OBIOOrchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.01 · now $6.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OBIO has typically landed between $4.34 and $8.72 — a range of −27.8% to +45.2% from the issuance price $6.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,472 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OBIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.34worst · -27.8%$8.72best · +45.2%
  • now $6.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.01 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.49–$6.53
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.34–$8.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,472 windows spanning 2020-08-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-06-01−59.5%−59.9%+0.0%
2023-05-25−57.6%−57.6%+5.6%
2023-06-06−57.2%−57.6%+0.0%
3 best
2023-08-18+102.1%−4.7%+102.1%
2023-02-02+99.3%−9.0%+99.3%
2023-02-09+92.5%−0.6%+117.7%

1,472 overlapping windows · 2020-08-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
17%
−5.0%
n=6
Feb
67%
+3.1%
n=6
Mar
33%
+11.6%
n=6
Apr
17%
−12.1%
n=6
May
33%
+6.3%
n=6
Jun
50%
−5.2%
n=6
Jul
17%
−3.7%
n=6
Aug
33%
+1.8%
n=6
Sep
57%
+3.8%
n=7
Oct
50%
+2.0%
n=6
Nov
83%
+13.9%
n=6
Dec
67%
+1.5%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $48K — Hochman David P2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $74K — Sherman Darren2026-08-26: 1 insider purchase, $11K — Sherman Darren2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $61K — Sherman Darren2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $64K — Sherman Darren2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $58K — Sherman Darren2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $19K — Hochman David P2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Aryeh Jason2026-05-15: 2 insider purchases, $54K — Aryeh Jason, Hochman David P2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $83K — Fain Eric S2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $132 — RTW INVESTMENTS, LP2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Hochman David P2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $20K — Hochman David P2025-09-19: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Aryeh Jason2025-08-25: 3 insider purchases, $28K — Fain Eric S, Sherman Darren, Taylor Andrew Lawrence2025-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $15K — Hochman David P2025-08: 8 open-market purchases, $16.1M2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $20K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $43K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $1322026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $139K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $19K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $58K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $64K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $11K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $61K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $48K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $74K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Sherman Darren — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sherman Darren — Purchase on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sherman Darren — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sherman Darren — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sherman Darren — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Aryeh Jason — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Aryeh Jason — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fain Eric S — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RTW INVESTMENTS, LP — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Aryeh Jason — Purchase on 2025-09-19, filed same daydirector Fain Eric S — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed same daydirector Sherman Darren — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed same dayofficer Taylor Andrew Lawrence — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed same daydirector Hochman David P — Purchase on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Hochman David PdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $4.79$48K+0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,070,746Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-01Sherman DarrendirectorSale15,000 @ $4.94$74K−1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,134,402Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26Sherman DarrendirectorPurchase2,000 @ $5.33$11Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Sherman DarrendirectorSale15,000 @ $4.09$61K−1.3% of holding+18.4%not yet — horizon still open1,154,327Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01Sherman DarrendirectorSale15,000 @ $4.27$64K−1.3% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open1,169,327Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Sherman DarrendirectorSale15,000 @ $3.87$58K−1.3% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open1,184,327Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Hochman David PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $3.83$19K+0.5% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open1,064,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Aryeh JasondirectorPurchase665 @ $3.75$2K+0.6% of holding−3.1%not yet — horizon still open118,118Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15Aryeh JasondirectorPurchase8,971 @ $3.90$35K+8.3% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open117,453Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hochman David PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $3.77$19K+0.5% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open1,059,029Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Fain Eric SdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $4.13$83K+27.9% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open91,709Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-27RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorSale32 @ $4.13$132−0.0% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open9,556,063Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Hochman David PdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $4.29$43K+0.9% of holding+2.2%+25.0%1,086,467Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-14Hochman David PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $4.07$20K+0.8% of holding+12.2%−8.3%612,822Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-19Aryeh JasondirectorPurchase1,000 @ $2.45$2K+0.9% of holding+58.7%+95.8%108,482Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25Fain Eric SdirectorPurchase5,760 @ $2.61$15K+8.7% of holding−10.1%+58.8%71,709Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25Sherman DarrendirectorPurchase3,000 @ $2.62$8K+0.3% of holding−10.1%+58.8%926,837Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerPurchase2,000 @ $2.55$5K+0.4% of holding−10.1%+58.8%482,788Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21Hochman David PdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $2.49$15K+0.9% of holding−6.8%+53.9%651,460Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-04RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorPurchase3,636,363 @ $2.75$10.0Mownership Δ n/a−0.5%+42.4%3,636,363Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Hochman David PdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $2.75$55K+6.1% of holding−0.5%+42.4%349,331Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLCdirectorPurchase1,500,000 @ $2.75$4.1Mownership Δ n/a+9.3%+52.3%1,500,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-01PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLCdirectorPurchase700,000 @ $2.75$1.9M+15.2% of holding+9.3%+52.3%5,292,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-26Fain Eric SdirectorSale2,683 @ $3.05$8K−5.0% of holding+10.0%+31.8%50,949Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-30RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorPurchase49,900 @ $2.99$149K+0.6% of holding−10.3%−3.1%8,306,063Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $2.53$126K+0.6% of holding+5.4%+25.1%8,256,163Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-23Hochman David PdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $4.66$19K+0.7% of holding+18.4%−44.7%579,498Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-19Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerPurchase1,000 @ $4.83$5K+0.3% of holding+10.4%−40.2%344,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18Hochman David PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $4.91$25K+0.9% of holding+4.6%−36.8%575,498Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Hochman David PdirectorWithheld for tax3,2831,067,463Form 4
2026-09-10Hochman David PdirectorWithheld for tax3,283432,916Form 4
2026-08-26Sherman DarrendirectorWithheld for tax4,9251,149,402Form 4
2026-08-26Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerWithheld for tax3,076589,989Form 4
2026-08-26Aiello JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax20318,441Form 4
2026-08-12Fain Eric SdirectorWithheld for tax5,14599,630Form 4
2026-08-12Mack John ProsperdirectorWithheld for tax4,88566,544Form 4
2026-08-12Cleary ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax4,23829,153Form 4
2026-08-12Pacitti DaviddirectorWithheld for tax3,76154,750Form 4
2026-06-24Mack John ProsperdirectorWithheld for tax3,51071,429Form 4
2026-06-24Cleary ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax3,51033,391Form 4
2026-06-24Fain Eric SdirectorWithheld for tax4,261104,775Form 4
2026-06-24Pacitti DaviddirectorWithheld for tax3,78458,511Form 4
2026-06-23Fain Eric SdirectorAward / grant21,27721,277Form 4
2026-06-23Mack John ProsperdirectorAward / grant34,65374,939Form 4
2026-06-23Pacitti DaviddirectorAward / grant17,32762,295Form 4
2026-06-23Pacitti DaviddirectorAward / grant21,27721,277Form 4
2026-06-23Fain Eric SdirectorAward / grant17,327109,036Form 4
2026-06-23Connealy Pamela AnndirectorAward / grant21,27721,277Form 4
2026-06-23Connealy Pamela AnndirectorAward / grant17,32766,038Form 4
2026-06-23Cleary ChrisdirectorAward / grant42,55342,553Form 4
2026-06-23Aryeh JasondirectorAward / grant42,55342,553Form 4
2026-06-10Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerWithheld for tax36,352593,065Form 4
2026-06-10Hochman David PdirectorWithheld for tax3,283436,199Form 4
2026-06-10Hochman David PdirectorWithheld for tax3,2831,060,746Form 4
2026-05-28Sherman DarrendirectorWithheld for tax4,9251,199,327Form 4
2026-05-28Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerWithheld for tax3,076629,417Form 4
2026-04-27RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorExercise1,250,0322,386,331Form 4
2026-04-27RTW INVESTMENTS, LPdirectorExercise1,250,0329,556,095Form 4
2026-03-25Sherman DarrendirectorWithheld for tax33,3171,204,252Form 4
2026-03-25Hochman David PdirectorWithheld for tax32,4381,054,029Form 4
2026-03-25Aiello JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax24118,644Form 4
2026-02-12Aiello JoshuaofficerAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-02-12Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerAward / grant181,000632,493Form 4
2026-02-12Hochman David PdirectorAward / grant504,0001,076,467Form 4
2026-02-12Sherman DarrendirectorAward / grant397,0001,237,569Form 4
2026-02-05Cleary ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax67636,901Form 4
2026-01-28Sherman DarrendirectorAward / grant34,97434,974Form 4
2026-01-02Sherman DarrendirectorWithheld for tax5,588840,569Form 4
2026-01-02Taylor Andrew LawrenceofficerWithheld for tax3,452451,493Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.