Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.61 · now $46.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OII has typically landed between $37.94 and $58.11 — a range of −18.6% to +24.7% from the issuance price $46.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OII has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.71 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.9–$51.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.94–$58.11
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −84.3% | −84.3% | +2.3% |
| 2020-02-14 | −83.2% | −83.2% | +0.7% |
| 2020-02-13 | −82.1% | −82.1% | +4.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +100.0% | +0.0% | +100.0% |
| 2020-10-26 | +91.8% | −8.7% | +91.8% |
| 2020-10-28 | +88.8% | +0.0% | +110.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | MURPHY PAUL B JR | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $48.37 | $484K | −12.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,916 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Childress Earl | officer | Sale | 12,701 @ $46.71 | $593K | −35.7% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MCEVOY M KEVIN | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $47.92 | $144K | −2.2% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | DYER CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $47.65 | $57K | −7.5% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | GOODWIN DEANNA L | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $40.69 | $285K | −16.3% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | LARSON RODERICK A. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $38.27 | $191K | −1.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 397,279 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | MCDONALD MARTIN J | officer | Sale | 43,947 @ $38.49 | $1.7M | −47.2% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | MCDONALD MARTIN J | officer | Sale | 26,053 @ $38.33 | $999K | −21.9% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | MCEVOY M KEVIN | director | Sale | 25,678 @ $35.27 | $906K | −16.5% of holding | +1.7% | +30.5% | 130,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Kriendler Holly | officer | Sale | 5,798 @ $37.31 | $216K | −19.0% of holding | +4.5% | +23.8% | 24,702 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Laura Benjamin | officer | Sale | 5,106 @ $36.88 | $188K | −11.1% of holding | +4.5% | +23.8% | 40,805 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | GRANATO LEONARDO P | officer | Sale | 1,236 @ $37.00 | $46K | −8.0% of holding | +4.5% | +23.8% | 14,248 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | GRANATO LEONARDO P | officer | Sale | 202 @ $37.34 | $8K | −100.0% of holding | +4.5% | +23.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Laura Benjamin | officer | Sale | 33,176 @ $37.51 | $1.2M | −41.9% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 45,911 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Childress Earl | officer | Sale | 22,518 @ $37.41 | $842K | −38.8% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 35,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kriendler Holly | officer | Sale | 19,007 @ $37.73 | $717K | −38.4% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 30,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Sale | 10,284 @ $38.96 | $401K | −22.5% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 35,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Beachy Karen H | director | Sale | 9,800 @ $37.41 | $367K | −30.0% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 22,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GRANATO LEONARDO P | officer | Sale | 8,415 @ $37.47 | $315K | −35.2% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 15,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Dunn Catherine E | officer | Sale | 6,204 @ $37.52 | $233K | −100.0% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | DYER CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $38.08 | $228K | −27.4% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 15,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Dunn Catherine E | officer | Sale | 2,866 @ $37.97 | $109K | −21.1% of holding | +3.0% | +19.7% | 10,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Sale | 28,312 @ $26.33 | $745K | −34.7% of holding | +18.6% | +48.4% | 53,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Sale | 843 @ $26.85 | $23K | −1.6% of holding | +18.6% | +48.4% | 52,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | MURPHY PAUL B JR | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $24.25 | $243K | −11.9% of holding | −0.9% | +36.9% | 74,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Curtis Alan R | officer | Sale | 14,840 @ $24.36 | $361K | −8.7% of holding | +2.5% | +38.8% | 155,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Beachy Karen H | director | Sale | 5,300 @ $18.94 | $100K | −14.0% of holding | +5.5% | +10.6% | 32,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Jenkins Roger W. | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 4,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BERRY WILLIAM B | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 101,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Reinhardsen Jon Erik | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 101,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Beachy Karen H | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 27,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GOODWIN DEANNA L | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 42,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MCEVOY M KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 6,729 | 137,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MURPHY PAUL B JR | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 78,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Poddar Reema | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 23,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | WEBSTER STEVEN A | director | Award / grant | 4,576 | 165,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Roedel Shaun | officer | Gift | 2,000 | 54,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | LARSON RODERICK A. | director | Withheld for tax | 38,227 | 251,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,673 | 45,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Laura Benjamin | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,551 | 79,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | MCDONALD MARTIN J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,826 | 119,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Childress Earl | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,695 | 58,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kriendler Holly | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,048 | 49,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | GRANATO LEONARDO P | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,812 | 23,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | DYER CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,812 | 21,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Roedel Shaun | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,067 | 56,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Dunn Catherine E | officer | Withheld for tax | 575 | 13,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Kriendler Holly | officer | Award / grant | 7,878 | 7,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DYER CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Award / grant | 6,492 | 6,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MCDONALD MARTIN J | officer | Award / grant | 10,111 | 10,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MERZ WILLIAM R. | officer | Award / grant | 6,422 | 6,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | GRANATO LEONARDO P | officer | Award / grant | 6,492 | 6,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Sumruld Michael W | officer | Award / grant | 25,050 | 25,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Childress Earl | officer | Award / grant | 9,413 | 9,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Award / grant | 15,990 | 15,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Dunn Catherine E | officer | Award / grant | 3,317 | 3,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | LARSON RODERICK A. | director | Award / grant | 82,672 | 82,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Laura Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 18,988 | 18,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Roedel Shaun | officer | Award / grant | 5,722 | 5,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Simons Jennifer Fremont | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,578 | 81,499 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Roedel Shaun | officer | Gift | 2,000 | 58,213 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Reinhardsen Jon Erik | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 96,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Beachy Karen H | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 37,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | BERRY WILLIAM B | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 96,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Poddar Reema | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 18,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | MURPHY PAUL B JR | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 84,340 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | GOODWIN DEANNA L | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 38,329 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.