OGN · TickerCove

OGNOrganon & Co.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.67 · now $13.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OGN has typically landed between $10.92 and $16.30 — a range of −20.1% to +19.2% from the issuance price $13.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,308 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.67 · 99% of range

$5.69 low$13.78 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−20.1%worst (p90)+19.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

3 buys · 11 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.67 (+0.0%)
typical $13.6 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $12.41–$14.79
90% range $10.92–$16.3

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,308 windows spanning 2021-05-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-09-30	−40.6%	−40.6%	+3.1%
2025-10-01	−40.2%	−42.3%	+0.2%
2025-10-06	−39.8%	−41.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-30	+134.1%	+0.0%	+134.1%
2026-03-27	+128.1%	−2.4%	+128.1%
2026-04-08	+127.4%	+0.0%	+128.9%

1,308 overlapping windows · 2021-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+10.3%

n=5

Feb

40%

−2.1%

n=5

Mar

20%

−4.1%

n=5

Apr

40%

+20.9%

n=5

May

60%

−2.7%

n=5

Jun

50%

−2.6%

n=6

Jul

50%

+0.2%

n=6

Aug

67%

+2.1%

n=6

Sep

17%

−7.3%

n=6

Oct

40%

−5.9%

n=5

Nov

40%

−8.0%

n=5

Dec

60%

+5.2%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-05	Drinane Juliana Papa	officer	Sale	14,761 @ $13.57	$200K	−44.4% of holding	−0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	18,475	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-06	Holzbaur Lynette	officer	Purchase	26,448 @ $13.35	$353K	+100.2% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	52,851	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	COX CARRIE SMITH	director	Purchase	65,400 @ $7.67	$502K	+524.5% of holding	−6.6%	+66.2%	77,869	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14	COX CARRIE SMITH	director	Purchase	12,469 @ $8.07	$101K	ownership Δ n/a	+23.2%	−20.9%	12,469	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07	Falcione Aaron	officer	Purchase	5,500 @ $8.77	$48K	+9.6% of holding	+2.6%	−48.3%	62,974	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06	Weaver Kirke	officer	Purchase	8,045 @ $9.21	$74K	+18.1% of holding	−5.4%	−49.8%	52,489	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06	Karp Daniel	officer	Purchase	3,500 @ $8.24	$29K	+8.1% of holding	−5.4%	−49.8%	46,669	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05	Ali Kevin	director	Purchase	34,000 @ $8.80	$299K	+13.7% of holding	+3.7%	−44.8%	282,731	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05	WALSH MATTHEW M	director	Purchase	11,400 @ $8.82	$101K	+8.6% of holding	+3.7%	−44.8%	144,484	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	Arjona Ferreira Juan Camilo	officer	Withheld for tax	4,134	37,432	Form 4
2026-08-11	Arjona Ferreira Juan Camilo	officer	Option exercise	11,519	0	Form 4
2026-08-11	Arjona Ferreira Juan Camilo	officer	Option exercise	11,519	41,566	Form 4
2026-06-12	Sharp Shalini	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,496	Form 4
2026-06-12	ESSNER ROBERT	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Ezekowitz Alan	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Gayle Helene D	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	LAZARUS ROCHELLE B	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Leone Deborah R	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Ozuah Philip	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Patton Cynthia M	director	Award / grant	17,857	81,141	Form 4
2026-06-12	Sequeira Ramona	director	Award / grant	17,857	39,951	Form 4
2026-03-31	WALSH MATTHEW M	director	Withheld for tax	7,380	212,746	Form 4
2026-03-31	Arjona Ferreira Juan Camilo	officer	Withheld for tax	4,820	30,047	Form 4
2026-03-31	Morrissey Joseph T. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,784	123,123	Form 4
2026-03-31	Stahler Rachel A	officer	Withheld for tax	4,217	116,105	Form 4
2026-03-31	WALSH MATTHEW M	director	Withheld for tax	4,127	198,580	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Withheld for tax	3,834	101,431	Form 4
2026-03-31	Karp Daniel	officer	Withheld for tax	3,554	64,938	Form 4
2026-03-31	Weaver Kirke	officer	Withheld for tax	3,508	92,639	Form 4
2026-03-31	Drinane Juliana Papa	officer	Withheld for tax	3,451	33,236	Form 4
2026-03-31	Nisita Vittorio	officer	Withheld for tax	2,875	70,619	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Withheld for tax	2,306	94,072	Form 4
2026-03-31	Stahler Rachel A	officer	Withheld for tax	2,246	108,010	Form 4
2026-03-31	Morrissey Joseph T. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,221	111,118	Form 4
2026-03-31	Drinane Juliana Papa	officer	Withheld for tax	2,185	26,614	Form 4
2026-03-31	Karp Daniel	officer	Withheld for tax	2,105	69,548	Form 4
2026-03-31	Holzbaur Lynette	officer	Withheld for tax	1,914	26,402	Form 4
2026-03-31	Weaver Kirke	officer	Withheld for tax	1,767	83,835	Form 4
2026-03-31	Nisita Vittorio	officer	Withheld for tax	1,578	65,100	Form 4
2026-03-31	Holzbaur Lynette	officer	Withheld for tax	1,212	21,601	Form 4
2026-03-31	Nisita Vittorio	officer	Option exercise	4,606	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	Nisita Vittorio	officer	Option exercise	8,394	16,790	Form 4
2026-03-31	Drinane Juliana Papa	officer	Option exercise	6,378	28,799	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Option exercise	6,732	96,378	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Option exercise	11,193	105,265	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Award / grant	166,944	166,944	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Option exercise	6,732	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	Falcione Aaron	officer	Option exercise	11,193	22,386	Form 4
2026-03-31	Stahler Rachel A	officer	Option exercise	6,555	110,256	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Gary Peters	Senate	sale	2025-11-24	2025-07-10	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2024-01-04	2023-12-04	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2023-12-06	2023-11-03	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2023-11-08	2023-10-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2023-08-07	2023-07-28	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2023-07-11	2023-06-29	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2023-06-12	2023-05-19	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2023-05-08	2023-04-25	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-15	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-15	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-21	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-21	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-22	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-10-13	2022-09-22	$15–50K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i