Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.30 · now $26.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OFLX has typically landed between $21.83 and $30.61 — a range of −17.0% to +16.4% from the issuance price $26.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OFLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.52 (-3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.66–$27.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.83–$30.61
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-03 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +6.9% |
| 2009-02-05 | −40.7% | −43.3% | +3.0% |
| 2008-06-10 | −40.7% | −41.1% | +6.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-07-15 | +91.9% | +0.0% | +91.9% |
| 2009-03-05 | +73.5% | +0.0% | +73.5% |
| 2008-07-16 | +69.9% | +0.0% | +69.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.42 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Purchase | 790 @ $25.43 | $20K | +79.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $29.50 | $30K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.0% | −20.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Evans David K | director | Purchase | 242 @ $30.62 | $7K | +24.2% of holding | +7.2% | −3.0% | 1,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Evans David K | director | Purchase | 142 @ $30.67 | $4K | +11.4% of holding | +7.2% | −3.0% | 1,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | SHEA STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,350 @ $28.47 | $67K | +167.9% of holding | +9.4% | +6.6% | 3,750 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | SHEA STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $28.44 | $40K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.9% | +1.4% | 1,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.29 | $14K | +100.0% of holding | +9.1% | +6.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | Hoben Kevin R | director | Sale | 972 @ $31.55 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | +2.4% | −16.8% | 898,533 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $29.72 | $15K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.2% | −30.7% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Disposition | 593 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Disposition | 494 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Disposition | 395 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 593 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 494 | 494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Option exercise | 395 | 395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Option exercise | 395 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 593 | 593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 494 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 494 | 494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 593 | 593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 494 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 593 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Option exercise | 395 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Option exercise | 395 | 395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Award / grant | 2,461 | 2,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Asch Susan B. | officer | Award / grant | 820 | 820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Award / grant | 1,641 | 1,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Award / grant | 2,051 | 2,051 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | REED STEWART B | director | Gift | 4,000 | 496,394 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Asch Susan B. | officer | Award / grant | 828 | 828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Award / grant | 2,069 | 2,069 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Award / grant | 2,483 | 2,483 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Unger Matthew Francis | officer | Award / grant | 1,655 | 1,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Disposition | 603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Disposition | 402 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 402 | 402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 402 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 402 | 402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Moran Edwin B. | director | Option exercise | 402 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 603 | 603 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Rivest Dean W. | director | Option exercise | 603 | 603 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | REED STEWART B | director | Gift | 2,500 | 500,394 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.