Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.62 · now $35.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OKLO has typically landed between $24.48 and $69.04 — a range of −31.3% to +93.8% from the issuance price $35.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
573 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OKLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.87 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.21–$43.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.48–$69.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 573 windows spanning 2024-05-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-07 | −54.1% | −57.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | −52.2% | −52.7% | +9.9% |
| 2025-02-10 | −51.3% | −55.9% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-09-30 | +207.0% | +0.0% | +207.0% |
| 2024-09-27 | +177.1% | −8.5% | +177.1% |
| 2024-10-09 | +176.7% | −4.7% | +176.7% |
573 overlapping windows · 2024-05-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+53.5%
n=2
Feb
0%
−20.3%
n=2
Mar
0%
−28.2%
n=2
Apr
100%
+28.0%
n=2
May
50%
+57.2%
n=2
Jun
33%
−10.5%
n=3
Jul
67%
+6.1%
n=3
Aug
33%
−11.3%
n=3
Sep
67%
+25.0%
n=3
Oct
100%
+98.3%
n=2
Nov
50%
−13.2%
n=2
Dec
0%
−15.6%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Jansen John M | director | Sale | 6,354 @ $36.67 | $233K | −51.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Sale | 365 @ $43.31 | $16K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Sale | 238 @ $42.06 | $10K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Sale | 538 @ $39.88 | $21K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,075 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $38.66 | $1.5M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 398,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $38.66 | $1.5M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 398,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $38.40 | $1.5M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 431,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $38.40 | $1.5M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 431,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.56 | $771K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 496,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.56 | $771K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 496,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 19,800 @ $38.88 | $770K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 19,800 @ $38.88 | $770K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 16,430 @ $38.76 | $637K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 455,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Sale | 1,930 @ $38.40 | $74K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 475,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 200 @ $39.15 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 200 @ $39.15 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Sale | 223 @ $40.80 | $9K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Goodwin William Carroll Murphy | officer | Sale | 11,592 @ $39.77 | $461K | −20.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Sale | 3,264 @ $39.77 | $130K | −29.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Sale | 557 @ $39.77 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 472,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Hanson John | officer | Sale | 539 @ $39.77 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 359,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.68 | $1.7M | −7.8% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 471,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.68 | $1.7M | −7.8% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 471,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.35 | $1.7M | −8.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.35 | $1.7M | −8.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 16,452 @ $38.80 | $638K | −3.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 16,500 @ $38.55 | $636K | −2.9% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 16,500 @ $38.55 | $636K | −2.9% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 12,849 @ $40.14 | $516K | −2.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 523,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 12,849 @ $40.14 | $516K | −2.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 523,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 7,151 @ $40.94 | $293K | −1.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 516,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 7,151 @ $40.94 | $293K | −1.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 516,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $39.60 | $139K | −0.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 549,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $39.60 | $139K | −0.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 549,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $52.80 | $3.2M | −10.5% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 511,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $52.80 | $3.2M | −10.5% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 511,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $52.30 | $3.1M | −11.2% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 478,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $52.30 | $3.1M | −11.2% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 478,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $53.71 | $2.1M | −6.9% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 536,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $53.71 | $2.1M | −6.9% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 536,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $53.28 | $2.1M | −6.6% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 569,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $53.28 | $2.1M | −6.6% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 569,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 16,321 @ $52.63 | $859K | −3.5% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,557 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $68.29 | $4.1M | −9.5% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 571,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $68.29 | $4.1M | −9.5% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 571,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 46,843 @ $69.42 | $3.3M | −9.6% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $69.10 | $2.8M | −6.2% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 609,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $69.10 | $2.8M | −6.2% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 609,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 38,200 @ $69.64 | $2.7M | −6.2% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 578,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 38,200 @ $69.64 | $2.7M | −6.2% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 578,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 25,186 @ $67.75 | $1.7M | −4.5% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 538,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 25,186 @ $67.75 | $1.7M | −4.5% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 538,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 16,238 @ $65.00 | $1.1M | −3.9% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 397,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 14,814 @ $67.15 | $995K | −2.6% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 563,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 14,814 @ $67.15 | $995K | −2.6% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 563,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 12,600 @ $64.99 | $819K | −2.1% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 585,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 12,600 @ $64.99 | $819K | −2.1% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 585,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $69.31 | $693K | −2.0% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 487,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cochran Caroline | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $66.14 | $489K | −1.3% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 578,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DeWitte Jacob | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $66.14 | $489K | −1.3% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 578,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Gift | 6,763 | 116,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Gift | 6,763 | 116,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Hanson John | officer | Option exercise | 961 | 55,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,202 | 129,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,202 | 476,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,202 | 476,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Hanson John | officer | Option exercise | 961 | 360,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,202 | 476,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Hanson John | officer | Option exercise | 961 | 360,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Hanson John | officer | Option exercise | 961 | 360,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Hanson John | officer | Option exercise | 961 | 360,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 210 | 48,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 210 | 8,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 210 | 8,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 210 | 8,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 210 | 8,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 687 | 2,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 687 | 8,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 687 | 8,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 687 | 8,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 687 | 8,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 1,014 | 17,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 1,014 | 8,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 1,014 | 8,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 1,014 | 8,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 1,014 | 8,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,666 | 461,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,666 | 614,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Option exercise | 16,430 | 472,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bealmear Richard Craig | officer | Option exercise | 16,430 | 619,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 4,173 | 48,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 4,173 | 476,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 4,173 | 476,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 4,173 | 476,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Renner Alexandra | officer | Option exercise | 4,173 | 476,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 4,806 | 13,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 4,806 | 11,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 4,806 | 11,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 4,806 | 11,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Narayanadas Vivek | officer | Option exercise | 4,806 | 11,086 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.