OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.25 · now $18.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OCFC has typically landed between $15.80 and $21.03 — a range of −13.4% to +15.2% from the issuance price $18.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OCFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.8worst · -13.4%$21.03best · +15.2%
  • now $18.25 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.24 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.11–$19.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.8–$21.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−48.4%−48.4%+0.4%
2009-02-05−44.5%−44.5%+3.6%
2020-02-20−43.1%−48.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-09+48.4%+0.0%+62.2%
2009-03-11+48.3%+0.0%+48.3%
2009-03-05+47.4%−9.0%+47.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Feb
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.5%
n=20
May
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
65%
+3.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$162026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $104K — Schaeffer Brian2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — BURAN JOHN R2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M↑ buys↓ salesother Schaeffer Brian — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BURAN JOHN R — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Schaeffer BrianotherSale5,500 @ $18.91$104K−6.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open83,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07BURAN JOHN RdirectorSale113,463 @ $19.40$2.2M−100.0% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Yoh Caren CdirectorAward / grant52,26252,262Form 4
2026-06-01Yoh Caren CdirectorAward / grant52,26252,262Form 4
2026-06-01BURAN JOHN RdirectorAward / grant113,329113,329Form 4
2026-06-01BURAN JOHN RdirectorAward / grant113,265113,265Form 4
2026-06-01DIorio Steven JdirectorAward / grant52,19052,190Form 4
2026-06-01GRASSI LOUIS CdirectorAward / grant104,737104,737Form 4
2026-06-01Han Sam Sang KidirectorAward / grant65,32365,323Form 4
2026-06-01DelliBovi Alfred AdirectorAward / grant52,26252,262Form 4
2026-06-01GRASSI LOUIS CdirectorAward / grant104,737104,737Form 4
2026-06-01Han Sam Sang KidirectorAward / grant65,32365,323Form 4
2026-06-01BURAN JOHN RdirectorAward / grant113,329113,329Form 4
2026-06-01BURAN JOHN RdirectorAward / grant113,265113,265Form 4
2026-06-01DelliBovi Alfred AdirectorAward / grant52,26252,262Form 4
2026-06-01DIorio Steven JdirectorAward / grant52,19052,190Form 4
2026-03-04Maher ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax14,147368,621Form 4
2026-03-04Lebel Joseph IIIdirectorWithheld for tax9,499320,152Form 4
2026-03-04Barrett Patrick SeanofficerWithheld for tax5,643147,350Form 4
2026-03-04Tsimbinos Steven JamesofficerWithheld for tax4,629202,999Form 4
2026-03-04ESTEP MICHELE BotherWithheld for tax4,629177,682Form 4
2026-03-04Berninger DavidofficerWithheld for tax3,54199,708Form 4
2026-03-04Schaeffer BrianotherWithheld for tax1,83788,568Form 4
2026-03-01Lebel Joseph IIIdirectorDisposition31,303329,651Form 4
2026-03-01Maher ChristopherdirectorDisposition34,149382,768Form 4
2026-03-01Tsimbinos Steven JamesofficerDisposition17,075207,628Form 4
2026-03-01Barrett Patrick SeanofficerDisposition18,972152,993Form 4
2026-03-01ESTEP MICHELE BotherDisposition17,075182,311Form 4
2026-02-27Wilson-Scott DaliladirectorAward / grant2,7699,117Form 4
2026-02-27Murphy Joseph M. Jr.directorAward / grant2,769182,964Form 4
2026-02-27Maher ChristopherdirectorAward / grant28,904373,562Form 4
2026-02-27Maher ChristopherdirectorAward / grant43,355416,917Form 4
2026-02-27Katsoulis NicosdirectorAward / grant2,76931,096Form 4
2026-02-27Tsimbinos Steven JamesofficerAward / grant13,844203,938Form 4
2026-02-27Tsimbinos Steven JamesofficerAward / grant20,765224,703Form 4
2026-02-27TORRES GRACE CdirectorAward / grant2,76924,158Form 4
2026-02-27COSCIA ANTHONY RdirectorAward / grant2,76960,489Form 4
2026-02-27Lebel Joseph IIIdirectorAward / grant26,304321,502Form 4
2026-02-27Lebel Joseph IIIdirectorAward / grant39,452360,954Form 4
2026-02-27Farris Jack M.directorAward / grant2,76922,406Form 4
2026-02-27Guadagno Kimberly MdirectorAward / grant2,76920,906Form 4
2026-02-27ESTEP MICHELE BotherAward / grant13,844178,621Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.