Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.74 · now $87.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ODC has typically landed between $77.37 and $107.72 — a range of −11.8% to +22.8% from the issuance price $87.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,996 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ODC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $87.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.41 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $82.96–$95.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $77.37–$107.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2007-07-25 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +0.0% |
| 2007-07-26 | −52.3% | −52.3% | +0.0% |
| 2007-04-09 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2006-10-13 | +132.9% | +0.0% | +132.9% |
| 2006-11-06 | +115.7% | +0.0% | +131.7% |
| 2007-08-24 | +115.0% | +0.0% | +115.0% |
4,996 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Chube Ellen-Blair | director | Sale | 1,390 @ $73.06 | $102K | −13.5% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,930 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Hindsley Paul | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $63.90 | $383K | −35.3% of holding | +7.4% | +20.9% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-23 | Scheland Laura G | officer | Sale | 850 @ $60.60 | $52K | −2.1% of holding | −7.8% | +14.3% | 39,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Scheland Laura G | officer | Sale | 850 @ $60.30 | $51K | −2.1% of holding | −8.1% | +16.4% | 39,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Robey Walter Wade | officer | Sale | 4,025 @ $59.18 | $238K | −13.9% of holding | −4.7% | +15.4% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Ryan Amy | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $60.62 | $61K | −25.6% of holding | −3.9% | −11.8% | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $61.75 | $154K | −17.9% of holding | −5.1% | −15.1% | 11,453 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-20 | Chube Ellen-Blair | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $55.83 | $140K | −21.2% of holding | +0.1% | −21.6% | 9,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Chube Ellen-Blair | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $42.51 | $149K | −22.8% of holding | +1.5% | +11.8% | 11,820 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-23 | Ryan Amy | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $41.78 | $88K | −35.0% of holding | +2.6% | +35.2% | 3,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Sale | 843 @ $42.46 | $36K | −1.2% of holding | +2.6% | +35.2% | 69,953 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Sale | 3,154 @ $42.75 | $135K | −4.3% of holding | +1.5% | +36.2% | 70,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,528 | 60,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Robey Walter Wade | officer | Withheld for tax | 693 | 24,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Nemeroff Michael A | director | Gift | 5,987 | 52,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | ROETH GEORGE C | director | Gift | 2,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | WASHOW LAWRENCE E | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | SCHMEDA PATRICIA J | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | SELIG ALLAN H | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 103,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Ryan Amy | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 3,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Nemeroff Michael A | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 58,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chube Ellen-Blair | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 10,320 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hindsley Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 17,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | ROETH GEORGE C | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | JAFFEE DANIEL S | director | Withheld for tax | 35,916 | 1,038,078 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Scheland Laura G | officer | Award / grant | 6,000 | 43,680 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Robey Walter Wade | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 29,025 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Kreh Susan M | director | Withheld for tax | 4,000 | 90,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Scheland Laura G | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,930 | 40,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-18 | Christiansen Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-18 | Kreh Susan M | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 94,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Blake Jonathan E | officer | Award / grant | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-21 | Lamson Christopher B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,552 | 73,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-21 | Robey Walter Wade | officer | Withheld for tax | 693 | 24,025 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | JAFFEE DANIEL S | director | Gift | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | JAFFEE DANIEL S | director | Conversion | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | JAFFEE DANIEL S | director | Conversion | 2,500 | 536,997 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.