Issued 2026-09-25 at $9.65 · now $9.65 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, OCUL has typically landed between $6.95 and $13.31 — a range of −28.0% to +37.9% from the issuance price $9.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,040 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($9.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OCUL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $9.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.54 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.14–$10.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.95–$13.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,040 windows spanning 2014-07-25 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-05-26 | −61.0% | −61.0% | +1.3% |
| 2015-09-24 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +0.0% |
| 2016-06-02 | −59.3% | −61.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-24 | +145.9% | +0.0% | +145.9% |
| 2024-01-23 | +134.3% | −3.1% | +134.3% |
| 2024-01-25 | +130.8% | +0.0% | +130.8% |
3,040 overlapping windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-01-08 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Subjects With Neovascular Age- Related Macular Degeneration (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Participants With Non-Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-08-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Long-Term Safety of Intravitreal OTX-TKI (Axitinib Implant) in Participants With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration Who Successfully Completed 2-Year OTX-TKI-2023-AMD-301 or OTX-TKI-2023-AMD-303 Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
42%
−1.3%
n=12
Feb
67%
+20.5%
n=12
Mar
50%
+2.0%
n=12
Apr
58%
−2.3%
n=12
May
50%
+0.0%
n=12
Jun
50%
+3.3%
n=12
Jul
42%
−3.6%
n=12
Aug
62%
+8.1%
n=13
Sep
15%
−9.0%
n=13
Oct
33%
−7.7%
n=12
Nov
67%
+14.0%
n=12
Dec
42%
+6.3%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 1,099 @ $10.24 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,649 @ $10.77 | $233K | −0.8% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,525,429 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,296 @ $10.78 | $36K | −1.0% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 3,035 @ $10.77 | $33K | −1.1% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,897 @ $10.78 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 326,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Sale | 14,828 @ $8.27 | $123K | −4.7% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,156 @ $8.20 | $173K | −0.8% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,597,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,018 @ $8.20 | $25K | −0.9% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 320,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 2,967 @ $8.20 | $24K | −1.1% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 266,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,858 @ $8.20 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 20,056 @ $8.28 | $166K | −0.7% of holding | +0.3% | +15.7% | 3,013,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,057 @ $8.28 | $25K | −0.9% of holding | +0.3% | +15.7% | 323,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 2,810 @ $8.28 | $23K | −1.0% of holding | +0.3% | +15.7% | 269,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,759 @ $8.28 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | +15.7% | 330,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD | director | Purchase | 60,229 @ $7.66 | $461K | +32.3% of holding | +8.8% | +30.8% | 246,933 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Sale | 3,510 @ $7.74 | $27K | −1.1% of holding | +8.8% | +30.8% | 314,907 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 124,882 @ $9.04 | $1.1M | −4.0% of holding | −2.9% | −3.7% | 3,033,078 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 11,446 @ $9.04 | $103K | −3.0% of holding | −2.9% | −3.7% | 366,356 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 10,348 @ $9.04 | $94K | −3.0% of holding | −2.9% | −3.7% | 332,412 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Sale | 7,863 @ $9.04 | $71K | −2.4% of holding | −2.9% | −3.7% | 318,417 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 6,035 @ $8.54 | $52K | −1.6% of holding | +22.1% | −10.4% | 377,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 5,455 @ $9.14 | $50K | −1.4% of holding | +22.1% | −17.6% | 383,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 19,530 @ $12.04 | $235K | −0.6% of holding | +1.5% | −37.9% | 3,157,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,469 @ $12.04 | $42K | −1.4% of holding | +1.5% | −37.9% | 245,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 3,007 @ $12.02 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | +1.5% | −37.9% | 191,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,878 @ $12.04 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | +1.5% | −37.9% | 277,860 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Saroj Namrata | officer | Sale | 25,865 @ $10.74 | $278K | −12.9% of holding | +15.2% | −20.2% | 174,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Anderman Todd | officer | Sale | 11,132 @ $12.34 | $137K | −11.3% of holding | −10.3% | −27.7% | 87,568 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 10,502 @ $11.04 | $116K | −4.0% of holding | +3.5% | −26.1% | 249,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 9,653 @ $11.03 | $106K | −4.7% of holding | +3.5% | −26.1% | 194,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 1,066 @ $12.43 | $13K | −0.3% of holding | −17.8% | −20.7% | 308,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,494 @ $12.04 | $259K | −0.7% of holding | +2.6% | −28.5% | 3,227,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,063 @ $12.04 | $37K | −1.2% of holding | +2.6% | −28.5% | 259,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 3,011 @ $12.04 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | +2.6% | −28.5% | 204,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,885 @ $12.04 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | +2.6% | −28.5% | 279,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Sale | 13,861 @ $8.05 | $112K | −6.3% of holding | +11.7% | +29.0% | 206,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,219 @ $7.18 | $152K | −0.6% of holding | +20.7% | +53.2% | 3,499,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,024 @ $7.18 | $22K | −1.1% of holding | +20.7% | +53.2% | 262,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 2,974 @ $7.17 | $21K | −1.4% of holding | +20.7% | +53.2% | 207,104 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,862 @ $7.17 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +20.7% | +53.2% | 281,623 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $6.96 | $70K | +6.1% of holding | +13.3% | +23.4% | 172,704 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,475 @ $6.87 | $148K | −0.6% of holding | +15.2% | +68.2% | 3,520,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 3,061 @ $6.87 | $21K | −1.1% of holding | +15.2% | +68.2% | 265,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 3,009 @ $6.87 | $21K | −1.4% of holding | +15.2% | +68.2% | 210,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,895 @ $6.84 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +15.2% | +68.2% | 283,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 11,119 @ $7.81 | $87K | −5.4% of holding | −1.3% | +54.1% | 193,444 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-31 | Notman Donald | officer | Sale | 6,301 @ $7.84 | $49K | −3.0% of holding | −11.4% | +54.9% | 204,563 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 20,680 @ $9.01 | $186K | −2.5% of holding | −7.0% | −11.1% | 791,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Sale | 2,948 @ $9.01 | $27K | −1.1% of holding | −7.0% | −11.1% | 269,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Sale | 2,897 @ $9.01 | $26K | −1.3% of holding | −7.0% | −11.1% | 213,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,814 @ $9.00 | $16K | −1.0% of holding | −7.0% | −11.1% | 174,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-23 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 20,880 @ $9.02 | $188K | −2.5% of holding | −7.7% | −30.3% | 812,473 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-23 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,832 @ $9.02 | $17K | −1.0% of holding | −7.7% | −30.3% | 176,194 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-23 | Dugel Pravin | director | Sale | 21,626 @ $5.79 | $125K | −2.5% of holding | +9.2% | +33.3% | 833,353 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-23 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Sale | 2,274 @ $5.84 | $13K | −1.3% of holding | +9.2% | +33.3% | 178,026 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-26 | SUMMER ROAD LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 930,851 @ $7.52 | $7.0M | +12.2% of holding | −9.9% | −20.5% | 8,591,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 50,092 | 744,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 50,092 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 50,092 | 2,547,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 50,092 | 50,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Williams Leslie J. | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RAINES MERILEE | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 60,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RAINES MERILEE | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Robins Jason Shand | officer | Award / grant | 15,441 | 68,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Robins Jason Shand | officer | Award / grant | 14,024 | 14,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Warden Charles M | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 100,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Warden Charles M | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Williams Leslie J. | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 65,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | LINDSTROM RICHARD L MD | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 260,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hong Seung Suh | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hong Seung Suh | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 60,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Graves Adrienne L | director | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Graves Adrienne L | director | Award / grant | 14,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 394,696 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 394,696 | 694,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 394,696 | 394,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Dugel Pravin | director | Gift | 394,696 | 2,618,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Robinson David Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 136,000 | 136,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Robinson David Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 416,000 | 416,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Robins Jason Shand | officer | Award / grant | 33,000 | 33,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Award / grant | 79,112 | 271,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meyers Steve Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 64,900 | 217,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meyers Steve Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 197,650 | 197,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Award / grant | 64,900 | 342,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Nayak Sanjay | officer | Award / grant | 197,650 | 197,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Award / grant | 240,932 | 240,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Anderman Todd | officer | Award / grant | 64,900 | 152,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Anderman Todd | officer | Award / grant | 197,650 | 197,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Notman Donald | officer | Award / grant | 79,112 | 389,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Notman Donald | officer | Award / grant | 240,932 | 240,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Kaiser Peter | officer | Award / grant | 240,932 | 240,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Heier Jeffrey S. | officer | Award / grant | 79,112 | 326,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Award / grant | 79,112 | 326,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Waheed Nadia | officer | Award / grant | 240,932 | 240,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Saroj Namrata | officer | Award / grant | 79,112 | 254,620 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.