Issued 2026-08-13 at $10.23 · now $10.10 (2026-08-13, −1.3% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, OCUL has typically landed between $7.36 and $14.03 — a range of −28.0% to +37.1% from the issuance price $10.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($10.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OCUL has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $10.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.1 (-1.3%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.08 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.63–$11.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.36–$14.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-05-26 | −61.0% | −61.0% | +1.3% |
| 2015-09-24 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +0.0% |
| 2016-06-02 | −59.3% | −61.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-24 | +145.9% | +0.0% | +145.9% |
| 2024-01-23 | +134.3% | −3.1% | +134.3% |
| 2024-01-25 | +130.8% | +0.0% | +130.8% |
3,010 overlapping windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-01-08 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Subjects With Neovascular Age- Related Macular Degeneration (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Participants With Non-Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-08-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Long-Term Safety of Intravitreal OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Participants With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration Who Successfully Completed 2-Year OTX-TKI-2023-AMD-301 or OTX-TKI-2023-AMD-303 Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.