Issued 2026-09-16 at $188.12 · now $188.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OKTA has typically landed between $148.18 and $235.56 — a range of −21.2% to +25.2% from the issuance price $188.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,352 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($188.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OKTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $188.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $188.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $187.43 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $171.28–$203.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.18–$235.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,352 windows spanning 2017-04-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −47.2% | −47.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-25 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-24 | −43.9% | −43.9% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +89.8% | +0.0% | +89.8% |
| 2026-05-01 | +78.6% | +0.0% | +84.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | +61.9% | −3.3% | +61.9% |
2,352 overlapping windows · 2017-04-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+6.8%
n=9
Feb
56%
+4.0%
n=9
Mar
44%
+0.7%
n=9
Apr
56%
+3.0%
n=9
May
60%
+10.9%
n=10
Jun
60%
−0.3%
n=10
Jul
70%
+3.4%
n=10
Aug
50%
+5.0%
n=10
Sep
30%
−5.3%
n=10
Oct
33%
−2.6%
n=9
Nov
56%
+2.6%
n=9
Dec
78%
+6.3%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 2,549 @ $168.55 | $430K | −13.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,069 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 14,216 @ $160.28 | $2.3M | −14.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 82,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 14,339 @ $158.51 | $2.3M | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 106,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 13,100 @ $162.32 | $2.1M | −35.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 12,352 @ $161.05 | $2.0M | −25.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 10,799 @ $162.98 | $1.8M | −46.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 10,194 @ $159.42 | $1.6M | −9.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $164.04 | $410K | −19.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $166.21 | $166K | −10.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 900 @ $165.20 | $149K | −8.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 600 @ $167.09 | $100K | −7.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 29,502 @ $146.39 | $4.3M | −31.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 25,034 @ $147.30 | $3.7M | −38.4% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 12,695 @ $145.63 | $1.8M | −11.8% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 1,705 @ $148.16 | $253K | −4.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 2,463 @ $120.00 | $296K | −8.9% of holding | +17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 1,777 @ $117.59 | $209K | −8.3% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,718 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $111.05 | $111K | −4.3% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,995 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 400 @ $109.00 | $44K | −1.7% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,995 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 300 @ $112.15 | $34K | −1.4% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,695 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 200 @ $115.33 | $23K | −0.9% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,495 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 200 @ $107.97 | $22K | −0.8% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,395 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 100 @ $118.49 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,618 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 34,152 @ $117.65 | $4.0M | −21.9% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 28,548 @ $116.67 | $3.3M | −15.5% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $118.52 | $273K | −1.9% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 8,074 @ $135.08 | $1.1M | −20.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 6,727 @ $135.72 | $913K | −21.2% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,947 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $131.76 | $329K | −5.6% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $130.81 | $327K | −5.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,470 @ $136.62 | $201K | −5.9% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $129.90 | $182K | −2.9% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $133.72 | $160K | −2.9% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $132.91 | $146K | −2.6% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,948 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $85.00 | $213K | −21.4% of holding | +29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,054 @ $80.00 | $84K | −2.1% of holding | +43.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 2,993 @ $76.73 | $230K | −5.5% of holding | +52.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 2,330 @ $77.50 | $181K | −4.5% of holding | +52.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,502 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Schellhase David | director | Purchase | 2,612 @ $71.86 | $188K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,612 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Schellhase David | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $72.46 | $80K | +42.1% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 4,278 @ $80.02 | $342K | −7.2% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,925 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,999 @ $79.15 | $158K | −3.3% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 100 @ $80.58 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 2,409 @ $80.00 | $193K | −13.5% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Addison Jonathan James | officer | Sale | 12,322 @ $77.87 | $960K | −59.0% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Addison Jonathan James | officer | Sale | 6,782 @ $77.10 | $523K | −24.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Addison Jonathan James | officer | Sale | 4,200 @ $78.65 | $330K | −49.0% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 5,110 @ $81.06 | $414K | −4.8% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 3,753 @ $81.60 | $306K | −3.7% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $80.19 | $160K | −1.9% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | McKinnon Todd | director | Sale | 400 @ $78.79 | $32K | −0.4% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 16,818 @ $80.00 | $1.3M | −52.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,836 @ $79.89 | $147K | −2.3% of holding | −15.6% | +103.8% | 79,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,836 @ $83.47 | $153K | −4.8% of holding | −6.3% | +61.3% | 36,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Tighe Brett | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $95.07 | $951K | −6.9% of holding | −7.9% | +48.3% | 134,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Ninan Shibu | officer | Sale | 1,052 @ $95.00 | $100K | −5.7% of holding | −7.9% | +48.3% | 17,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Schwartz Larissa | officer | Sale | 1,899 @ $90.74 | $172K | −4.7% of holding | −7.7% | +37.7% | 38,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 1,709 @ $83.98 | $144K | −12.5% of holding | −2.5% | +67.5% | 11,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 400 @ $84.63 | $34K | −3.3% of holding | −2.5% | +67.5% | 11,566 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 300 @ $86.50 | $26K | −2.6% of holding | −2.5% | +67.5% | 11,266 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
234 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Scott | officer | Award / grant | 6,808 | 6,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Scott | officer | Award / grant | 90,538 | 90,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Gift | 6,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Conversion | 6,000 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Conversion | 6,000 | 805,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Conversion | 41,251 | 48,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tighe Brett | officer | Conversion | 41,251 | 27,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Schellhase David | director | Option exercise | 1,942 | 5,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Schellhase David | director | Option exercise | 1,942 | 3,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Bates Anthony John | director | Option exercise | 2,033 | 6,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Bates Anthony John | director | Option exercise | 2,033 | 2,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Choi Emilie | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BERNSHTEYN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Schellhase David | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Gift | 6,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SAGAN PAUL | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bates Anthony John | director | Award / grant | 2,080 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Dixon Robert L JR | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Dixon Robert L JR | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 13,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Epstein Jeff | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 7,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Choi Emilie | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 11,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Epstein Jeff | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 12,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bates Anthony John | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 4,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bates Anthony John | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Award / grant | 2,487 | 2,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Choi Emilie | director | Option exercise | 2,487 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Ninan Shibu | officer | Gift | 2,492 | 23,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | McKinnon Todd | director | Option exercise | 5,035 | 102,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Conversion | 6,300 | 837,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | McKinnon Todd | director | Option exercise | 7,392 | 106,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kerrest Jacques Frederic | director | Conversion | 6,300 | 6,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Option exercise | 6,158 | 67,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Option exercise | 4,842 | 14,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | McKinnon Todd | director | Withheld for tax | 2,562 | 99,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kelleher Eric Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,280 | 36,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ninan Shibu | officer | Option exercise | 836 | 25,668 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.