OCGNOcugen, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.06 · now $1.00 (2026-09-16, −5.8% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OCGN has typically landed between $0.71 and $1.62 — a range of −32.7% to +52.4% from the issuance price $1.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,931 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-12-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OCGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$0.7137worst · -32.7%$1.62best · +52.4%
  • now $0.9984 (-5.8%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $0.998 (-5.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8492–$1.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.7137–$1.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,931 windows spanning 2014-12-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-09-06−92.1%−92.1%+0.7%
2019-09-11−89.5%−91.2%+0.0%
2019-09-09−89.4%−92.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-12-03+787.8%−4.0%+824.1%
2020-12-02+777.7%−8.8%+777.7%
2020-11-30+768.3%−8.8%+768.3%

2,931 overlapping windows · 2014-12-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
+7.9%
n=12
Feb
42%
+45.1%
n=12
Mar
33%
−2.3%
n=12
Apr
42%
+5.9%
n=12
May
42%
−5.9%
n=12
Jun
42%
−1.5%
n=12
Jul
50%
+9.9%
n=12
Aug
42%
+6.2%
n=12
Sep
25%
−15.2%
n=12
Oct
36%
−2.9%
n=11
Nov
27%
−19.9%
n=11
Dec
55%
+38.4%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$2$12026-09-09: 2 insider sales, $589K — Musunuri Shankar …2026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $26K — Johnson-Greene Treerita Essalima2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $26K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $589K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Musunuri Shankar — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Musunuri Shankar — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Johnson-Greene Treerita Essalima — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Musunuri ShankardirectorSale468,727 @ $1.12$525K−9.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,487,197Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09Musunuri ShankardirectorSale57,264 @ $1.12$64K−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,088,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Johnson-Greene Treerita EssalimaofficerPurchase21,000 @ $1.23$26K+4.2% of holding+12.6%not yet — horizon still open521,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Zhang JungedirectorAward / grant170,100170,100Form 4
2026-06-11Chandrasekhar SatishchandrandirectorAward / grant170,100170,100Form 4
2026-06-11Coleman BlaisedirectorAward / grant170,100170,100Form 4
2026-06-11Kompella UdaydirectorAward / grant170,100170,100Form 4
2026-06-11Castillo KirstendirectorAward / grant170,100170,100Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise66,9291,359,316Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise112,2051,292,387Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise15,0001,180,182Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise15,0000Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise112,2050Form 4
2026-04-01Zhang JungedirectorOption exercise66,9290Form 4
2026-01-02Musunuri ShankardirectorAward / grant3,123,2014,955,924Form 4
2026-01-02Ramachandran RameshofficerAward / grant207,300209,100Form 4
2026-01-02Ramachandran RameshofficerAward / grant310,950310,950Form 4
2026-01-02Musunuri ShankardirectorAward / grant3,123,2013,123,201Form 4
2025-06-05Zhang JungedirectorAward / grant151,316151,316Form 4
2025-06-05Coleman BlaisedirectorAward / grant151,316151,316Form 4
2025-06-05Castillo KirstendirectorAward / grant151,316151,316Form 4
2025-06-05Kompella UdaydirectorAward / grant151,316151,316Form 4
2025-06-05Chandrasekhar SatishchandrandirectorAward / grant151,316151,316Form 4
2025-01-03Musunuri ShankardirectorWithheld for tax177,1461,832,723Form 4
2025-01-03Upadhyay ArunofficerWithheld for tax41,633306,197Form 4
2025-01-02Ramachandran RameshofficerAward / grant350,146350,146Form 4
2025-01-02Qamar HumaofficerAward / grant1,145,4681,145,468Form 4
2025-01-02Musunuri ShankardirectorAward / grant1,827,4851,827,485Form 4
2025-01-02Upadhyay ArunofficerAward / grant730,994730,994Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.