ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $174.36 · now $174.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ODFL has typically landed between $150.15 and $205.73 — a range of −13.9% to +18.0% from the issuance price $174.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($174.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ODFL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $174.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$150.15worst · -13.9%$205.73best · +18.0%
  • now $174.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $174.74 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $163.26–$186.22
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $150.15–$205.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−32.3%−35.4%+8.0%
2008-09-10−31.3%−31.3%+14.9%
2008-09-18−29.7%−40.2%+0.0%
3 best
2008-01-08+44.9%+0.0%+44.9%
2008-01-11+43.9%+0.0%+46.6%
2008-01-09+43.2%−2.3%+43.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$48.5B
market cap
$4.78
EPS (TTM)
48.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$5.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$955M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr23.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.03
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $174.36$48.31$271.38
  • DCF (intrinsic)$63.69
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$146.52
  • Analyst target · range $205.00–$256.00$229.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$174.36

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
58%
+3.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.7%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.3%
n=19
May
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
37%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+6.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
78%
+4.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.4%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$249$1262026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $4.0M — Overbey Cecil E. Jr.2026-05-04: 4 insider sales, $4.2M — Gantt Greg C …2026-02-26: 2 insider sales, $4.9M — CONGDON EARL E …2026-02-19: 2 insider sales, $10.1M — CONGDON DAVID S …2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $625K — Gabosch Bradley R, Kelley Christopher James2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Gantt Greg C2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $18.0M2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $4.0M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Overbey Cecil E. Jr. — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gantt Greg C — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gantt Greg C — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gantt Greg C — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gantt Greg C — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer CONGDON EARL E — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer CONGDON EARL E — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CONGDON DAVID S — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CONGDON DAVID S — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Gabosch Bradley R — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kelley Christopher James — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 27 days after the tradedirector Gantt Greg C — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Overbey Cecil E. Jr.officerSale19,952 @ $198.39$4.0M−46.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open22,746Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Gantt Greg CdirectorSale11,654 @ $191.47$2.2M−11.0% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open93,931Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Gantt Greg CdirectorSale5,073 @ $190.39$966K−4.6% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open105,585Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Gantt Greg CdirectorSale4,289 @ $192.53$826K−4.6% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open89,642Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Gantt Greg CdirectorSale1,091 @ $193.24$211K−1.2% of holding+17.8%not yet — horizon still open88,551Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26CONGDON EARL EofficerSale14,402 @ $196.50$2.8M−0.7% of holding+2.8%−11.5%2,162,113Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26CONGDON EARL EofficerSale10,598 @ $195.62$2.1M−0.5% of holding+2.8%−11.5%2,176,515Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19CONGDON DAVID SdirectorSale42,000 @ $194.67$8.2M−5.5% of holding−0.6%−6.9%722,800Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19CONGDON DAVID SdirectorSale10,000 @ $195.17$2.0M−1.4% of holding−0.6%−6.9%712,800Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18Gabosch Bradley RdirectorSale3,134 @ $194.27$609K−21.7% of holding−1.9%−6.6%11,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Kelley Christopher JamesofficerSale80 @ $200.43$16K−1.9% of holding−1.9%−6.6%4,193Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade
2026-02-09Gantt Greg CdirectorSale12,024 @ $196.43$2.4M−9.8% of holding−1.1%−4.5%110,658Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Satterfield Adam NofficerPurchase2,457 @ $175.93$432K+11.6% of holding−0.5%−23.4%23,594Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13Gantt Greg CdirectorSale6,414 @ $205.87$1.3M−5.8% of holding−12.4%−32.7%104,266Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27CONGDON DAVID SdirectorGift295,6700Form 4
2026-05-20CONGDON JOHN R JRdirectorAward / grant8592,683Form 4
2026-05-20Smith Albert Randolph IIdirectorAward / grant859859Form 4
2026-05-20Davis Andrew StephendirectorAward / grant8593,635Form 4
2026-05-20Stallings Wendy T.directorAward / grant8597,817Form 4
2026-05-20Gantt Greg CdirectorAward / grant85989,410Form 4
2026-05-20Aaholm Sherry AdirectorAward / grant85912,739Form 4
2026-05-20Stith Thomas A. IIIdirectorAward / grant8594,817Form 4
2026-05-20Gabosch Bradley RdirectorAward / grant85912,137Form 4
2026-05-20MILLER CHERYLdirectorAward / grant8592,683Form 4
2026-05-20Kasarda John D.directorAward / grant85916,223Form 4
2026-05-19CONGDON DAVID SdirectorGift73,730606,299Form 4
2026-05-18CONGDON EARL EofficerGift7,3702,151,847Form 4
2026-02-26CONGDON EARL EofficerGift2,896700,651Form 4
2026-02-26CONGDON EARL EofficerGift2,8962,159,217Form 4
2026-02-25CONGDON DAVID SdirectorGift1,274297,250Form 4
2026-02-25CONGDON DAVID SdirectorGift2,548679,837Form 4
2026-02-23CONGDON DAVID SdirectorGift30,415682,385Form 4
2026-02-12Freeman Kevin M.directorWithheld for tax76314,707Form 4
2026-02-12Plemmons Gregory BofficerWithheld for tax5019,917Form 4
2026-02-12Satterfield Adam NofficerWithheld for tax50154,689Form 4
2026-02-12Overbey Cecil E. Jr.officerWithheld for tax26242,698Form 4
2026-02-12Parr Ross H.officerWithheld for tax26243,958Form 4
2026-02-12Brooks Christopher TofficerWithheld for tax25741,042Form 4
2026-02-12Hartsell Steven W.officerWithheld for tax2577,619Form 4
2026-02-12Kelley Christopher JamesofficerWithheld for tax2577,629Form 4
2026-02-12Brinker Clayton G.officerWithheld for tax522,029Form 4
2026-02-12CONGDON JOHN R JRdirectorGift3963,892,898Form 4
2026-02-11Overbey Cecil E. Jr.officerAward / grant3,27242,960Form 4
2026-02-11Brinker Clayton G.officerAward / grant1,5372,081Form 4
2026-02-11Brooks Christopher TofficerAward / grant3,20441,299Form 4
2026-02-11CONGDON JOHN R JRdirectorGift2,6883,893,294Form 4
2026-02-11Freeman Kevin M.directorAward / grant6,24315,470Form 4
2026-02-11Hartsell Steven W.officerAward / grant3,2047,876Form 4
2026-02-11Kelley Christopher JamesofficerAward / grant3,2047,886Form 4
2026-02-11Parr Ross H.officerAward / grant3,27244,220Form 4
2026-02-11Satterfield Adam NofficerAward / grant4,09855,190Form 4
2026-02-11Plemmons Gregory BofficerAward / grant4,09810,418Form 4
2026-02-08Freeman Kevin M.directorWithheld for tax4549,227Form 4
2026-02-08Satterfield Adam NofficerWithheld for tax32751,092Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2025-10-162025-10-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.