectorOption exercise1,8533,704Form 4
2026-04-01van der Valk EricdirectorAward / grant26,85226,852Form 4
2026-04-01van der Valk EricdirectorAward / grant61,23561,235Form 4
2026-04-01SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorOption exercise5,89454,094Form 4
2026-04-01SWYGERT JOHN WdirectorOption exercise5,89411,787Form 4
2026-04-01McLain KevinofficerOption exercise54615,291Form 4
2026-04-01McLain KevinofficerOption exercise8421,684Form 4
2026-04-01WHITE STEPHEN WdirectorAward / grant1,6441,644Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerOption exercise1,2635,536Form 4
2026-04-01Helm Robert FofficerOption exercise1,0913,274Form 4
2026-04-01Zender ChristopherofficerOption exercise7642,291Form 4
2026-04-01Zender ChristopherofficerAward / grant3,8363,836Form 4
2026-04-01Zender ChristopherofficerAward / grant8,7488,748Form 4
2026-04-01Ahlman Alissa MdirectorOption exercise1,09110,103Form 4
2026-04-01Ahlman Alissa MdirectorOption exercise1,0910Form 4
2026-04-01Ahlman Alissa MdirectorAward / grant1,6441,644Form 4
2026-04-01Fisch RobertdirectorOption exercise1,09124,934Form 4
2026-04-01Fisch RobertdirectorOption exercise1,0910Form 4
2026-04-01Fisch RobertdirectorAward / grant1,6441,644Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.