Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.44 · now $8.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OIS has typically landed between $6.62 and $10.75 — a range of −21.5% to +27.3% from the issuance price $8.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.42 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.58–$9.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.62–$10.75
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −84.7% | −84.7% | +2.4% |
| 2020-02-19 | −82.1% | −85.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −82.0% | −82.0% | +2.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +148.2% | −5.6% | +148.2% |
| 2020-05-07 | +146.1% | −5.9% | +147.4% |
| 2020-05-08 | +108.8% | −12.5% | +130.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Hollek Darrell E | director | Sale | 42,511 @ $11.61 | $494K | −29.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Sale | 14,760 @ $6.75 | $100K | −0.7% of holding | +18.5% | +6.3% | 2,109,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 1,561 | 226,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 225,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hollek Darrell E | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 120,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | DICKERSON LAWRENCE R | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 175,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Wright E Joseph | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 163,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Vanderhider Hallie A. | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 160,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Castillo-Rhodes Denise | director | Award / grant | 16,760 | 140,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Award / grant | 13,357 | 737,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Autenrieth Matthew Earl | officer | Award / grant | 35,619 | 59,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Award / grant | 66,785 | 737,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 1,074 | 208,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Withheld for tax | 42,061 | 2,205,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Withheld for tax | 16,430 | 670,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,266 | 723,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Taylor Brian E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,858 | 212,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Award / grant | 62,500 | 739,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Award / grant | 62,500 | 687,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Award / grant | 160,000 | 2,247,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Taylor Brian E. | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 222,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Withheld for tax | 34,726 | 2,087,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Withheld for tax | 12,057 | 624,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,203 | 676,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Award / grant | 28,471 | 636,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Award / grant | 28,471 | 687,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Award / grant | 81,998 | 2,122,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Withheld for tax | 41,655 | 2,040,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TAYLOR CINDY B | director | Withheld for tax | 27,892 | 2,081,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Withheld for tax | 14,463 | 608,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,439 | 659,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | HAJDIK LLOYD A | director | Withheld for tax | 9,684 | 622,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Moses Philip Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,998 | 672,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Taylor Brian E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,161 | 184,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Taylor Brian E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,230 | 192,040 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 1,846 | 207,244 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 2,063 | 205,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | POTTER ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 2,332 | 203,335 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Castillo-Rhodes Denise | director | Award / grant | 31,185 | 123,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | DICKERSON LAWRENCE R | director | Award / grant | 31,185 | 158,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Hollek Darrell E | director | Award / grant | 31,185 | 146,584 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Vanderhider Hallie A. | director | Award / grant | 31,185 | 144,106 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.