OKEONEOK, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.70 · now $92.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OKE has typically landed between $82.66 and $104.27 — a range of −10.8% to +12.5% from the issuance price $92.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OKE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$82.66worst · -10.8%$104.27best · +12.5%
  • now $92.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.31 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.08–$98.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $82.66–$104.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−80.0%−80.0%+0.7%
2020-02-21−74.6%−80.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−73.3%−80.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+91.2%+0.0%+98.3%
2020-05-07+61.4%+0.0%+61.4%
2020-03-30+59.4%−4.2%+59.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$58.7B
market cap
$5.61
EPS (TTM)
16.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$33.6B
'20'25
Net income$3.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.46
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $92.70$75.51$256.57
  • DCF (intrinsic)$244.08
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$113.72
  • Analyst target · range $88.00–$104.00$91.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$92.70

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.6%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
74%
+6.1%
n=19
May
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
68%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
+3.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$98$632025-11-03: 1 insider purchase, $165K — DERKSEN BRIAN L2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $165K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DERKSEN BRIAN L — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-03DERKSEN BRIAN LdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $66.00$165K+13.4% of holding+14.5%+26.3%21,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

196 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28SPEARS MARY MofficerGift1,00027,353Form 4
2026-05-20HELDERMAN MARK WdirectorAward / grant3,03938,704Form 4
2026-05-20LARSON RANDALL JdirectorAward / grant1,8454,052Form 4
2026-05-20DERKSEN BRIAN LdirectorAward / grant1,84541,803Form 4
2026-05-20EDWARDS JULIE HdirectorAward / grant1,84568,630Form 4
2026-05-20Gobillot LoridirectorAward / grant1,8459,209Form 4
2026-05-20MCCOLLUM MARK AdirectorAward / grant1,8452,572Form 4
2026-05-20Smith Wayne ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,8458,063Form 4
2026-05-20Owodunni Precious WdirectorAward / grant1,8452,572Form 4
2026-05-20RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO AdirectorAward / grant1,47629,972Form 4
2026-05-20RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO AdirectorAward / grant36917,229Form 4
2026-02-22NORTON PIERCEdirectorWithheld for tax7,774127,782Form 4
2026-02-22Taylor Lyndon CofficerWithheld for tax3,8135,345Form 4
2026-02-22HULSE WALTER S IIIofficerWithheld for tax3,454168,985Form 4
2026-02-22BURDICK KEVIN LofficerWithheld for tax2,538170,405Form 4
2026-02-22SWORDS SHERIDAN CofficerWithheld for tax2,226236,033Form 4
2026-02-22SPEARS MARY MofficerWithheld for tax1,07428,353Form 4
2026-02-22SPEARS MARY MofficerOption exercise2,2860Form 4
2026-02-22HULSE WALTER S IIIofficerOption exercise7,7390Form 4
2026-02-22BURDICK KEVIN LofficerOption exercise5,629172,942Form 4
2026-02-22BURDICK KEVIN LofficerOption exercise5,6290Form 4
2026-02-22SWORDS SHERIDAN CofficerOption exercise4,925238,259Form 4
2026-02-22SWORDS SHERIDAN CofficerOption exercise4,9250Form 4
2026-02-22SPEARS MARY MofficerOption exercise2,28629,427Form 4
2026-02-22SPEARS MARY MofficerOption exercise2,2860Form 4
2026-02-22SPEARS MARY MofficerOption exercise2,28629,427Form 4
2026-02-22BURDICK KEVIN LofficerOption exercise5,629172,942Form 4
2026-02-22BURDICK KEVIN LofficerOption exercise5,6290Form 4
2026-02-22SWORDS SHERIDAN CofficerOption exercise4,925238,259Form 4
2026-02-22SWORDS SHERIDAN CofficerOption exercise4,9250Form 4
2026-02-22Taylor Lyndon CofficerOption exercise8,5399,157Form 4
2026-02-22Taylor Lyndon CofficerOption exercise8,5390Form 4
2026-02-22HULSE WALTER S IIIofficerOption exercise7,739172,439Form 4
2026-02-22HULSE WALTER S IIIofficerOption exercise7,7390Form 4
2026-02-22NORTON PIERCEdirectorOption exercise17,588135,556Form 4
2026-02-22NORTON PIERCEdirectorOption exercise17,5880Form 4
2026-02-22NORTON PIERCEdirectorOption exercise17,588135,556Form 4
2026-02-22Taylor Lyndon CofficerOption exercise8,5399,157Form 4
2026-02-22NORTON PIERCEdirectorOption exercise17,5880Form 4
2026-02-22Taylor Lyndon CofficerOption exercise8,5390Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2025-09-172025-08-18$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2025-04-172025-04-03$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2024-06-072024-05-15$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2024-06-072024-05-15$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2024-03-122024-02-14$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2024-03-122024-02-14$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2023-12-072023-11-14$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2023-12-072023-11-14$1–15K
Kevin HernHousepurchase2023-09-072023-08-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.