OCOwens Corningas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $126.59 · now $126.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OC has typically landed between $107.52 and $145.50 — a range of −15.1% to +14.9% from the issuance price $126.59.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($126.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $126.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$107.52worst · -15.1%$145.5best · +14.9%
  • now $126.59 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $129.04 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $121.05–$137.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.52–$145.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-04−61.6%−61.6%+6.1%
2009-02-05−61.6%−61.7%+5.9%
2009-02-06−56.4%−63.2%+1.6%
3 best
2009-03-06+106.0%+0.0%+106.0%
2009-03-17+99.5%+0.0%+99.5%
2009-03-30+98.4%+0.0%+98.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+4.1%
n=18
Feb
37%
−4.0%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+9.1%
n=19
May
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
37%
−3.5%
n=19
Oct
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$159$962026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $130K — Marcon Rachel Barthelemy2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $84K — Marcon Rachel Barthelemy2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $233K — Doerfler Mari2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $66K — Doerfler Mari2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $66K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $317K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $130K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Marcon Rachel Barthelemy — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Marcon Rachel Barthelemy — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Doerfler Mari — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Doerfler Mari — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Marcon Rachel BarthelemyofficerSale900 @ $144.07$130K−4.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,449Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Marcon Rachel BarthelemyofficerSale700 @ $120.71$84K−4.2% of holding+27.1%not yet — horizon still open15,848Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Doerfler MariofficerSale1,926 @ $120.92$233K−38.4% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open3,093Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12Doerfler MariofficerSale441 @ $149.00$66K−7.8% of holding+3.1%−14.5%5,239Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Marcon Rachel BarthelemyofficerSale1,357 @ $145.41$197K−10.1% of holding−9.2%−42.8%12,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07MORRIS W HOWARDdirectorSale272 @ $144.29$39K−0.6% of holding+2.3%−5.0%41,722Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-21Ball Christopher OofficerSale2,113 @ $165.46$350K−7.4% of holding−4.2%−13.1%26,263Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14Mendez-Andino JoseofficerSale1,821 @ $179.22$326K−13.3% of holding−10.9%−21.8%11,853Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-11Fister Todd WdirectorSale9,869 @ $180.00$1.8M−25.9% of holding−13.4%−19.2%28,174Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Beredo Gina A.officerSale3,125 @ $183.49$573K−12.2% of holding−12.9%−23.1%22,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-06Del Monaco NicolasofficerSale1,750 @ $183.97$322K−13.1% of holding−16.1%−26.7%11,635Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Mendez-Andino JoseofficerSale218 @ $183.97$40K−1.6% of holding−16.1%−26.7%13,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Mendez-Andino JoseofficerSale246 @ $181.00$45K−2.1% of holding−14.6%−23.2%11,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Mendez-Andino JoseofficerSale318 @ $180.28$57K−2.7% of holding−14.8%−26.7%11,503Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-13Smith GunnerdirectorSale17,450 @ $191.19$3.3M−48.1% of holding−4.2%−30.7%18,866Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

216 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Collins Jonathan MarkofficerAward / grant19,50419,504Form 4
2026-08-10Marcon Rachel BarthelemyofficerAward / grant6,50122,349Form 4
2026-08-10Del Monaco NicolasofficerAward / grant6,50127,186Form 4
2026-08-10Canovas De La Nuez Jose ManuelofficerAward / grant3,25018,955Form 4
2026-08-07Lonergan Edward FdirectorAward / grant58154,958Form 4
2026-08-07Collins Michelle TdirectorAward / grant3702,918Form 4
2026-08-07Nimocks Suzanne PdirectorAward / grant32136,938Form 4
2026-08-07CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant31916,311Form 4
2026-08-07FESTA ALFRED EdirectorAward / grant31513,296Form 4
2026-08-07Elsner AdriennedirectorAward / grant31219,099Form 4
2026-08-07Martin Paul EdwarddirectorAward / grant2968,338Form 4
2026-08-07Williams John DaviddirectorAward / grant29654,752Form 4
2026-08-06Williams John DaviddirectorAward / grant28454,456Form 4
2026-08-06Lonergan Edward FdirectorAward / grant27354,377Form 4
2026-08-06Nimocks Suzanne PdirectorAward / grant11036,617Form 4
2026-08-06Elsner AdriennedirectorAward / grant9818,787Form 4
2026-08-06Mendez-Andino JoseofficerAward / grant7724,507Form 4
2026-08-06FESTA ALFRED EdirectorAward / grant6812,981Form 4
2026-08-06CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant6715,992Form 4
2026-08-06Martin Paul EdwarddirectorAward / grant428,042Form 4
2026-07-28Canovas De La Nuez Jose ManuelofficerWithheld for tax1,07015,705Form 4
2026-05-08Lonergan Edward FdirectorAward / grant75054,103Form 4
2026-05-08Collins Michelle TdirectorAward / grant4782,548Form 4
2026-05-08Nimocks Suzanne PdirectorAward / grant41436,507Form 4
2026-05-08CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant40715,925Form 4
2026-05-08FESTA ALFRED EdirectorAward / grant40712,913Form 4
2026-05-08Martin Paul EdwarddirectorAward / grant3828,000Form 4
2026-05-08Williams John DaviddirectorAward / grant38254,172Form 4
2026-05-08Elsner AdriennedirectorAward / grant38218,689Form 4
2026-05-01Fister Todd WdirectorAward / grant8,14753,099Form 4
2026-04-09Williams John DaviddirectorAward / grant36753,790Form 4
2026-04-09Lonergan Edward FdirectorAward / grant35153,353Form 4
2026-04-09Mannen Maryann T.directorAward / grant16327,410Form 4
2026-04-09Nimocks Suzanne PdirectorAward / grant14036,093Form 4
2026-04-09Elsner AdriennedirectorAward / grant12518,307Form 4
2026-04-09Mendez-Andino JoseofficerAward / grant10124,430Form 4
2026-04-09FESTA ALFRED EdirectorAward / grant8512,506Form 4
2026-04-09CORDEIRO EDUARDO EdirectorAward / grant8515,518Form 4
2026-04-09Martin Paul EdwarddirectorAward / grant527,618Form 4
2026-04-06Doerfler MariofficerWithheld for tax1,1675,019Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-24$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2025-11-152025-10-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-22$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-11-152024-10-29$15–50K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2022-09-152022-08-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-05-062022-04-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-03-082022-02-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-01-112018-12-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-12-102018-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.