Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.11 · now $11.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OBDC has typically landed between $10.06 and $12.03 — a range of −9.4% to +8.3% from the issuance price $11.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,780 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OBDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.23 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.85–$11.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.06–$12.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-24 | −37.7% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +47.5% | +0.0% | +69.5% |
| 2020-03-18 | +33.7% | −11.9% | +49.3% |
| 2020-03-24 | +26.8% | +0.0% | +44.3% |
1,780 overlapping windows · 2019-07-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $11.34 | $11K | +4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,144 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 2,325 @ $11.29 | $26K | +3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 675 @ $11.29 | $8K | +2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 2,600 @ $11.31 | $29K | +4.3% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,157 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $11.31 | $5K | +1.6% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $11.21 | $11K | +5.0% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,144 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 5,525 @ $11.32 | $63K | +10.0% of holding | +4.0% | −6.2% | 60,557 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 4,475 @ $11.32 | $51K | +22.4% of holding | +4.0% | −6.2% | 24,443 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 672 @ $11.92 | $8K | +3.5% of holding | −0.0% | −10.6% | 20,144 | Form 4 · filed 61 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kaye Eric A. | director | Purchase | 328 @ $11.90 | $4K | +1.7% of holding | −0.0% | −10.6% | 19,472 | Form 4 · filed 61 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Reddy Neena | officer | Purchase | 7,890 @ $13.06 | $103K | ownership Δ n/a | −5.0% | −19.6% | 7,890 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Packer Craig | director | Purchase | 41,600 @ $11.75 | $489K | ownership Δ n/a | +5.6% | −11.8% | 41,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 25,000 @ $11.75 | $294K | +83.2% of holding | +5.6% | −11.8% | 55,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Temple Chris | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $12.03 | $96K | +15.7% of holding | +8.0% | −10.0% | 59,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Weiler Melissa | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.99 | $120K | +25.2% of holding | +9.9% | −11.0% | 49,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 14,703 @ $14.19 | $209K | +95.9% of holding | −5.5% | −20.9% | 30,032 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Purchase | 850 @ $14.19 | $12K | +5.9% of holding | −5.5% | −20.9% | 15,329 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Woolridge Victor | director | Purchase | 6,915 @ $14.45 | $100K | +32.5% of holding | −3.3% | −22.0% | 28,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Temple Chris | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $14.80 | $222K | +41.7% of holding | +4.0% | −11.3% | 51,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Award / grant | 11,979 | 14,479 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Award / grant | 12,468 | 19,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Award / grant | 11,979 | 14,479 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Nicholson Logan | officer | Award / grant | 12,468 | 19,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Weiler Melissa | director | Award / grant | 11,734 | 39,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Woolridge Victor | director | Award / grant | 6,679 | 20,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Weiler Melissa | director | Award / grant | 11,734 | 39,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Woolridge Victor | director | Award / grant | 6,679 | 20,926 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.