OBK · TickerCove

OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.56 · now $53.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OBK has typically landed between $47.30 and $60.99 — a range of −11.7% to +13.9% from the issuance price $53.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,080 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-05-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$53.56 · 93% of range

$31.98 low$55.21 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.1%

typical move · IQR 12.0%

−11.7%worst (p90)+13.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OBK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $53.56 (+0.0%)
typical $54.17 (+1.1%)
middle 50% $50.97–$57.37
90% range $47.3–$60.99

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,080 windows spanning 2018-05-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−46.1%	−46.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−45.8%	−45.8%	+0.7%
2020-02-18	−45.7%	−45.7%	+0.8%
3 best
2020-07-09	+36.8%	+0.0%	+36.8%
2021-02-10	+34.1%	−1.3%	+34.1%
2021-02-11	+34.0%	+0.0%	+35.9%

2,080 overlapping windows · 2018-05-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+2.8%

n=8

Feb

63%

+1.1%

n=8

Mar

25%

−5.6%

n=8

Apr

50%

−0.4%

n=8

May

63%

+0.9%

n=8

Jun

67%

+2.4%

n=9

Jul

78%

+5.4%

n=9

Aug

33%

−1.6%

n=9

Sep

33%

−3.9%

n=9

Oct

75%

+2.7%

n=8

Nov

75%

+4.3%

n=8

Dec

63%

+1.1%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Jones Cecil W.	director	Purchase	3,700 @ $53.86	$199K	+26.5% of holding	+0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	17,647	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-04	Jones Cecil W.	director	Purchase	8,500 @ $34.71	$295K	+201.9% of holding	+7.3%	+27.0%	12,709	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Purchase	2,250 @ $34.95	$79K	+17.9% of holding	+6.4%	+32.7%	14,812	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29	Hall Martin Lance	officer	Purchase	1,500 @ $34.50	$52K	+5.3% of holding	+6.4%	+32.7%	30,011	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29	Brolly Stephen H	officer	Purchase	700 @ $34.94	$24K	+3.2% of holding	+6.4%	+32.7%	22,324	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29	Luffey Gary E.	director	Purchase	487 @ $34.78	$17K	+0.3% of holding	+6.4%	+32.7%	160,605	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29	Luffey Gary E.	director	Purchase	13 @ $34.80	$452	+0.0% of holding	+6.4%	+32.7%	160,618	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-28	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Purchase	2,250 @ $34.80	$78K	+21.8% of holding	+6.5%	+30.4%	12,562	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-27	Moore Preston	officer	Purchase	6,500 @ $34.27	$223K	+13.4% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	54,882	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Crotwell Jim	officer	Purchase	3,000 @ $34.32	$103K	+14.0% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	24,475	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Moore Preston	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $34.25	$34K	+66.7% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	2,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	D'Agostino James Samuel Jr.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $33.93	$34K	+2.1% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	47,917	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Mills Drake	director	Purchase	800 @ $34.08	$27K	+0.5% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	148,634	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	McGee Derek	officer	Purchase	732 @ $34.25	$25K	+99.6% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	1,467	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Mills Drake	director	Purchase	400 @ $34.02	$14K	+11.5% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	3,866	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	McGee Derek	officer	Purchase	236 @ $34.01	$8K	+1.5% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	16,340	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Brolly Stephen H	officer	Purchase	214 @ $34.10	$7K	+1.0% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	21,538	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Brolly Stephen H	officer	Purchase	86 @ $34.14	$3K	+0.4% of holding	+8.0%	+33.2%	21,624	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Farr Meryl Kennedy	director	Option exercise	407	813	Form 4
2026-08-20	Farr Meryl Kennedy	director	Option exercise	407	3,205	Form 4
2026-08-20	Farr Meryl Kennedy	director	Option exercise	407	3,205	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Withheld for tax	593	19,046	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	2,226	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	19,639	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	19,639	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	19,639	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	19,639	Form 4
2026-08-19	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	2,226	19,639	Form 4
2026-08-05	Jones Michael Aubrey	director	Gift	500	210,674	Form 4
2026-06-17	Mills Drake	director	Withheld for tax	10,338	186,302	Form 4
2026-06-17	Mills Drake	director	Option exercise	25,947	103,788	Form 4
2026-06-17	Mills Drake	director	Option exercise	25,947	196,640	Form 4
2026-06-17	Mills Drake	director	Option exercise	25,947	196,640	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	336,715	337,877	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,572	97,572	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,574	97,574	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,573	97,573	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	43,996	43,996	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	336,715	337,877	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,572	97,572	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,574	97,574	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	97,573	97,573	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	43,996	43,996	Form 4
2026-05-20	Mills Drake	director	Withheld for tax	2,068	170,693	Form 4
2026-05-20	Hall Martin Lance	officer	Withheld for tax	619	32,294	Form 4
2026-05-20	McGee Derek	officer	Withheld for tax	391	19,910	Form 4
2026-05-20	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Withheld for tax	271	16,562	Form 4
2026-05-20	Brolly Stephen H	officer	Withheld for tax	231	23,727	Form 4
2026-05-20	Crotwell Jim	officer	Withheld for tax	219	12,644	Form 4
2026-05-20	McGee Derek	officer	Option exercise	1,199	1,198	Form 4
2026-05-20	Moore Preston	officer	Option exercise	959	959	Form 4
2026-05-20	Mills Drake	director	Option exercise	5,061	5,061	Form 4
2026-05-20	Brolly Stephen H	officer	Option exercise	839	839	Form 4
2026-05-20	Wallace Willliam J IV	officer	Option exercise	959	959	Form 4
2026-05-20	Hall Martin Lance	officer	Option exercise	1,514	1,514	Form 4
2026-05-20	Crotwell Jim	officer	Option exercise	858	858	Form 4
2026-05-20	Moore Preston	officer	Option exercise	959	56,643	Form 4
2026-05-20	Mills Drake	director	Option exercise	5,061	172,761	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i